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Red tide -- James Holmes

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Red Tide

Just how strong is China's navy, really?

BY JAMES HOLMES | AUGUST 12, 2013

In late July, Chinese President Xi Jinping shared his views on sea power and maritime territorial disputes. Beijing is amenable to "shelving disputes and carrying out joint development" in waters such as the South China Seawhere, according to the official line, it enjoys "indisputable sovereignty." It will employ "peaceful means and negotiations to settle disputes and strive to safeguard peace and stability," but it won't "abandon its legitimate rights and interests." Beijing asserts sovereignty over the waters, islands, and atolls within what it calls the "nine-dashed line," a line that encloses the vast majority of the South China Sea, including huge swaths of the exclusive economic zones belonging to Southeast Asian states.
Xi appears to be saying that China is prepared to postpone resolution of these disputes for the sake of working alongside Southeast Asians to tap the region's natural resources, and that it is willing to negotiate. That sounds reasonable. But he also seems to be saying that China has ruled out compromise and will continue building up its maritime strength to enforce its will. If Xi is sincere in all these statements, then the only real question left is when Asian powers will acquiesce meekly. In other words, China's neighbors need not formally surrender control of the waters and features within the nine-dashed line yet -- but in the end Beijing will give no ground. I suppose making Asians an offer they can't refuse is one way of getting to yes.
Levity aside, there's little reason to doubt Xi's sincerity about the importance China affixes to "core interests": shorthand for the interests for which the nation is prepared to fight, such as Taiwan and Tibet. And it is building up the capacity to fight and win. While there are many unknowns regarding the quality of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy's equipment and crews, it boasts the most potential of any Asian navy.
China's maritime project is hurtling along at breakneck velocity. The PLA Navy's first aircraft carrier has taken to the seas. Shipyards are apparently starting to fabricate a second one, while the naval leadership has evidently settled on a designfor guided-missile destroyers (DDGs), which ride shotgun with any carrier task force to defend against air, surface, and subsurface threats. The navy also has help from non-naval services. The nation's first unified coast guard debuted in July and immediately set sail to enforce Beijing's claims to islands and waters in the East and South China seas.
The major unknowns concern the quality of PLA Navy equipment and crews. First consider the hardware: You can flip openJane's Fighting Ships or visit the fine folks at the consultancy GlobalSecurity to find estimates of what various armed services plan to procure, as well as technical characteristics -- ranges, payloads, rates of fire, and so forth -- illustrating how military gear should perform. We can estimate, for example, that by 2020, China will field over 70 conventional and nuclear-powered attack submarines, along with 84 destroyers and frigates, two aircraft carriers, and an assortment of smaller but still lethal craft. But it's impossible to tell in advance how weaponry and platforms will function until put to the test of combat. (This is true even of your own hardware. Having been part of the first combat use of Tomahawk cruise missiles, I can tell you we heaved a small sigh of relief when that first volley of missiles went off as advertised.) Unable to test adversaries' equipment, foreign observers rely mostly on guesswork to foresee how enemy armaments will perform under real-world conditions and thus how great a threat they pose.
For instance, Chinese naval specialists have been touting the PLA Navy's latest DDG designs as comparable to the U.S. Navy's Aegis ships, which carry state-of-the-art systems in air and missile defense. Are they? This possibility spooks U.S. maritime strategists. China's naval ambitions remain largely confined to the China seas and Western Pacific, within reach not just of the fleet but of an array of land-based weapons. Used with submarines, missile-armed patrol craft, shore-based tactical aircraft, and anti-ship missiles, an Aegis-equivalent warship would establish a serious Chinese deterrent capability in East Asian waters.
Aegis is a combined radar, computer, and fire-control system that has been around for 30 years, ever since USS Ticonderoga, the U.S. Navy's first Aegis cruiser, put to sea. But since then the U.S. Navy has made constant improvements to the system. It's entirely plausible that Chinese DDGs -- most notably the Type 052D DDG unveiled in 2012 -- are equivalent to some generation of Aegis. But is the Type 052D a 1980s, 1990s, or more recent Aegis vintage? If it's a Ticonderoga equivalent, it poses only modest cause for concern. If Chinese weaponeers have managed to leap to near parity, however, the new DDG represents an ominous development indeed.
Until the PLA Navy starts operating at sea more and using its hardware under realistic conditions, it will be tough for outsiders to glimpse inside these black boxes. This is true not just of DDGs but of stealth fighters, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and myriad other PLA systems that appear impressive but remain mostly untried. Many unknowns linger.
The human factor is another difficult variable to track. Strategic competition and war are human endeavors. The finest ship, airplane, or missile is no better than its user. How mariners perform amid the stresses of battle decides the outcomes of struggles on the high seas, but to excel in battle demands constant training and practice in peacetime. Sailors need to go to sea, a lot, to hone their skills. Yet PLA Navy operations are sporadic compared with the hectic deployment schedules customary for U.S. seafarers. Long intervals in port interrupted by the occasional short cruise provide too little experience to make seamanship, tactics, and technical proficiency second nature. Performance suffers. It's especially tough to maintain a fighting edge when one considers how seldom full-blown naval engagements take place. The U.S. Navy last battled a peer navy in 1944, when it fought Japan at Leyte Gulf. The PLA Navy has never taken on a great-power opponent.
Presently, there's reason to question the PLA Navy's battle-worthiness. If the PLA Navy operates at a higher tempo over the next decade, keeping task forces at sea for weeks or months at a time, it will evolve into a formidable force. Prospective adversaries can judge how formidable by monitoring its performance during exercises and routine at-sea operations, much as Western forces kept watch on the Soviet Navy in its heyday. Navies encounter each other at sea by chance during routine operations. Such encounters afford the opportunity to take a prospective adversary's measure, examining everything from whether its ships' hulls are rusty -- a sure sign of a poorly maintained ship and an apathetic crew -- to how smartly the officers handle their vessels on the high seas. If the PLA Navy participates in the 2014 U.S.-led RIMPAC (Rim of the Pacific) exercise, this will furnish another such opportunity. Bean-counting, then, is easy. Measuring combat effectiveness is a task of a higher, more subjective order.
But there's another, hidden variable at play. Whereas U.S. sea power is the domain of the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, Beijing thinks about its maritime power more holistically. It's not just the PLA Navy and coast guard, but merchant shipping and even the country's massive fishing fleet. And the Chinese military backs up that fleet with shore-based implements of sea power, including anti-ship ballistic missiles furnished by the army's Second Artillery Corps and tactical aircraft from the PLA Air Force. It may appear whimsical to depict a fishing trawler as a threat to a warship bristling with guns and missiles, but fishermen can gather intelligence on foreign navies. Any U.S. Navy mariner of Cold War vintage will tell you about the Soviet AGIs, or trawlers packed with high-tech electronic sensors, that used to lurk off American seaports. When a U.S. task force emerged, the AGI would dutifully follow along, monitoring the force's movements, recording its electronic emissions, and gleaning all the data it could. Fishing fleets can also lay and clear sea mines, one of the most elusive menaces to modern navies. These are useful craft around the margins.
This all-encompassing concept of sea power lets Beijing dial up or down the degree of force it brings to bear at sea, as circumstances and competitors' actions dictate. Nor is this approach new or radical. Maoist China considered the PLA Navy a force for waging "people's war at sea," a coastal defense force meant to make things tough on powerful adversaries should they approach China's coasts. For a weak China obsessed with protecting its land, it only made sense to use every seagoing asset available to mount a seaward defense. Communist China, like imperial China before it, regards the fishing fleet and the global shipping fleet as an irregular naval auxiliary. Fishermen in particular are a sort of seagoing militia. For instance, Beijing touted their contribution to victory over South Vietnam's Navy during a 1974 clash in the Paracel Islands. This way of thinking about maritime defense persists even as the PLA Navy matures into a world-class force.
Case in point: Chinese fishing boats represented the vanguard of Chinese sea power at Scarborough Shoal in 2012, when China took possession of an atoll deep within the Philippine exclusive economic zone. Chinese fishermen were first on scene. Only when a Philippine Navy frigate tried to arrest them for poaching did Beijing dispatch unarmed or lightly armed maritime-enforcement vessels -- the forerunners to today's coast guard -- to deter further Philippine action. A protracted standoff ensued, but ultimately the Philippine contingent withdrew -- leaving Scarborough Shoal in Chinese hands. Chinese hulls -- civilian, coast guard, and navy -- reportedly encase the atoll like a "cabbage," daring Manila to try to retake it.
That's textbook Chinese maritime strategy: minimal force, deployed by naval or nonnaval platforms as the situation and the naval balance warrant. China has stayed true to its Maoist traditions. It has kept its inventory of small craft strong and numerous, furthering both commercial and military purposes, even as it fills out the upper end of an oceangoing fleet with glitzy platforms like aircraft carriers and new destroyers. This continuum -- spanning from lowly fishing boats and patrol craft able to face off against weak Asian navies (like the Philippine Navy) to blue-water combatants able to duel peer navies (like the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force) on an equal footing -- is deeply embedded in China's maritime culture. While an economic downturn could slow down acquisitions, Beijing's basic approach will last as far into the future as the mariner's eye can see.
The PLA Navy, backed by the Chinese coast guard, shore-based air and missile forces, and unconventional auxiliaries from the commercial sector, can already make it tough and expensive for a peer navy to operate in China's geographical backyard. This is a force that could induce rivals to think twice before bucking China's will, and it outclasses lesser Asian navies by a wide margin. But will the Chinese navy venture outside Asia in force, mounting a standing presence in faraway theaters? Doubtful. Asserting control of China's environs is job No. 1. If Beijing's naval buildup continues along its current trajectory, the resulting force may let the nation put steel behind the many commitments it has taken on in the China seas, from the confrontation with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands to the north through the Malacca Strait to the south.
A successful naval buildup might leave ships to spare for a modest forward presence in the next-most-important theater: the Indian Ocean, the shipping lane for Persian Gulf energy supplies. Beijing sees no pressing need to venture beyond East and South Asia. So you're not about to see Chinese frigates patrolling the Mediterranean or Atlantic. Chinese leaders evince little appetite to help police an international system they deem unfair and irrational -- an artifact of Western dominance that China must amend over time. What Chinese want, and what Xi has said China will get, lies in Asia. From fighting ships to fishing boats, Beijing increasingly has the sea power to get it.
STR/AFP/Getty Images
James Holmes is professor of strategy at the Naval War College and coauthor of Red Star over the Pacific, just out in paperback. The views voiced here are his alone.


Conversation on FP.com
goldeneye
goldeneye
It's wrong to build up the Chinese to be some Super-Power.  They are merely testing technology that the USA has had for years, such as aircraft-carriers.
brutaltruth
brutaltruth
The same arguments were made about the pre-WWI German High Seas Fleet. Needless to say... whatever faults the Imperial German Navy had... they fought very well... and time in port did not seem to make them less battle ready. Quite the opposite in fact. I'd be very careful with assumptions about battle history as well. A navy is only as good as it's next training cycle. Midway won't help the USN defeat the PLAN. Only hard and realistic training will do that... combined with good fighting platforms. That is all. War is not romantic. It is a simple kill or be killed dynamic.
New commentMark as read
goldeneye
goldeneye
 brutaltruth 

But the facts are, that except for the one foray @ Jutland, the German Navy NEVER came out to fight even one more time, so in the end, the British won...
vlhcvlhc
vlhcvlhc
052D is not comparable to the Arleigh Burke, its AESA alone makes it at least a whole generation ahead of current AB Flight 2 and is in the same class as the yet to be deployed, AN/SPY-3 equipped AB Flight 3. The VLS on 052D is also bigger and already capable of launching anti-ship missiles, something the US won't be able to do completion of the LSRAM.

Denial is not just a river in Egypt, I doubt anyone with any understanding of naval technology would ever put Ticonderoga and 052D in the same sentence
DrDan2000
DrDan2000
 vlhcvlhc It is good for the discussion for someone to call the expert to accountability. Assuming Professor Holmes knows what you know, why would he write this diminution of Chinese tactical missile capabilities? What sort of public relations game is being played?
New commentMark as read
China_Rising
China_Rising
 vlhcvlhc The Type 052D is not even going to be comparable to the Type 55, which should be introduced no later than 2015. I hear from my sources that it's going to displace a breathtaking 12,000 tons.
DrDan2000
DrDan2000
Thanks to Foreign Policy for including the writings of military strategists.
There is not enough real military strategic thinking on how nations use their military capabilities to augment their foreign policies goals.

But Foreign Policy needs more global economic/financial sector writing and much more ecological analysis to be able to help readers understand the global dimensions under international relations conflicts.
goldeneye
goldeneye
 DrDan2000 

In what way does *ecological* analysis have to do, specifically, with foreign policy....?  Do you think Putin & Obama should Summit on your *Global Warming...?*

apples & oranges...
DrDan2000
DrDan2000
 goldeneye Flooding, famine, water shortages,  tens of millions of refugees, epidemic disease ... all these cross international borders, trigger ethnic rivalry, and competition for resources.  And together these raise emotional tension and desperation for governments to do something.

And that something is to promote national pride, symbolic action in disputed territories, grab for resources, etc.

Is it really that difficult to see that the human population explosion sets up international conflict? Especially when poverty, hunger, and famine drives migration across national borders - - - or pushes government leaders past rationality into desperate behavior?
Diogo Jimmy Morgado
Diogo Jimmy Morgado
Historically China never attempted much overseas expansion...lets see if that's going to change in the future...
PeterSroka
PeterSroka
 Diogo Jimmy Morgado
 It's already changing, Henry Kissinger's nostalgic analyses of the CCP-PRC predicated on his chummy relationship with Mao notwithstanding.

Kissinger views China's new seafaring expansionism in pre CCP terms. So he denies them based on deceased historical norms that no longer apply.

And yes it's very good to see James R Holmes over here at FP. More of him please.
goldeneye
goldeneye
"Until the PLA Navy starts operating at sea more and using its hardware under realistic conditions,"

Only war can tell whether these so-called *advanced* Chinese systems will work.  They certainly do NOT possess the amphibious capabilities to land troops via landing-craft on Taiwan beaches.  The Taiwanese military is very modern; and have a professional attitude, as I've seen in person, with regard to my speciality, helicopters...
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/08/12/red_tide_how_strong_is_the_chinese_navy?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full

PC, Sonia's Shikhandi -- R. Jagannathan

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Chidambaram plays Sonia’s Shikhandi, but it won’t save the rupee

by  Aug 13, 2013
The term “Shikhandi” aptly describes the role being played by P Chidambaram in this UPA dispensation. In the Mahabharata, Arjuna fights Bhishma using Shikhandi as his shield in the full knowledge that Bhishma will not fight Shikhandi, who, in an earlier birth, was a woman. She was Princess Amba, who had vowed revenge against Bhishma for scorning her love, and was reborn as Shikhandi.
To protect itself against the charge that it is anti-reform and will do only things to damage the economy, the UPA has put Chidambaram in front to play Shikhandi and ward off attacks from the markets and rating agencies.
Unfortunately for the UPA, the market is not Bhishma. And Chidambaram has compromised himself so badly in the service of the UPA that the market does not believe him too much. Trying to pretend to be both reformer and social spender with the milk of human kindness inside him, Chidambaram is a split personality.
No less a person Jagdish Bhagwati caught Chidambaram out on this in the context of his clash with Amartya Sen over the food security bill. Chidambaram claimed he liked Bhagwati’s growth focus and Sen’s compassion for the poor, but Bhagwati punctured him.  “Surprisingly, the Finance Minister, Mr Chidambaram, who is a brilliant man…has fallen victim to this fallacy. He is seduced by his (own) clever phrasing, saying that Bhagwati has a passion for growth whereas Sen has compassion for the poor. But that is precisely where he goes wrong and where we must focus to put Mr Sen in his place, which is certainly not on a pedestal. Since the 1960s, when I worked on poverty eradication in the Planning Commission when Mr Sen was hardly active in this cause, I was for growth,  not per se, but because I have compassion for the poor. Growth was a strategy; poverty eradication was the objective,” Bhagwati wrote in Business Standard.
What Chidambaram said yesterday in parliament shows that all his resolute actions are really palliatives.
Reuters
Why does Chidambaram want to “stabilise the rupee” and where does he want the rupee to stabilise?
Reuters
He began with a half-truth. “Last year, at this time, the foremost challenge to the Indian economy was the growing fiscal deficit.” Is this so? The fiscal deficit has been deteriorating for more than four years now, so the problem did not date back to last year when he took over.
Then came more red herrings. “Since the world economy is challenged, India’s economy also faces challenges.”
Is this so? Granted, the world isn’t doing too well on growth, but India ought to have been an island of growth and attracting business. But what is really happening? Kumar Mangalam Birla wants to invest in the US, not much in IndiaApollo Tyres wants to invest in Europe, not India. Cipla’s boss Yusuf Hamied even went to the extent of saying earlier this year that “the time has now come for us to say goodbye to India.”
If the world is in greater trouble, should Indian business be heading there or staying back for growth? This is what Kumar Birla had to say: “We are in 36 countries around the world. We haven’t seen such uncertainty and lack of transparency in policy anywhere,” he toldBloomberg TV earlier this year.
The world economy may be challenged, but the Indian economy has been even more challenged, thanks to sheer economic mismanagement over several years.
In fact, in a rare moment of candour in an interview to Business Standardlast week, Chidambaram indirectly admitted that the fault lay as much with his government. He said: “We have delayed taking decisions. We’ve paid a price for it.” Then why is he blaming the world for his troubles?
Next, consider what Chidambaram considers his crowning achievement of last year: containment of the fiscal deficit. He said: “In August 6, 2012, I made a statement on the path of fiscal consolidation that we intended to take…we promised to contain the fiscal deficit at 5.3 percent of GDP for 2012-13…Actual numbers are even better, and the fiscal deficit for 2012-13 stood at 4.9 percent.”
But how did he achieve this? By stamping on productive spending, not unproductive subsidies, thus worsening the economic slowdown. And were even these numbers genuine? The final fiscal deficit figure was lower in part because Chidambaram rolled over oil subsidy payments of over Rs 45,000 crore due in 2012-13 to this year, thanks to the government’s failure to adopt an accrual-based system of accounting. If he had done so, the deficit numbers would not have been so flattering.
Listen to what he thinks is his real achievement on the CAD front. He said in his speech yesterday: In 2011-12, while financing the CAD, we had to draw upon reserves to the extent of USD 12.8 billion. Last year, we had a larger CAD at USD 88.2 billion.  Nevertheless, we were able to fully and safely finance the CAD, and do even better. We added USD 3.8 billion to the reserves.  We contained the CAD at 4.8 percent of the GDP.”
The subtext is simple: blame Pranab Mukherjee for the CAD, not me. As for his “achievement” of financing the CAD and even increasing reserves by $3.8 billion, this is laughable. These reserves are not really reserves, but money raised from borrowing abroad. Anyone can raise reserves by borrowing money. It’s like borrowing money from the bank and putting it in a fixed deposit at a lower interest rate. This money came in by liberalising external commercial borrowings, allowing foreigners to invest in Indian debt, and increasing interest rates for NRI deposits. The country’s external debt is now topping $400 billion, against reserves of $277 billion (including gold), down nearly $15 billion since March 2013. The country’s reserves are just about two-thirds of its debts abroad – not exactly a brilliant achievement. The real reason why the rupee has been crashing is the rapid exit of such hot money flows – invited by Chidambaram and his predecessor – after the US Fed indicated a gradual tapering down of its quantitative easing programme.
And then, consider how he plans to deal with the problem of CAD and bring it down to 3.7 percent of GDP this year. The steps announced include import compression (gold and silver – $4 billion), raising oil prices ($1.5 billion) and raising duties on certain non-essential goods. $5.5 billion in all.
This piddly saving is, of course, not enough, so how is he going to raise more dollars? $11 billion will come in by allowing public sector companies, including oil companies, to raise quasi-sovereign dollar bonds, and easing external commercial borrowings and liberalising NRI deposit schemes.
Now, we come to the Shikhandi part. The real giveaway in Chidambaram’s statement was not only about CAD, but about his efforts to rein in the falling rupee. He said: “However, we believe that we have to do more to contain the CAD, to reduce volatility in the currency market and to stabilise the rupee.”
Most free-market economists will question the wisdom of trying to target the rupee. In fact, by letting the rupee fall, exports have begun to revive and imports are starting to come down – which is the right way to bring down the CAD, naturally. In July, exports surged by nearly 12 percent and imports fell 6 percent – which is testimony to the fact that allowing the rupee to find its own level is good for the economy and the CAD.
So why does Chidambaram want to “stabilise the rupee” and where does he want the rupee to stabilise?
The answer can only be guessed. A sharp fall in the rupee does not suit the UPA precisely because it forces the government to raise oil prices or let the subsidies rip. The subsidies are going to rip anyway because ofSonia Gandhi’s food security bill, and so Chidambaram does not want another item on the import menu to add to his woes.
He is playing Shikhandi to Sonia who wants to worsen the economic crisis for the sake of short-term electoral gains.
Chidambaram is merely trying to postpone the economy’s day of reckoning by pretending to be reformist while really enabling Sonia Gandhi to play ducks and drakes with the budget.

Leave a message...
  • Avatar

    Venkat Mahadevan 

    This sarkar is being run as a service industry for the benefit of the pseudo royals.And there are many fall guys to take the blame if things go wrong as they are going horribly wrong just now.Juggling with figures apparently is no use now, begging the US sarkar and industry to please please bring FDI into INdia is also proving futile.The so called 'social security' measures prescribed by Nobelist Amartya Sen are going to take their toll well before 2014 rolls along.And might have the opposite effect on the mango electorate.There will be hell to pay and fall guys are being lined up with Dr MMS and Chidambaram heading the line-up.

    • Avatar

      Spiritual Mind 

      REER will take its course .... hope he is aware that India need to bring down inflation .. which is expected by Oct/Nov '13 figures ,[ due to base effect ] ; unless GoI do something more stupid.
      and in such situation INR will touch 66 if not 67.

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        udayaravi 

        This government has many Shikandis to fight for them and to shield their supreme leader from any critisism though the leader takes all the credits for any achivements(?). Having IMF parented robot at the helm they want to show the world that they are pro-reformist and throwing the tax payer's money to the hollow schemes like food security. Hence we are neither here nor there and economy in shambles. Had corrupt politician brought to books at least 10% we would not to be in such a mess.

        • Avatar

          Hack47 

          Sonia Gandhi's spending is going to destroy the Indian economy. EVen a child knows that you cannot remove poverty by printing notes and distributing it. It will destroy the value of what you are printing. But why would an Italian care wht happens to India's economy.

          • Avatar

            Reddy 

            #soniarobs

            • Avatar

              the reluctant economist 

              mr jaganathan , when ben bernanke speaks markets react ; when mario monti speaks markets react;when pc speaks "sab thanda" .is he really a warrior that u project him to be or is he the best available person to give statements which nobody believes or cares or accepts . i mean why was he in the usa to talk to investors ????????? the superpower fm of an economic superpower should have people running to him , don't u think ??

            • Avatar

              SamsGhost 

              They (CONGI ministers) will crash the Rupee, then bring in their $$$ from offshore accounts to buy up even more of the country on the CHEAP. They will sell those assets and repatriate the funds before the next crisis and then do the same thing again. Rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat. We know what the CONGI model of "development" is.

              • Avatar

                ramesh indian 

                Gem of a sentence: "It’s like borrowing money from the bank and putting it in a fixed deposit at a lower interest rate".
                And a wonderful conclusion, wonderful because it has the austere beauty of unvarnished truth :
                " Chidambaram is merely trying to postpone the economy’s day of reckoning by pretending to be reformist while really enabling Sonia Gandhi to play ducks and drakes with the budget. ".
                Pity we can only appreciate the incisive analysis of compatriots like Jagannathan, not the dastardly acts of our bl**dy government.

                • Avatar

                  S S Subramanian 

                  The whole problem is the term ECONOMIC GROWTH. We are overtly concerned with the growth what ever may the cost. Every company should have more sales, and more profits every year and the companies should not only have growth, but also beat the analyst forecast. Every person get more salary than last year. The ultimate result of the growth is inflation, increase in rentals, increase in school fees etc etc. Cost of all things increase resulting that nobody is better off this year when compared to last year, except everybody is having an illusion of having more income, more assets as the house prices have increased etc etc. All of us fail to realise the growth is an illusion. If every company has to have increased sales, who is going to purchase the goods? If every person has to have increased income, the cost of all goods should increase. My salary increases and at the same time the cost of all inputs, cost of all goods consumed etc increases. At the end of the day if you remove the inflation, all are at square one. Nobody is better off. All the economists are real fools. They talk about things which they do not know, but pretend to know. USA is having the maximum number of economists who are Nobel Prize winners, but Americans have not found a solution to their economic problems. China which is the Factory of the World will also face the same problem. There are so many Airports where only a handful flights take off, so many shopping malls without any shoppers, so many apartments without any residents and so on. Economists equate growth with consumption. If you consume more you grow. If you have a three bed roomed flat, buy furniture and fill up all the rooms, whether you require or not. But nobody thinks, whether we as human beings create a tree or a litre of crudeoil. By this so called GROWTH we are destroying the irreplaceable natural resources, whether it is water, forests, crude oil, coal, or land. We should consume what is necessary for our survival and we should aim at sustainable growth. Otherwise the growth is only an ILLUSION.

                  • Avatar

                    vijayraghav rao  S S Subramanian 

                    Whilst I agree with the essence of your comment, the growth and its impacts are not entirely illusional. Some do gain . And many loose( primarily because population is increasing ) The inequities increase . Earth gets exploited further . There is also increase in stress and struggle due to inflation .
                    We are too preoccupied with supply side economics as espoused by west and totally ignoring the demand side . The world population is now nearing 8 billion. There can be only more chaos ahead ( unless we export billions of humans to moon or other planets ) . With the level of human avarice , arrogance coupled with narrow-mindedness and mediocrity - there can be no other alternative.

                    • Avatar

                      vadakkus  S S Subramanian 

                      Well said sir. My thoughts exactly. But who is listening? Nobody.

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                      Malladi 

                      Trying to target the Rupee is addressing the symptom ignoring the disease. Jaggi, you are being either naive or too liberal - I think the latter - to describe Chidu . If Chidu is an economist, I am an Astronaut. Chidu is just a political animal, trying to secure his place in the unfolding power play should UPA come to power. Sonia is the worst thing to have happened to India, since the Emergency. People of India are yet to realise the enormity of the problem that UPA is. Hope they would realise in 2014. Every financial thinker worth his salt must have realised by now that depending upon the FIIs to shore up our forex reserves was the biggest folly. Therefore, the soon-to-be BJP government must focus its energy on FDI including attracting wealthy NRIs back (like Arcelor Mittal) to India to stabilise its forex reserves. For that we have to end the policy paralysis, initiate labour reforms and land reforms, getting away from subsidy mania, etc. Even the current UPA government could do it. But it has a credibility crisis now and all the decisions that it is taking are with an eye on the elections . The earlier we get rid of this government, the better for the economy. Like he was honest to declare it in 1997 when he failed to lift the economy despite his attempts, Chidu should declare now also "if the people have do not have faith in the govt to lift the economy, they should call for elections". Hope he does that before 2014.

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                        Om Prakash Sharma 

                        Perfect description

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                          Iqbal Singh 

                          Well articulated. .

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                            chetan_1 

                            Adam Smith the father of economics is with the youngsters, as todays
                            youngsters PERHAPS no longer look to the state for handouts. He says in
                            economics Man Proposes and God Disposes. If every body in a nation
                            become do-gooders -- God disposes -- and we will have hell on earth. if
                            man proposes to be selfish -- God again disposes -- and we will have
                            prosperity and peace. The elder do-gooders , Gandhi, Jayaprakash Narayan
                            etc forgot that a strong socialist state is required to do good. And it
                            will demand its pound of flesh closest to the heart. Any socialist
                            state will NOT destroy the reason for its existence which is shortages. 24 hour water
                            supply will reduce water required to be released by 30%. No Government
                            Engineer in India will accept this. Scarcity, distress is required for
                            the reason for its existence. If no scarcity exists it will manufacture
                            it. Mysore had water scarcity even though it had KRS dam beside it. It
                            is a question of power.

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                              Pink Panther 

                              Extremely clever article Sir!

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                                Ittiam 

                                What was the government doing last four years... If CAD and deficit would have been under control, this election year UPA would have had the luxury to loosen purse strings for electoral gains.... Sonia really got arrogant with the second term of power

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                                  ramesh 

                                  fantastic article jaggi, as usual. you have only revealed the bare truth of the performance of this govt.

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                                    ala 

                                    Chidambaram thinks too much of himself, too intelligent even for his own colleagues

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                                      pandurang kamath 

                                      we should make Mr Jagannathan as Finance Minister or RBI Governer who seems to know all solutions to curb Rupee value and improve financial condition of India.

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                                        RAMESH  pandurang kamath 

                                        I agree. Our Jaggu has so much wisdom that was handed out to him by his grandma and which he distributes freely to all through FP.

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                                          jgv  pandurang kamath 

                                          I think so he will turn out a far better bet. Acceptance of the problem is the first condition. Atleast he calls spade a spade. We dont want superb intellectuals to be finance ministers. If you think you can control and steer forward the economy - you are mistaken. It that would be true, than why would developed world with so may noble prize winners (paul krugmen) languish with negative and low growth even after 5 years (since 2007). The fact is government should provide enabling policies with least government interference. It should be responsible for providing best of the law and order situation and basic amenities like water, sanitation, health care, etc. Rest all should be left to market forces. If you pretend that you can control and put the economy on track, you are mistaken. Let the market dynamics work. If the rupee is going down because we import more and export less, let it fall to make imports costlier and exports competitive. Please do not manage. Eventually if rupee is having lower value it is bound to go low - please do not interfere - you are inflicting long term pain by medlling.
                                          And yes one last word - the ghost of loose economic policies with excessive money printing after 2008 has come to haunt UPA. They are now paying for their misdeeds. They killed the savers and middle class. The crony capitalism of theirs benefited themselves and business man and their political largesse in form of various policies is appeasement for poor who vote (aka corruption). Now I am happy that they are forced to pay the price of their policies even before their term comes to end.

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                                          guest 

                                          Did anyone expect an ethical performance from Chidambaram - a person who "won" the election by paying off his rival - it is puzzling how long the Chennai High Court is "considering" the case - it is time someone told the court the time is up for next elections!!! - and due to their in-activeness this person has wrecked the economy of the nation - the rich will no doubt survive - it will be the poor and middle class who have to face the brunt of the half baked decisions - and no dole is going to solve the problem - after dishing out all the money - where will they find for the next round - how long is this program going to last?

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                                            ramesh indian  guest 

                                            Absolutely. How can the Chennai High Court sit on the case for years and years ??##@!! Blistering blue barnacles.
                                            India is a banana republic,
                                            When Jayalalitha raised the issue PC's wonderful response was, "Why is the issue being raised after so many years!!" Ha ha. Harvard my ass.

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                                            ravi.krish2 

                                            India's misfortune to have a Finance Minister like Chidambaram, the haughty guy.

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                                              economics 

                                              And in spite of doing all this, Congress is not going to win the elections. They should understand what people want, if they want to win the elections. They are not making that effort and relying on age-old populist methods.
                                              Good article RJ.

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                                                vijayraghav rao  economics 

                                                I disagree . Congress / UPA could still win the elections or have a significant role in next government . I hate to say this - but populism , rigging , manipulation ( inception of confusion in the minds of masses thru mainstream media ) still works in india . Congress still won in Himachal, Uttaranchal and Karnataka . Justice Katju was right in one aspect . 90% of Indians are indeed clueless . 2014 elections could prove me wrong. Let us see.

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                                                Kashyap 

                                                I find it offensive that Mr. Chidambaram is compared to a Shikhandi in the title and the article. Sad that even senior journalists like Mr. Jagannathan are stooping low to come up with controversial titles to gather eye balls.
                                                Wonder if there are any classy Indian journos left..

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                                                  dumb  Kashyap 

                                                  Yes. Atleast shikandi did not hide his motives and was honest. it is offensive to compare them both

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                                                    Malladi  Kashyap 

                                                    Jaggi explained in what context he is using the word 'sikhandi'. Please read the article carefully, Sir.

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                                                      RAMESH  Kashyap 

                                                      Classy and that too in FP? Most of these FP reporters are on deputation from RSS mouthpiece Organiser, Pioneer etc. They always have personal hate figures and for Jaggu it is Chidambaram. .

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                                                        irregularexpression  Kashyap 

                                                        Did you actually read the article? Did you comprehend it? What was so offensive? If you cannot articulate that, it just shows your own poor comprehension skills and hypersensitive nature. If you are a 'right winger', you give a bad name to other right-wingers!

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                                                          Kashyap  irregularexpression 

                                                          Okay, if you'd indulge me for a minute here...
                                                          Let us say that a politician calls another politician "shikandhi" - a whole lot of controversy would erupt and there'd a tamasha happening (which the media would happily be flogging) all over...
                                                          In fact, it's not exactly the same word, but when Sitaram Kesri called Gowda a "nikkama", there was a ruckus.
                                                          Now, if a politician calls an editor "shikandi", then you'd have all the media lecturing us on decorum and what not...
                                                          In that sense, why is it that the media can get away with it?
                                                          Well, you can keep pointing to the analogy and how apt it may be, but shikhandi (at least in our parts of India) is primarily related to be ing irregularly constructed - if you get the drift. So, that's my case for it being offensive.
                                                          A simple test, the commenters here can honestly ask themselves if they'd be offended when they're called a "shikhandi".
                                                          There you have the answer...

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                                                            irregularexpression  Kashyap 

                                                            In that case you are clearly taking the analogy out of context. The analogy here is that of a human shield that the opponent may have reservations about attacking. It does not have anything even remotely to do with physical construction.

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                                                          Jaggi The Great  Kashyap 

                                                          Seems you didn't understand the analogy. Its not your fault. It depends on ones IQ.

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                                                            Kashyap  Jaggi The Great 

                                                            Most likely you're trolling but I will reply anyway... It's not that I am not familiar with the Bhishma / Shikhandi story or their backstory from the Mahabharata.
                                                            My point is there are better ways of making the same point that Mr. Jagannathan wanted to make without having to resort to a below-the-belt type example.

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                                                              Bobby  Kashyap 

                                                              Is Shikhandi a bad word or abusing? Do you want specially able people to protest in front of your house.

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                                                                Kashyap  Bobby 

                                                                Okay, let us hypothetically say that some one calls you Shikhandi (when there is an apt analogy to describe the work you're doing on a project). Would you nod your head in agreement or get angry?
                                                                That's my simple point - not getting into the ideology or otherwise of left-wing/right-wing.

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                                                                  VinodK  Bobby 

                                                                  Bobby please also add that Shikhandhi was not a traitor, Gadaar and definitely not a slave like Chidu of Sonia

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                                                                    Kashyap  VinodK 

                                                                    Well, your comment too misses the point. In your opinion, Chidambaram may not be most upstanding politician around, but that does not mean that this article writer's analogy is acceptable.

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                                                            Guest 

                                                            The fall in the rupee is also hurting some corporates who have borrowed large sums abroad and not taken the trouble to hedge their currency exposure. Unka bhi khayal rakhna padta hai.

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                                                              athreya 

                                                              When corrupt and inept rule the country , it goes to dogs , 2G , PNotes, CWG, CoalG, RailG, VadraG and countless other scams.Rupee Devaluation, Inflation, Black Money etc.

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                                                                D4Devendra 

                                                                Comparing Chidambaram with Shikhandi is, in fact, an insult to Shikhandi.

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                                                                Raj 

                                                                Jaggu will be the next Finance Minister of the Union under Sri Modi!

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                                                                Rrrr...naam to suna hoga 

                                                                In short, Sonia is the real VILLAIN. If IMPORTED QUEEN Sonia along with Gandhi family's looted wealth is brought to books and investigation is done in all their assets and deeds and their involvement with foreign institutions and governments, Congi-beehive and its members from Chidu to diggy all will automatically get destroyed.
                                                              http://www.firstpost.com/economy/chidambaram-plays-sonias-shikhandi-but-it-wont-save-the-rupee-1029363.html

                                                              Modi's letter to PM on insecurity in SoniaG Food Security Bill

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                                                              Narendra Modi's letter to PM on Food Security Bill: full text

                                                              Modi posts letter to PM raising doubt over Food Security bill
                                                              New Delhi, Aug 13 (TruthDive): As an all-party meet on Food Security Bill is scheduled for today, Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) apparent prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has written a letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh asking to call a chief ministers’ conference before passing the bill.
                                                              Even after BJP president Rajnath Singh gave a green signal supporting the bill on Sunday, the letter communication from the Gujarat chief Minister has raised doubts among political parties whether the BJP will support the bill.
                                                              Modi in his letter to the Prime Minister is believed to have quoted saying that the bill does not seem to contain the basic requirement which any food security legislation should meet and is doubtful to achieve the goal for which the Union government has taken this step. Claiming that the issue concerns both the Centre and state governments, the Gujarat Chief Minister said that poor families have been made ‘food insecure’ through the ordinance which does not fulfil the basic need of food security.
                                                              Referring towards the insufficiency in the ordinance, Modi said “without specifying eligibility criteria and fixing individual entitlements, number of beneficiaries has been fixed which might lead to regional disparity among different states.”
                                                              The ordinance which proposes to reduce the entitlement of below poverty line (BPL) families from 35 kg per family to only 25 kg per average family of five persons cannot be the objective of any food security legislation which reduces the privilege of those who have been identified as being below the poverty line, said the BJP poll panel chief.
                                                              Meanwhile, taking a dig at Narendra Modi, Congress general secretary Digvijaya Singh said that Modi instead of writing a letter to the Prime Minister could have raised the issue in his party meeting. Singh in microblogging site Twitter quoting, “Modi seems to have no trust on the BJP Parliamentary Party to raise right issues on Food Security Bill, and therefore writes directly to PM.”
                                                              Voicing their differences on the issue, Tamil Nadu chief Minister J Jayalalithaa and Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh had already made clear about their dissatisfaction over the alleged Food Security Bill.


                                                              Illegal beach sand mining in TN. The richest monazite reserves of AP taken out of DAE/IREL purview. SoniaG UPA, protect nation's thorium reserves.

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                                                              See: http://bharatkalyan97.blogspot.in/2013/08/thorium-beach-sands-illegal-mining.html Thorium beach sands: illegal mining along India's coastline. SoniaG UPA, stop the loot of nation's wealth
                                                              Now, illegal beach sand mining in TN

                                                              shivani chaturvedi
                                                              chaturvedishivni@gmail.com
                                                              Chennai, 13 August

                                                              Years of illegal sand mining on beaches in Tamil Nadu’s Tuticorin, Tirunelvelli and Kanyakumari districts is affecting ecology, marine life and the entire coastal community.

                                                              Besides, the large scale illicit mining of rare precious minerals in these three coastal districts have caused a loss of Rs 96,120 crore to the government, reveals a letter written by the first District Collector of un-bifurcated Tirunelveli, Mr V Sundaram, to the Chief Secretary of Tamil Nadu in January 2013.

                                                              The letter accuses that a gigantic loot of rare precious minerals has been done by M/s VV Minerals and their sister concerns owned by Mr Vaikundarajan. Mr Sundaram said as per his estimates, the loot is worth Rs. 96,120 crore.

                                                              Despite writing letters and complaining about the loot, the Tamil Nadu government has not take any action, he further said.

                                                              The letter also accuses the state’s departments of favouring VV Minerals, saying the mining lease was given to them within 72 days, while the other companies are still waiting for permission.

                                                              Mr Sundaram, a retired bureaucrat, said an RTI response shows that VV Minerals enjoyed 100 per cent monopoly in ilmenite mining and also had a giant share for exploiting garnet ~ both export favourites.
                                                              A sand mafia is operating in the three coastal districts of Tamil Nadu with impunity right under the nose of the Tamil Nadu government. Mr Vaikundarajan is allegedly “running the show” for about two decades now, but the authorities concerned have failed to check the menace.

                                                              According to sources, Mr Vaikundarajan’s political clout is protecting him from the law.
                                                              He is a businessman with political connections in high places. He has even been getting awards for export of banned items, add sources.

                                                              It is only of late that the government banned mining operations in Tuticorin district.
                                                              Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa constituted special teams recently in the wake of violations in beach mining after former Tuticorin Collector Ashish Kumar launched a crackdown on illegal activities on 6 August.

                                                              However, Tuticorin collector was controversially transferred just a day after the crackdown.
                                                              The government had ordered suspension of sand mining from 9 August to ensure smooth conduct of inspection.

                                                              Special teams led by Revenue Secretary Gagandeep Singh Bedi yesterday began inspection of mining lease areas along the coastline.

                                                              http://www.thestatesman.net/news/10233-now-illegal-beach-sand-mining-in-tn.html

                                                              Green tribunal bans beach sand mining in TN, Kerala. SoniaG UPA, ban such mining in AP too. Protect nation's thorium reserves.

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                                                              Data from the Atomic Mineral Directorate for Exploration and Research has shown that India’s monazite reserve was estimated at 11.93-million tonnes. The province of Andhra Pradesh accounted for the largest reserves estimated at 3.74-million tonnes  followed by Tamil Nadu with 2.46-million tonnes, Orissa with 2.41-million tonnes  Kerala with 1.90-million tonnes, West Bengal with 1.22-million tonnes and Jharkhand with 0.22-million tonnes. http://zeenews.india.com/news/eco-news/india-s-monazite-reserves-have-gone-up_869100.html Minister of State for Personnel, Public Grievances and Pensions and Prime Minister's Office V. Narayansamy gave this information in reply to a written question in the Rajya Sabha. August 14, 2013

                                                              See:
                                                              http://bharatkalyan97.blogspot.in/2013/08/illegal-beach-sand-mining-in-tn-richest.html Illegal beach sand mining in TN. The richest monazit resource of AP taken out of DAE/IREL purview. SoniaG UPA, protect nation's thorium reserves.

                                                              http://bharatkalyan97.blogspot.in/2013/08/thorium-beach-sands-illegal-mining.html Thorium beach sands: illegal mining along India's coastline. SoniaG UPA, stop the loot of nation's wealth


                                                              Green Tribunal bans beach sand mining in T.N., Kerala

                                                              NITIN SETHI

                                                              Chief Secretaries asked to file report

                                                              The National Green Tribunal has decided to set up an expert committee to carry out orders that it may pass in future and to prepare a comprehensive report on illegal sand mining. The committee will carry out comprehensive zoning and mapping to delineate areas where mining could be permitted and to what extent.

                                                              Hearing a case filed by the NGT Bar Association, the Tribunal on Wednesday banned beach sand mining in the coastal States without environmental clearance, citing specific instances in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The NGT Bench ordered the Chief Secretaries of the two States to file a report on the issue. In the case in Gautam Buddh Nagar, Uttar Pradesh, the Bench headed by Tribunal Chairperson Justice Swatanter Kumar noted that illegal mining continued despite earlier court orders and asked the Deputy Commissioner and the Superintendent of Police to show cause why action should not be taken against them for letting the practice to continue. The Tribunal, besides asking the States to file detailed reports in two weeks, asked members of the public to provide it more information on illegal sand mining.

                                                              For the States, the Tribunal listed specific information that they would need to furnish including details of recorded cases of illegal mining and regulations put in place since the February 2013 order of the Supreme Court on minor minerals.


                                                            • Expert panel to carry out orders of Green Tribunal
                                                            • Show-cause notice issued to Gautam Buddh Nagar Deputy Commissioner and SP

                                                            • Professions on Ancient Near East writing systems

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                                                              See: http://bharatkalyan97.blogspot.in/2013/08/monumental-architecture-as-hieroglyphs.htmlArchitecture on Ancient Near East writing systems

                                                              Cover of ivory box. Ugarit. 14th century BCE with a characteristic hieroglyph of a woman battling two jackals. Comparable hieroglyphs get repeated on Indus writing artefacts. [Update note: The hoofs or paws are unclear on the animals. If the two animals are goats rebus readings of hieroglyphs: mẽḍī 'she-goat with curling horns' (CDIAL 10120) Rebus: mẽḍ 'iron' + kola 'woman' Rebus: kol 'working in iron, alloys' + kaṇḍe 'maize-cob' Rebus: kaṇḍ 'stone']
                                                              Akkadian cylinder seal, of Ibni-sharrum, scribe, 23rd century BCE. The hieroglyphs depict workers in kanḍ,stone’, lokhãḍ ‘iron’, kol,‘metal alloys’ and damgar, ‘merchants of tin mineral’.
                                                              Akkadian cylinder seal of scribe, ‘S’u-ilis’u, Meluhha interpreter’, i.e., translator of the Meluhhan language.  The person carrying an antelope on his left hand is a Meluhha merchant. Glyph: ṭagara‘antelope’; தகர் takar, n. [T. tagaru, K. tagar.] sheep; ram. Rebus: tagara ‘tin’.  damgar, tamkāru‘merchant’.

                                                              Stone-smithy guild on a Meluhha standard

                                                               Harappa Tablet. Pict-91 (Mahadevan) m0490At m0490B Mohenjodaro Tablet showing Meluhha combined standard of three standards carried in a procession, comparable to Tablet m0491.

                                                              m0491 Tablet. Line drawing (right). This tablet showing three hieroglyphs may be called the Meluhha standard. Combined reading for the joined or ligatured glyphs is: dhatukõdā sangaḍa  ‘mineral, turner, stone-smithy guild’. Dawn of the bronze age is best exemplified by this Mohenjo-daro tablet which shows a procession of three hieroglyphs carried on the shoulders of three persons. The hieroglyphs are: 1. Scarf carried on a pole (dhatu Rebus: mineral ore); 2. A young bull carried on a stand kõdāRebus: turner; 3. Portable standard device (Top part: lathe-gimlet; Bottom part: portable furnace sã̄gāḍ Rebus: stone-cutter sangatarāśū). sanghāḍo (Gujarati) cutting stone,

                                                              gilding (Gujarati); sangsāru karau = to stone (Sindhi) sanghāḍiyo, a worker on a lathe (Gujarati)

                                                              The procession is a celebration of the graduation of a stone-cutter as a metal-turner in a smithy/forge. A sangatarāśū ‘stone-cutter’ or lapidary of neolithic/chalolithic age had graduated into a metal turner’s workshop (ko), working with metallic minerals (dhatu) of the bronze age.

                                                              Three professions are described by the three hieroglyphs: scarf, young bull, standard device dhatu kõdā sã̄gāḍī Rebus words denote: ‘ mineral worker; metals turner-joiner (forge); worker on a lathe’ – associates (guild). 

                                                              Elamite statue in gold. Department des Antiquites Orienteles, Musee du Louvre, Paris. J. de Morgan excavations, 1904 Sb 2758Jca. 1500-1200 BCE Tell of the Acropolis, Susa.(Another statue in silver shows a person carrying a goat). The person is shown carrying a bull on his left hand, comparable to the antelope carried by the Meluhhan merchant on Shu-ilishu cylinder seal. This hieroglyph is a phonetic determinant. : ḍangar‘bull (Meluhha) Rebus: ḍhangar‘blacksmith’ (Meluhha). Another possible rebus reading: damgar ‘merchant’.

                                                              Categories of professions attested in Indus Writing Corpora

                                                              The inscriptions are categorized as follows, indicating the diversification of professions which were necessitated by the revolutionary trade opportunities and interactions among communities and artisan-trader guilds who created by the Bronze Age, attested by Meluhha settlements in Elam, the Persian Gulf, Sumer and Mesopotamia of Ancient Near East:
                                                              Section 1: Stone-work, masonry
                                                              Section 2: Stone-work, masonry and metal-work
                                                              Section 3: Array of instruments: mã̄ḍ; metal tools, ingots: khāṇḍā ḍhāako
                                                              Section 4: Engraver, carver
                                                              Section 5: Ivory turner, mason, tempered sharp tools, metalware, blacksmith working in alloys, ingots, workshop
                                                              Section 6: Bricklayer, mason, blacksmith, maker of metal tools, pots and pans – workshop
                                                              Section 7:  Copper, iron merchant, alloy stone ore – eraka ibbo kol
                                                              Section 8: Stone-worker business, bronze-smith, iron-smith, working in minerals and alloy metals, metal tools, pots and pans, tin merchant, scribe
                                                              Section 9: Copper-smith, artificer, worker in alloy metals
                                                              Section 10: Scribe of workshop, warehouse, furnace of tin smithy, forge
                                                              Section 11: Shapes of Bronze Age weapons and tools made in Ancient Near East as tokens for accounting stoneware, metalware
                                                              Section 12: Artisans’ guilds pātra, ‘trough’; pattar, ‘merchant, guild’
                                                              Section 13: Tin merchant, blacksmith, lathe-turner
                                                              Section 14: Artificers working with stones, minerals, alloys, metals
                                                              Section 15: Bronze Age Smithy (Shahdad standard)

                                                              These sections present some examples of the professions associated with the Meluhhan trade – culled from the Indus Writing Corpora of nearly 7000 inscriptions which constitute  celebration of the Bronze Age competence of artificers – lapidaries, masons and smiths.


                                                              Professions on Ancient Near East writing systems

                                                              PC white veshti has messed up India's financial system. SoniaG, MMS should note: FM should go. Scrap P-notes.

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                                                              Rupee torture: Between a red queen, yuvraj and white veshti

                                                              by  Aug 16, 2013

                                                              A day after the Independence Day, the Queen’s durbar was in session.
                                                              To her left sat mauni baba with his head down and his eyes looking at his feet.
                                                              To her write sat the yuvraaj, the man who refused to grow up, fiddling with his new Apple iPhone.
                                                              Standing in front of her was the man who always wore the white veshti.
                                                              “So why is your veshti not spotlessly white today,” asked the Queen as she started the proceedings for the day.
                                                              “Oh, yesterday the wife decided to host an Independence day lunch and asked me to get two kgs of onions,” replied the man who always wore the white veshti, rather matter of factly.
                                                              “So?” asked the queen.
                                                              Flickr/ Creative Commons
                                                              Flickr/ Creative Commons
                                                              “Well, after buying two kgs of onion, I did not have enough money left to buy a Surf Excel sachet. You know, to wash one veshti properly takes one sachet.”
                                                              “Oh. I don’t know what this Power Man is upto. He doesn’t seem to understand that many elections have been lost on the price of onions,” lamented the queen.
                                                              “Yes madam,” replied the man who always wore the white veshti. “But he will win only if the onion prices keep going up.”
                                                              “Anyway so tell me what are we going about the rupee?” asked the Queen. “I gather this morning it even touched 62 to a dollar.”
                                                              “Rupee, rupee, rupee,” the yuvraaj said before the man who always wore the white veshti could say anything. “Robert keeps talking about them all the time.”
                                                              “Shh! Shutup,” said the queen. “Ah. I so wish that my son had married and my daughter had not.”
                                                              “Madam we are doing a lot of things to stop the fall of the rupee.”
                                                              “Like what?”
                                                              “On Wednesday I got the Reserve Bank to put in capital controls.”
                                                              “Yeah. Like Indian citizens can no longer buy property abroad.”
                                                              “That’s good. Anyway there is so much land in the country, why do they need to buy property abroad,” replied the queen. “They can always buy land in Gurgaon.”
                                                              “Like Robert, like Robert,” the yuvraaj interrupted again.
                                                              The man who always wore the white veshti ignored the interruption and carried on with his explanations.
                                                              “We also slashed the amount of money Indian citizens can remit abroad every year to $75,000, from the earlier $200,000. We have raised the import duty on gold and silver to 10%. We have also made it more difficult for Indian companies to invest abroad. All this to make sure that the demand for dollars goes down and the rupee recovers.”
                                                              “But it doesn’t seem to be helping,” said the queen. “Does it?”
                                                              “You know Ma, what this reminds me of?” the yuvraaj got into the conversation again.
                                                              “What beta?” asked the Queen lovingly.
                                                              “I recently read this lovely book called Through the Looking Glass, written by Lewis Carrol.”
                                                              “Good beta. You should read more instead of fidgeting around with that phone of yours all day long.”
                                                              “And the book had a Queen.”
                                                              “Really? Like me?”
                                                              “Yes, the Red Queen. And there is something that she says in the book that makes immense sense.”
                                                              “And what is that beta?”
                                                              “As the lines from the book go: “”A slow sort of country!” said the (Red) Queen. “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!””
                                                              “Ah, smart boy. Now I really know what is happening. We are not running fast enough. Also let the records of the meeting show that I said that. It’s such a smart thing to say.”
                                                              “Yes Madam. That’s what I have been trying to tell Subbu of the Reserve Bank,” said the man who always wore the white veshti, trying to save himself and pass on the blame.
                                                              “Call Subbu here at once,” roared the Queen.
                                                              “Yes Madam, in fact he is waiting outside,” said the man who always wore the white veshti.
                                                              So within five minutes Subbu was brought in. He looked very happy with not a care in the world.
                                                              “So Mr Subbu will you care to explain why are we not running fast enough when it comes to preventing the rupee fall,” asked the Queen.
                                                              “Madam, to be honest, there is nothing much we can do. The solution to the crisis is very simple. We need to cut down on our oil imports, our coal imports, our edible oil imports and our fertilizer imports. And I guess you know what will happen if we do that? At the same time we need to increase our exports manifold. And that won’t happen unless the physical infrastructure is improved. We need better ports, better roads and a better rail network. All this is not going to happen overnight, given that it has not happened in years. Also, Indian companies have borrowed too much money in dollars and all that needs to be repaid now. The NRIs are also looking to withdraw all the money they had deposited with Indian banks,” came a long answer from Subbu till he was stopped by the yuvraaj.
                                                              “In short we are screwed,” exclaimed the yuvraaj.
                                                              “So the demand for dollars will continue. The rupee will continue to be under pressure. We cannot sell dollars to control the rupee fall because we have just enough dollars to cover around six and a half months of imports. And that is a very low level. So we can only run to keep in the same place. In fact, we may not be able to do even that,” said Subbu, very matter of factly.
                                                              “Oh. But you could still do something about it?” asked the Queen.
                                                              “Madam, my time is up. I am going back to Telangana. I have bought a nice house in Nizamabad. And will spend the next few years watching the mythological movies of the late NT Rama Rao garu. It’s up to the Professor now,” said Subbu as he left the room.
                                                              “And why is the stock market down by more than 500 points this morning?” asked the ‘worried’ Queen again.
                                                              “Basically the foreign investors have now started to fear that we may not allow them to take their money back.”
                                                              “Oh, but why? I know of no such plans.”
                                                              “Madam, we have reduced the amount of money that Indians could remit abroad to $75,000 from $200,000. So the belief in the market is that our next step will be not allowing foreign investors to take their money back.”
                                                              “So?”
                                                              “So they are selling out of the stock market, converting their rupees into dollars and taking their money back, before we do any such thing. A similar things seems to be happening in the bond market.”
                                                              “Ah. All seems to be going wrong for me,” lamented the Queen. “I had such great plans for the yuvraaj.”
                                                              Que Sera, Sera (Whatever Will Be, Will Be),” played on yuvraaj’s iPhone as the Queen decided to call it a day.
                                                              And finally the mauni baba woke up and said something.
                                                              “When we don’t know where we are going the journey is the reward.”
                                                              Vivek Kaul is a writer. He tweets @kaul_vivek
                                                              http://www.firstpost.com/economy/torture-of-the-rupee-between-a-red-queen-yuvraj-and-white-veshti-1037735.html

                                                              RBI measures fail miserably: Rupee hits record low, Sensex crashes

                                                              by  54 mins ago
                                                              The Indian rupee today hit a record low of 61.92 against the US dollar against a previous all-time low of 61.80 despite measures from the central bank to prop up the currency.
                                                              Even the  BSE Sensex snapped a four-day winning streak and has plunged over 400 points in mid-morning trade to trade below its crucial psychological support level of 19000.
                                                              At 10:35 am, Sensex was down 408 points at 18959 and Nifty was down 139 points at 5600.
                                                              This is a clear indication that the desperate measures being taken by the government and the RBI have failed to calm both currency and stock markets.
                                                              Reuters
                                                              Reuters
                                                              India imposed restrictions on foreign exchange outflows and gold imports on Wednesday in a new attempt to defend the rupee, as a spike in inflation added pressure on policymakers to curb a crippling external deficit.
                                                              The depreciating rupee and efforts to control it is now beginning to touch the Indian upper middle class and all of corporate India. Companies until now could spend up to 400 percent of their networth abroad to acquire or expand.The RBI has brought this limit down to 100 percent of net worth. Indians could spend up to 2 lakh dollars a year to finance their children’s education or for any indulgence or even investment. Now they can spend 75,000 dollars a year and they can’t remit dollars to buy land abroad.
                                                              However, the RBI’s measures to support the falling rupee are proving to be counter-productive as it has created more panic on Dalal Street. The central bank might induce the very movement of money out of India that it is supposed to prevent as the capital control measures gives the impression that we are back to pre-1991 set of policies.
                                                              Even India Inc is irked by the fact that capital control measures were being introduced at a time when India is in dire needs of funding and investment.
                                                              “Ironic that we have controls on capital on Independence Day. Feels like the 1980′s. Well the silver lining is that I feel young again!” tweeted Anand Mahindra of Mahindra and Mahindra today.
                                                              Morgan Stanley believes the RBI’s capital control measures will make a marginal difference to the balance of payments  trend in the near term.
                                                              “We expect India to remain exposed to funding risks in the next few months as long as India’s current  account deficit remains higher than a more sustainable level of 2.5% of GDP and CPI inflation remains higher than 7%. As long as US Treasury yields keep rising, India will continue to see currency depreciation pressures,” the investment bank said in a report today.
                                                              “Even assuming more-than-expected inflows in long term flows in (FDI+ Loans + NRI deposits); there is excessive reliance  on “hot money“ flows to the extent of $21.3 billion,” said Elara Capital in a note titled “India Confronts the Impossible Trinity.”
                                                              The brokerage believes structural reforms like  shifting various FDIs from approval to automatic route framework  would be a ‘game changer ‘as these would not have to pass through the corridors of power in New Delhi or provincial assemblies.
                                                              Experts, however, believe that apart from policy measures, India needs some serious structural reform measures from the government.
                                                              And even though  though the intent behind capital controls on resident Indians is to stem dollar outflows at a time when the green back is in short supply, RBI has in effect  put brakes on overseas ventures and mergers and acquisitions of Indian businesses.
                                                              “It’s fire-fighting to save the rupee, but where does it leave my investments if the Indian government suddenly introduces new controls in the future that restrict me from repatriating my profits,” said Boston-based medical equipment manufacturer Harvey Kirpatrick told Firstpost earlier.
                                                              As Firstpost said earlier, ” RBI measures may curb short-term outflows, but they send a chilling message of serious crisis. The limited freedom that Indians—ordinary citizens and businesses—enjoyed on capital account convertibility is now being rolled back bit by bit. They can’t buy gold without paying more for it; they can’t buy property; and they can’t invest abroad easily to expand business opportunities. India Inc will not be happy.”
                                                              “It would be deeply unfortunate if a weak economy was driven to a crisis purely by the efforts of policy makers seeking to prevent it. The RBI should publicly give up its doomed defence of the rupee. After all, Finance Minister P Chidambaram is right when he told Parliament that the rupee’s level is fixed by various uncontrollable factors. But then he, and the Reserve Bank, should then stop trying to control it. No policy maker knows what the correct level of the rupee is; the market should be allowed to decide,” the BS article said. ( Read the entire piece here.)
                                                              The big question now is will foreign investors stop investing because they may worry about whether more capital controls will be introduced to limit outflows?

                                                              http://www.firstpost.com/investing/rbi-measures-fail-miserably-rupee-hits-record-low-sensex-crashes-1037573.html

                                                              Capital control: As RBI shuts door, more investors may flee India

                                                              by  Aug 16, 2013
                                                              New York: Foreign investors seem to be increasingly wary about investing in India as the Reserve Bank of India battles to stem the rupee’s plunge and stop capital outflows that are pushing India toward its biggest crisis in more than two decades.
                                                              On Wednesday, RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao tightened rules on overseas investments to prop up the rupee. He cut the amount Indian companies can invest overseas without seeking approval to 100 percent of their net worth, from 400 percent. The move is expected to scuttle plans the Aditya Birla Group, Apollo Tyres and Cipla had to invest abroad. Indians can only remit $75,000 a year versus the previous $200,000 limit.
                                                              “It’s fire-fighting to save the rupee, but where does it leave my investments if the Indian government suddenly introduces new controls in the future that restrict me from repatriating my profits,” said Boston-based medical equipment manufacturer Harvey Kirpatrick.
                                                              “It really gives me pause. It’s worrying because the move reverses the relatively long-term trend of easing capital controls.”
                                                              For the first time since mid-2007, the advanced economies of Japan, the US and Europe are contributing more to growth in the $74 trillion global economy than the BRIC economies of China, India, Brazil, and Russia, according to Bridgewater Associates, which manages $120 billion in global investments.
                                                              “With the US economy on the rebound and flat growth in emerging markets, Western firms expect better returns back home,” Amrish Shah, who advises clients on mergers and acquisitions at Ernst & Young, told The Wall Street Journal.
                                                              India’s economic mismanagement and lack of growth have driven Western firms to sell their Indian investments. The falling rupee, which has remained weak despite a raft of measures by the RBI, has further eroded the profitability of many investments foreign firms have in India, expediting the departures.
                                                              “Investors fear that the rupee will continue to weaken, pulling unprofitable investments further into the red and leading to higher mark-to-market losses,” noted the Journal.
                                                              India’s gaping current account deficit has put a grinding pressure on the rupee which hit a record low of 61.80 against the dollar last week. It has fallen 31 percent in the past five years and 12 percent in the last six months against the dollar.
                                                              US insurer Berkshire Hathaway has decided to close its business selling online insurance in India two years after it was launched. Aviva PLC and New York Life Insurance Co. are also among insurers that are selling or have sold their India franchises. Royal Bank of Scotland also said on Friday that it would sell some of its Indian assets to a local bank.
                                                              Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett.
                                                              Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett.
                                                              In July, foreign investors like US retail giant Wal-Mart, and steel companies Posco and Arcelor Mittal all pulled back on Indian investment plans. ArcelorMittal dropped its plans to build a steel plant, worth $8.4 billion, in Odisha, over extended delays and problems in acquiring land. ArcelorMittal’s decision is one of the biggest foreign investor exits from India and the company was upfront about why it decided to leave.
                                                              “ArcelorMittal has not been able to acquire the requisite land for the steel plant, nor has it been able to ensure captive iron ore security, which is a necessary requirement for the project. Therefore, taking into account the current economic climate, ArcelorMittal has concluded it will no longer be pursuing its plans for a steel plant in Keonjhar,” said the company.
                                                              Unfortunately, the Indian government has failed to create a simple and clear policy foundation that would have sorted issues like mines allotment and land acquisition.
                                                              Uncertainty leading up to India’s elections, set for next year are also adding to concerns.
                                                              “There is just the huge confusion on what next. Any investor into India will be wise to wait because there will be volatility in policy that is short term in design,” said Krishna K Gupta, chairman of Massachusetts-headquartered global strategic advisory firm Romulus Advisory.
                                                              Foreign investors have soured on India at a time when Finance Minister P Chidambaram had been hoping to revive the economy’s mojo by attracting some $20 billion in new investment to fund the persistent current account deficit without depleting India’s $300 billion in foreign exchange reserves.

                                                              http://www.firstpost.com/economy/capital-control-as-rbi-shuts-door-more-investors-may-flee-india-1037231.html

                                                              It’s 1991 again as RBI clamps capital controls, bans property buy abroad

                                                              by  Aug 16, 2013
                                                              In what can only be seen as a panic move, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday reversed the long-term secular trend of easingcapital controls by severely limiting the amount of money citizens can remit abroad, and businesses can invest in foreign ventures. Gold imports are being further squashed.
                                                              In recent months, industrialists ranging from Kumar Mangalam Birla to Cipla’s Yusuf Hamied to Apollo Tyres’ Neeraj Kanwar have been talking about investing abroad rather than in India due to a vitiated business climate here.
                                                              Reserve Bank of India logo. Reuters
                                                              Reserve Bank of India logo. Reuters
                                                              On Wednesday evening, the RBI put a spoke in their collective wheel by indicating that Indian companies can invest only amounts equal to their current net worth abroad through the automatic route – as against four times their net worth currently. If this norm had been in place 10 years ago, the Tatas would have thought thrice about buying Corus or Jaguar Land Rover, the Birlas would have found it tough to buy Novelis and Bharti Airtel may not have bought Zain. All these deals would have had to pass through tedious government clearances.
                                                              The RBI press release said that “this reduced limit would also apply to remittances made under the ODI (overseas direct investment) scheme by Indian companies for setting up unincorporated entities outside India in the energy and natural resources sectors. This reduction in limit, however, would not apply to ODI by Navratna PSUs, ONGC Videsh Ltd and Oil India in overseas unincorporated entities and incorporated entities, in the oil sector.”
                                                              In short, Indian companies that want to invest abroad—especially the smaller ones—cannot do so without bureaucratic vetting, while the public sector oil companies, already enfeebled by having to dole out subsidies, will be allowed to do what they find difficult.
                                                              In a related move, the RBI also de-liberalised the allowances for Indian residents who want to make remittances abroad. The remittance limit under the “Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS Scheme) has been slashed from US$ 200,000 to US$ 75,000 per financial year”. In recent years, many Indians have used the LRS route to invest in property and other assets abroad, but this will now be down to a trickle.
                                                              In fact, the RBI has gone one step further and simply banned the purchase of property abroad. The press release said: “While current restrictions on the use of LRS for prohibited transactions, such as margin trading and lottery would continue, use of LRS for acquisition of immovable property outside India directly or indirectly will, henceforth, not be allowed.”
                                                              These measures may curb short-term outflows, but they send a chilling message of serious crisis. The limited freedom that Indians—ordinary citizens and businesses—enjoyed on capital account convertibility is now being rolled back bit by bit. They can’t buy gold without paying more for it; they can’t buy property; and they can’t invest abroad easily to expand business opportunities. India Inc will not be happy.
                                                              To be sure, the RBI has also said that “the present set of measures is aimed at moderating outflows. However, any genuine requirement beyond these limits will continue to be considered by RBI under the approval route”. But when capital controls are being slapped back, no one will expect the RBI to be liberal with its clearances. The word “genuine” requirement will put discretionary power back in the hands of babus – something the nation has been trying to move away from.
                                                              The government has also banned the import of gold in the form of coins and medallions, and importers of gold will have to pay upfront before getting any of the yellow stuff. And at least 20 percent of gold imported will have to be re-exported, Arvind Mayaram,  economic affairs secretary, told newspersons. These steps follow the increase in gold import duties to 10 percent yesterday – up five-fold since last year.
                                                              It is not clear what impact all these measures will have on foreign sentiment and capital inflows. The big questions are:
                                                              #1: Will foreign investors now stop investing because they may worry about whether more capital controls will be introduced to limit outflows? Will money come in if it is not free to move out?
                                                              #2: Will NRIs now worry about their ability to move in and out of Indian bank deposits at will?
                                                              #3: Will more of the Indian demand for gold, already subject to high import duties, now shift to unofficial and illegal channels? The evidence is that it already has. Now smugglers will be the main beneficiaries.
                                                              #4: Will Indian business now clam up further? If they don’t want to invest in India, and can’t invest abroad, will they now just sit on their hands and wait for the crisis to blow over? Or a new government to come in?
                                                              #5: Will some exporters now begin underinvoicing exports in order to keep more of their dollars abroad, out of the clutches of the Indian state?
                                                              Make no mistake, the message coming out of North Block and Mint Street is a clear downer for India Inc. In terms of the sense of crisis, we are back to pre-1991 days.

                                                              http://www.firstpost.com/business/we-are-back-to-1991-as-rbi-clamps-capital-controls-bans-property-buy-abroad-1033877.html

                                                              Diamond prospecting in Nallamalla hills, Srisailam, Ahobilam -- Geological study

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                                                              Imaging mantle lithosphere for diamond prospecting in southeast India

                                                              1. Durbha Sai Ramesh
                                                              +Author Affiliations
                                                              1. National Geophysical Research Institute (Council of Scientific & Industrial Research), Hyderabad 500007, India
                                                              1. *E-mail: dassharma@ngri.res.in.

                                                              Abstract

                                                              An understanding of the tectonic makeup of an area through study of surface geological features, together with depth information on the nature of the underlying lithosphere, forms the key to diamond exploration strategy. Although diamonds have been reported from the Indian craton for many centuries, the search for their carrier rocks dates back only to the beginning of the twentieth century. This study focuses on a wide area in southeast India, parts of which are sources of both diamondiferous and nondiamondiferous kimberlites and lamproites. Using Ps (SV and SH) and Sp receiver functions, we recovered depth images of the lithospheric mantle beneath southeast India encompassing the Eastern Dharwar–Bastar cratons and the adjoining Eastern Ghats mobile belt. These images reveal the presence of two significant velocity anomalies of contrasting nature at different depths beneath the study region. High-velocity features are observed between 160 and 220 km depth (Lehmann discontinuity depth, or L-depth), and a complex low-velocity contrast layer is delineated at ∼80–100 km depth. Analyses of results from several other studies that include regional geology, geophysics, geochemistry, and geochronology allow us to infer that the positive velocity contrasts at L-depth represent preserved oceanic remnants of a ca. 1.6 Ga paleosubduction event in southeast India. Analysis of selected geothermobarometry data in conjunction with other evidence presented in this study indicates that the craton beneath southeast India is underlain by a thick lithospheric root/keel in excess of 200 km, suggesting an environment conducive to diamond stability. Consequently, we interpret the complex low-velocity contrast layer feature as a midlithospheric discontinuity and not a shallow lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. The diamond formation potential of the area is discussed in light of a working model that incorporates the Mesoproterozoic paleosubduction scenario (ca. 1.6 Ma event) and subsequent kimberlite and/or lamproite intrusions. Wide regions covering the Godavari graben and adjoining areas are identified as potential zones for diamond exploration.
                                                              • Received 11 December 2012.
                                                              • Revision received 11 March 2013.
                                                              • Accepted 12 March 2013.

                                                              Study finds new diamond mines

                                                              DC | Amar Tejaswi | 10 hours 19 min ago
                                                              Picture for representational purpose only.
                                                              Picture for representational purpose only.
                                                              Hyderabad: New research has hinted at the possibility of a diamond seam in the Nallamala forest region in Andhra Pradesh and the Godavari Graben, one of the largest sedimentary basins in India. Scientists involved in the research also claimed to have found a new, cost-effective and quick search tool, using earthquake data, for identifying regions where diamonds could potentially occur.

                                                              Geoscientists from city-based CSIR National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI) studied seismic data related to recent earthquakes retri-eved from seismological stations located at Hyderabad, Kadapa, Kothagudem and Dharwar. Geoscientists Dr Subrata Das Sharma and Dr Durbha Sai Ramesh published their findings in the latest issue of the journal Lithosphere.

                                                              Diamonds are generally formed inside the Earth at a depth of more than 150 km, and forge through the surface by rocks known as kimberlites and lamproites. Earlier studies had suggested that the Indian lithosphere is thin, but Dr Sharma and Dr Ramesh’s work suggests otherwise.

                                                              Areas identified for exploring diamonds
                                                              A study by geoscientists Dr Subrata Das Sharma and Dr Durbha Sai Ramesh claims that geothermal conditions are conducive for diamond stability. They have identified an area spread across two lakh square kilometres where there is a possibility of finding diamonds.

                                                              “There are several conditions required for the formation of diamonds, foremost among which are high pressure, high temperature and appropriate partial pressure of oxygen within the Earth’s mantle. Our findings suggest that these conditions are fulfilled in south-eastern India,” Dr Das Sharma said.

                                                              However, he cautioned that “we are only hinting at the possibility of a diamond field in the Nallamala forest region and the Godavari graben. New exploration strategies are essential. These are only potential areas.”

                                                              The Nallamala forest region is the largest untouched forest reserve in South India and is known to have rocks formed by large scale volcanic activity millions of years ago.


                                                              The method used by Dr Das Sharma and Dr Ramesh could also be the quickest and most cost-effective for diamond exploration. Kimberlites and lamproites are extremely difficult to locate but the techniques by the NGRI geoscientists could be path-breaking for their pace and cost-effectiveness.


                                                              http://www.deccanchronicle.com/130816/news-current-affairs/article/study-finds-new-diamond-mines

                                                              India Sparkles with Promise of Diamonds, Study Finds


                                                              Activists alarmed at possible EVM based fraud in impending elections

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                                                              New voting system to debut in Nagaland by-polls

                                                              ASHWINI PHADNIS



                                                              The Voter Verifiable Paper Trail (VVPAT) system will be used on trial basis for the first time in the Nagaland by-elections to be held on September 4.
                                                              The VVPAT system is a new initiative of the Election Commission to ensure free and fair elections.
                                                              The VVPAT unit prints a ballot slip containing the serial number and symbol of the candidate when a vote is cast using the electronic voter machine (EVM).
                                                              The ballot slip is visible to the voter for about five seconds behind a ballot slip viewing window.
                                                              After this, the ballot slip is cut and it falls into a compartment.
                                                              In case there is a dispute about the voting and a petition is filed, the votes can be tallied electronically and physically with the ballot slips that fall into the compartment.
                                                              At present, EVMs are used for voting and counting is based on the results in the machines.

                                                              PHYSICAL VERIFICATION

                                                              In comparison, the VVPAT will print a voter’s selection, thus also allowing for physically verification of the vote.
                                                              42 VVPAT – one which will be in use and another as a stand-by – will be used in the 21 election stations during the September 4 by-election. All the 12,000 registered voters in the constituency will be able to use the system.
                                                              The cost of each VVPAT, manufactured by Bharat Electronic Ltd and Electronics Corporation of India (ECIL), is estimated at about Rs 12,000.
                                                              To allow its use in the by-election, the Conduct of Elections Rules were amended and notified by the Election Commission on Friday.

                                                              SCALING UP

                                                              Election Commission sources said depending on feedback from the electorate, including whether the use of VVPAT helped increase trust in the elections and how friendly its use was, a decision would be taken on whether it should be “gradually expanded in a graded and phased manner” throughout the country.
                                                              Using VVPAT throughout the country will require a lead time for manufacturing enough machines and an expenditure, which could be in the range of Rs 2,000-3,000 crore.
                                                              (This article was published on August 16, 2013)

                                                              http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/politics/new-voting-system-to-debut-in-nagaland-bypolls/article5029531.ece

                                                              Subject: Indian EVMs, activists alarmed at possible major fraud in impending elections
                                                              To: 
                                                              ================
                                                              Press Release
                                                              Save Indian Democracy
                                                              Ph:      7329392060 (USA)
                                                              Email:  SaveIndianDemocracy.org@gmail.com

                                                              Activists alarmed at ECI buying additional 2 lakh of same manipulable EVMs and combining State (5 states) and Central Elections together creating an environment for major fraud in coming elections

                                                              Activists who has been working on EVM issue during last 4 years are alarmed with recent news item that ECI is going to buy 2 lakhs (0.2 million) of same old EVMs and hold the coming state and central elections together in Nov 2013.    (Ref: July 2013, Times of India,  http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-07-28/india/40848346_1_evms-simultaneous-polls-early-polls ).

                                                              The issue is ECI under Dr. Quraishi has done multiple field trails with VVPAT (EVM with paper receipt), did multiple design modifications with help of ECI expert committee and zero'ed on a VVPAT machine design.  ECI even demonstrated to opposition parties to their satisfaction as of May 2013.   In Apr 2013, ECI  went to Supreme Court that they are ready to order the VVPAT machines once they get funds from Central Govt (see links below). 

                                                              After new election commissioner Mr. Sampath took over, everything came to full stop.  What is the imperative for ECI to hold state and central elections together in Nov 2013 and use that as a reason to procure 2 lakhs of same old EVMs that were known to be easily manipulated?   This is alarming because this is precisely creating conditions for major EVM  frauds (see blatant statewide examples of EVM fraud from 2009 below for which ECI has no answer).   Holding elections together when ECI is hard pressed to manage, buying large quantity of extra EVMs does not bode well for fairness of coming elections, based on several experiences in multiple states in 2009 elections (see AP example in particular below).   At current times where no party can gain absolute majority all it takes is manipulate small percentage (less than 5%) in select constituencies where margins are thin to tip the balance and even capture power.

                                                              This whole idea smells like conspiracy and given the way country is going through one scam after another it is not surprising?   Seems like with the possibility of loss of power the establishment seems to take drastic step to subvert democracy.   To address this activists are pursuing various strategies such as filing PILs in Supreme Court,  protests/Dharna at the Election Commission, increase both national and international awareness of the impending fraudulent elections,  bring to notice of the activists in countries ECI is selling the same old EVMs that can be manipulated etc.  Please note that Dr. Swamy PIL on EVM is coming up for hearing in Supreme Court on Aug 22nd.
                                                              Timeline from 2013 for VVPAT below:
                                                              1) Apr 2013, ECI informed Supreme Court  that VVPAT machine design is ready and just a matter of getting funding from Central Govt

                                                              http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-07-28/india/40848346_1_evms-simultaneous-polls-early-polls
                                                              2)  May 2013, ECI demonstrated VVPAT machines to all political parties and got their agreement with timeline of how they determined right design after actual field trails and design enhancements

                                                              To understand the concerns of activists we have to go back to 2009 elections.
                                                              2009 Andhra Pradesh  EVM Fraud (state and central elections) - lagadapati precise prediction with thousands of EVMs lost and some sold as scrap
                                                              http://saveindiandemocracy.wordpress.com/2013/08/16/andhra-pradesh-2009-election-fraud/

                                                              2009 State wide fraud (Maharashtra, Tamilnadu, Assam, Manipur etc)
                                                              http://saveindiandemocracy.wordpress.com/2013/08/16/2009-state-wide-election-fraud-other-than-ap/

                                                              Court case on EVMs by Dr. Subramanian Swamy (Supreme Court hearing on Aug 22nd, 2013)

                                                              Other important links to put things in perspective:

                                                              Below are some very important links to put things in perspective,  about Hari demonstrating EVMs (see youtube video below) can be easily manipulated with Alex from USA and Rop from Netherlands in Indian media,  how stand alone EVMs are banned internationally across Europe and USA,  acceptance of research paper on manipulability of Indian EVM at prestigious ACM Computer Security Conference at Chicago 2010,  Dr. David Dill  (considered pioneer in election reforms in USA) statement on EVMs and invitation to ECI to USA etc.  
                                                              Indian EVMs are a tragic story of bureaucrats who know little of technology carrying it to extreme and foolishly defending it and an establishment that finds it attractive to manipulate and subvert democracy.   The software is written by few programmers and burnt into a chip in Japan/USA which we cannot even verify what is put in there.  And these countries do not even use EVMs.   The whole idea fails basic premise of transparency which is best put by German Supreme Court which banned them unanimously in first hearing with one question:  'How can lay voter be assured that his/her vote is counted against a candidate they voted for after converting the vote into bits and bytes?  If voter needs experts to understand it, then it is not transparent'.   ECI under Naveen Chawla lied to nation that our EVM are different and not networked.  As you can see international experts speak, the EVMs banned in all mature democracies are also not networked, they were banned for simple reason of lack of transparency, not even because of any concerns of fraud that occurred, particularly in Europe.   In a corrupt country like India with Transparency international index closee to Afghanisthan, this is the worst episode in Indian democracy.    It is a matter of shame after all the events in 2009 that our ECI is still continuing these machines.

                                                              1) Video on how to manipulate a real EVM (by Hari and top international experts Alex/Rop)?

                                                              2) Prestigious ACM computer Security conference paper on Indian EVM (Chicago, 2010)

                                                              3) Dr. David Dill (Stanford) Video message to Election Commission on what India can learn from International Experience

                                                              4) Presentation on how EVMs are banned internationally

                                                              5) Top International computer security Experts write to Election Commission

                                                              6) 'Democracy at Risk', book by GVL Narasimha Rao

                                                              7) Did NDA lost to UPA in 2004 and 2009 elections due to EVMs.

                                                              8) Conference on EVM by Dr. Swamy with international experts in Chennai in 2010

                                                              9) Dr. David Dill (Stanford) write to Election Commission

                                                              10) Omesh Saigal (retd IAS ) write on EVM use

                                                              11) Omesh Saigal (retd IAS) presentation on EVM
                                                              12) Arrest and harassment of Hari by Election Commission (Naveen Chawla)
                                                              http://saveindiandemocracy.wordpress.com/hari-harassment-by-police/
                                                              13) Journey of how it all started, on how activists took on EVM issue both in USA and India
                                                              http://saveindiandemocracy.wordpress.com/journey/
                                                              14) Hari Prasad awarded prestigious Pioneer of the year award by US Electronic Frontier Foundation
                                                              http://saveindiandemocracy.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/hari-prasad-awarded-pioneer-of-the-year-by-prestigious-electronic-frontier-foundation/

                                                              Key Websites:
                                                              1) Indian VETA website:   http://IndianEVM.com
                                                              2) USA based website:    http://SaveIndianDemocracy.org 

                                                              Regards,
                                                              Satya Dosapati

                                                              PC moves retrograde -- CII and FICCI. Time for FM to go.

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                                                              India Inc slams move to restrict forex outflows





                                                              TNN | Aug 17, 2013, 07.25AM IST
                                                              NEW DELHI: India industry reacted strongly to the latest move from the government and RBI to tame foreign exchange outflows and termed the steps as "retrograde" . The two leading industry chambers CII and Ficci used unusually strong words to criticize the steps unveiled by the authorities .


                                                              "RBI's step to contain the current account deficit by imposing a cap on outward investment acts against the Indian economy's globalization drive and detracts from the overall reforms process," said Kris Gopalakrishnan , president, CII.
                                                              He said the reduction of limit in outward investment from 400% of net worth to just 100% under the automatic route was too drastic a step. Observing that outward investment by India has progressively come down from $16.5 billion in 2010-11 to $7.1 billion in 2012-13 , CII said this would severely dent India's strategic footprint in the global marketplace. "We are deeply concerned that such a measure would also prove to be counterproductive as it would disrupt the ongoing investment plans of corporates," said Gopalakrishnan. 

                                                              He said at a time when companies of other countries are searching for opportunities in resources, markets, and manufacturing across the world, India might lose out. "The move would further vitiate investor confidence which is already low and would send a wrong signal that India is not a place for doing business. The longterm credibility of the country would suffer as overseas businesses may have doubts about policy stability," CII said in a statement. 

                                                              Ficci president Naina La Kidwai said the market fears over the fundamentals of the economy need to be addressed and hoped that the recent measures to restrict outflows are temporary and would be reversed once there is stability in the foreign exchange market. "With the rupee touching a new low of 62 for a dollar and the largest fall in two years in the equity market, a sense of despondency continues," Kidwai said. 

                                                              "The markets today experienced a free fall and has not reacted well to the central bank's restrictions on rupee flows offshore with heightened fears that more restrictions may come including FIIs. These fears need to be addressed — after all India has never restricted dividend flows offshore or sales of equity share proceeds even when the situation was more dire," she said. 

                                                              http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/India-Inc-slams-move-to-restrict-forex-outflows/pmarticleshow/21874014.cms?prtpage=1

                                                              RBI taking India back to the 80s: India Inc

                                                              A host of big Indian companies have made acquisitions abroad in last five years to grow their businesses
                                                               is not happy with capital control restrictions imposed by the Reserve Bank of India () on investments abroad, saying the Indian economy is going back to the ’80s when investments by Indian companies abroad were almost zero – thanks to the stifling.

                                                              Chief excutive officers (CEOs)  said they were aware of the situation on the current account deficit () front, prompting the RBI to impose a cap on outward investment but added the capital control moves would be a dampener to India’s global aspirations. A host of Indian companies, including the Tatas, the Birlas, the Mahindras and the Ruias of Essar made acquisitions abroad in the last five years to grow their businesses. “It is ironic that we have controls on capital on . Feels like the 1980s. Well, the silver lining is that I feel young again,” Anand Mahindra, chairman, Mahindra & Mahindra, tweeted. In fact, in June this year, Delhi-based Apollo Tyres announced it would take over US-based Cooper Tires for $2.5 bn.

                                                              The Birlas announced they would invest another $1 billion in the US in a fertiliser unit and another $1bn in Novelis in Latin America. But the CEOs fear the panicky measures announced by RBI on Wednesday to restrict how much Indians and companies can invest abroad would further scare away investors.  

                                                              “RBI’s step to contain the current account deficit by imposing a cap on outward investment acts against the Indian economy’s globalisation drive and detracts from the overall reforms process,” said Kris Gopalakrishnan, executive vice-chairman of Infosys and president of Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). “We are deeply concerned such a measure would also prove counter-productive as it would disrupt the ongoing investment plans of corporates,” Gopalakrishnan said. He added the move would further vitiate investor confidence, which is already low, and would send a wrong signal India was not a place for doing business. The long-term credibility of the country, too, would suffer, as foreign businesses might have doubts about policy stability.

                                                              According to the CII President, to stabilise the , it would be appropriate to initiate policies which prevent the influx of non-essential imports such as coal and iron ore and augment forex inflows by encouraging foreign direct investment by promising a conducive and stable policy regime and liberalising foreign institutional investment by removing short-term capital gains tax.

                                                              It is hoped the above measures would be temporary and the caps on overseas investment would be removed sooner rather than later, said Gopalakrishnan.

                                                              Naina Lal Kidwai, HSBC India head, said the markets on Friday experienced a free fall and hade not reacted well to the central bank’s restrictions on rupee flows offshore, with heightened fears that more restrictions might come, including for foreign institutional investors. “These fears need to be addressed — after all, India has never restricted dividend flows offshore or indeed sales of equity share proceeds even when the situation was more dire. The fall in the rupee essentially underlines weakness in the economic fundamentals,” Kidwai, who is also head of Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, said.

                                                              “We would want to reiterate that the current depreciation is more symptomatic in nature. We hope the recent liquidity tightening measures and rupee outflow restrictions announced by the RBI and the ministry of finance are temporary and would be reversed once we are on firm ground. At this juncture, instilling confidence among investors should be the most important task at hand,” Kidwai said.

                                                              Tibet being turned into an amusement park -- Claude Arpi

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                                                              China wants to turn Tibet into an amusement park


                                                              By Claude Arpi on August 11, 2013
                                                              China wants to turn Tibet into an amusement parkChina is a strange country. While its new leaders dream of a modern nation with a scientific outlook, some of China’s present practices take us back to the darkest days of Mao’s era. Where has the glasnost gone?
                                                              Take Yu Zhengsheng’s visit to the Tibetan Autonomous Region. But first, you may ask, who is Yu?
                                                              Yu is one of the seven bosses of the Middle Kingdom. He is the Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the member of the Standing Committee responsible for Tibetan Affairs. He paid an ‘inspection tour’ around Lhasa from August 1 to 6. The most extraordinary is not the visit itself, but the fact that nothing appeared in the Chinese (and the local Tibetan) Press before Yu was back in Beijing on August 6 evening.
                                                              Outside China, it is difficult to believe that an official responsible for a region such as Tibet can stay there for nearly one week with the world, remaining unaware of his visit until he had left.
                                                              Like Xi Jinping, when he addressed a Tibetan delegation in March in Beijing during the National People’s Congress, Yu spoke of “achieving leapfrog economic and social development in Tibet and long-term stability”.
                                                              Yu rejected the Dalai Lama’s proposal for a high degree of autonomy for all Tibetan-inhabited areas. Yu said that it “runs counter to China’s Constitution, the law, and the fundamental interests of Tibetan Buddhism”.
                                                              Yu asked the monks to “have a clear understanding of the secessionist nature of the Dalai Lama clique and resolutely safeguard national unification, ethnic unity and Tibet’s harmony and stability.”
                                                              The ‘secret’ visit was unusually long (6 days) and seems to have focused on the way “to scientifically develop ideas to strengthen infrastructure construction and cultivate industries.”
                                                              But developing Tibet for what?
                                                              Probably to flood the Tibetan plateau with more and more Han tourists!
                                                              To receive the 15 million Chinese visitors expected this year, a good infrastructure is required; airports and the railway line are the backbones of a booming tourism industry in Tibet.
                                                              Xinhua recently reported that the airport in Chamdo (known as the Bangda Airport) was to be reopened after major repairs.
                                                              Soon after, the 4,411-metre-high Kardze Daocheng Yading airport will be functional in Kardze in Sichuan province. It will become the world’s highest civilian airport (hardly imaginable in India, it will be completed a year earlier than planned!).
                                                              The airport will also facilitate the quick transportation of fresh troops from the Military Area Command in Chengdu to Kardze prefecture, one of the most restive areas on the Tibetan plateau.
                                                              The Tibetan Center for Human Rights and Democracy (TCHRD) reported a serious incident which occurred in the area on the occasion of the Dalai Lama’s birthday (July 6). At least nine Tibetans e sustained serious gunshot wounds and are believed to be in critical condition. Many others, both monastic and lay Tibetans have been injured after paramilitary forces from People’s Armed Police (PAP) lobbed teargas shells and beat them.
                                                              The new Kardze Yading airport will greatly facilitate the transportation of PAP reinforcements in case of unrest. With one stone, two birds are killed: the Tibetan protesters are ‘pacified’ and the deluge of Chinese tourists can bring hefty revenues.
                                                              The website Chinanews.com told Han mainlanders : “Tibet with its mystery is the spiritual Garden of Eden; and is longed for by travellers home and abroad. Only by stepping on the snowy plateau, can one be baptised by its splendor, culture, folklore, life, snowy mountains, saint mountains, sacred lakes, residences with local characteristics and charming landscape.”
                                                              Tibet is fast becoming the largest entertainment park in the world. A thousand times larger than Disneyland.
                                                              Today, the leadership in Beijing has found a sophisticated way to submerge (or drown) the Tibetan population under waves of Han Chinese.
                                                              The Government in Beijing markets the Land of Snows as the ultimate ‘indigenous’ spot for the Chinese people to spend their holidays.
                                                              Tibet has two unique assets: First, its physical aspect — the beauty of the landscape, the imposing mountain ranges, the purity of the air and the rivers, the dry pure sky (especially when compared to the sky of China’s great metropolis). Tibet is the ideal place to have a break from the fast pace of the polluted mainland.
                                                              The second advantage is the rich historical past of the Roof of the World, the Land of the Lamas. In Tibet, you can find everything, proclaims Chinese propaganda. A beautiful Chinese princess falling for the powerful emperor and converting him to Buddhism; the monasteries and nunneries, seat of a wisdom lost in the mainland; the folkloric yak or snow-lion dances; the Shoton (yogurt) festival; the beautiful colourful handicrafts; the exotic food, you name it.
                                                              And you get entertained!
                                                              Take the ‘Grand Princess Wencheng Opera’, an opera on the life of the Chinese wife of the Tibetan Emperor Songtsen Gompo, who lived in the 7th century CE. The opera is staged at the outskirt of Lhasa with some 600 actors on a nearly-100 metre-long stage; but more funny (or tragic), in front of a newly-built replica of the Potala Palace, a few kilometres from the real one.
                                                              The Tibetan blogger and dissident Tsering Woeser, who lives in Beijing but frequently visits Tibet, posted images of the ‘new’ Potala on her blog. She explains, “In reality this is a project to rewrite history, to ‘wipe out’ the historical memory and culture of a people. This is a ‘win win’ project.”
                                                              She says that more than $120 million had been invested in the project.
                                                              To further entertain the Chinese visitors, the administration of the Tibetan Autonomous Region is organising ‘festivals’ such as the Lhasa Shoton Festival, the Damxung Horse Racing Festival and hosts of others.
                                                              One of these festivals is dedicated to Tsangyang Gyatso, the 6th Dalai Lama, born in Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh.
                                                              The Chinese propaganda tells the tourists he is born in Tibet. The announcement says, “Tourists can enjoy beautiful Tibetan love songs performed by locals from the Tsona County in Lhoka Prefecture, hometown of Tsangyang Gyatso, the household name of the 6th Dalai Lama.”
                                                              The fact that Tsangyang Gyatso is born on the other side of the McMahon in Tawang district of Himachal Pradesh is cleverly overlooked. Chinese authorities probably extend ‘Southern Tibet’ to the plains of Assam.
                                                              With a few stones so many birds are killed.

                                                              ECI has 11 lakh EVMs. Will all these get modified with printers for 2013 Lok Sabha polls?

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                                                              See: http://bharatkalyan97.blogspot.in/2013/08/activists-alarmed-at-possible-evm-based.html 


                                                              Electronic voting machines with paper trail unlikely before next Lok Sabha elections

                                                              Bharti Jain, TNN Aug 27, 2012, 02.40AM IST
                                                              (The need for a voter-verifiable…)
                                                              NEW DELHI: With the 2014 general elections in sight, the Election Commission is scrambling to do what is proving to be a herculean task -- introducing new-age EVMs with a voter-verifiable paper audit trail. However, those questioning the tamper-proof nature of the EVMs and campaigning for a paper trail of the ballots may have to wait beyond the next Lok Sabha polls for a complete switchover to the new system.

                                                              According to sources in the EC, the huge costs involved -- given that 7 lakh of the 11 lakh existing EVMs deployed in Lok Sabha polls are incompatible with a printing unit -- coupled with the high incidence of snags associated with printers, have made the EC wary if it can manage a full-scale, new-age EVM-based general election by 2014. At most, senior officials at Nirvachan Sadan feel, the panel can introduce the new voter-verifiable paper trail system in some select states, while letting the other states vote with the old set of EVMs.
                                                              With elections 20 months away, the EC is holding trials for the new voter-verifiable paper trail-compatible EVM prototypes. The cost implications are huge. To update an existing EVM and have it attached to a printer is estimated to cost anything between Rs 8,000 to Rs 10,000. And if all the EVMs are to be updated, the total cost would work out to nearly Rs 1,000 crore. However, of the 11 lakh existing EVMs, only 4 lakh are compatible with printers. The remaining cannot even be updated.
                                                              Besides, printers being bulky and prone to snags like ink-related issues and jamming, especially in extreme climates, and the rather-impractical task of having them serviced and maintained in between elections, the EC views the solution as highly impractical in the long run.
                                                              There is the second option of going in for an entirely new set of EVMs, which will have an in-built hardware to enable a paper trail. This will cost approximately Rs 1,800 crore, EC sources said. According to an EC official, it is more feasible to replace all the existing EVMs and bring in brand new paper-trail-enabled EVMs. However, this will be impossible by the 2014 general election.
                                                              The need for a voter-verifiable paper audit trail was articulated following the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, with senior BJP leaders alleging that the EVM design was prone to tampering. Independent experts too stepped in to allege that the EVMs were not completely tamper-proof, though they could not clearly demonstrate this before the EC.
                                                              At an all-party meeting convened by the EC in October 2010, the BJP sought a paper trail to enable the voter to verify if his vote had been cast in favour of the party which he had chosen by pressing the relevant button on the EVM. This led the EC to set up an expert technical committee, headed by former IIT-Chennai director P V Indiresan, to look at the technical feasibility of introducing a voter-verifiable paper audit trail.
                                                              The committee favoured introduction of the paper trail system and recommended field testing of prototypes.

                                                              http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-08-27/india/33423526_1_evms-voter-verifiable-paper-nirvachan-sadan

                                                              The first three Bharat Ratnas saw the future with clarity -- Gopalkrishna Gandhi

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                                                              A CHRONICLE FORETOLD
                                                              - The first three Bharat Ratnas saw the future with clarity

                                                              Three Indians were decorated with the Bharat Ratna in the very first year — 1954 — that the civilian awards were instituted: the elder statesman, Chakravarti Rajagopalachari, the vice- president, Sarvepalli Radhakrishnan and the Nobel laureate, C.V. Raman. No one said at the time that all three were south Indian, all three Brahmins. Their pre-eminence was manifest. They accepted the decoration with respect and went about their work according to their lights.

                                                              All three had a Calcutta connection. CR had served as the first governor of West Bengal, the other two had taught, with distinction and dedication, at the University of Calcutta. Om krato smara kritam smara, the Isha Upanishad tells us. The work alone is to be remembered, the work alone.

                                                              It is instructive to see, on the anniversary of our Independence, what these men had to say in the midst of and, indeed, from the very heart of their work, about their country, their people.

                                                              CR was a prisoner of the raj in 1921. Holed up in Vellore Jail, he could have been bitter about his jailors, about the imperial power. He could have looked forward to swaraj as one might to a dreamlike goal. But no, he did something that surprised his contemporaries then and surprises us now. He wrote in his jail diary: “We all ought to know that Swaraj will not at once or, I think, even for a long time to come, be better government or greater happiness for the people. Elections and their corruptions, injustice, and the power and tyranny of wealth, and inefficiency of administration, will make a hell of life as soon as freedom is given to us. Men will look regretfully back to the old regime of comparative justice, and efficient, peaceful, more or less honest administration. The only thing gained will be that as a race we will be saved from dishonour and subordination.”

                                                              This was a full quarter century before swarajwas attained.

                                                              Radhakrishnan was a member of the constituent assembly on the midnight of August 14/15, 1947 when, with Jawaharlal Nehru, he made a speech of surpassing value. Reminding the nation of “our national faults of character, our domestic despotism, obscurantism, narrow-mindedness, superstitious bigotry”, he said almost exactly what CR had said 25 years earlier. 

                                                              Radhakrishnan’s words: “Our opportunities are great but let me warn you that when power strips ability, we will fall on evil days… From tomorrow morning — from midnight today — we can no longer throw the blame on the British. We have to assume the responsibility ourselves for what we do. A free India will be judged by the way in which it will serve the interests of the common man in the matter of food, clothing, shelter and the social services. Unless we destroy corruption in high places, root out every trace of nepotism, love of power, profiteering and black-marketing which have spoiled the good name of this great country in recent times, we will not be able to raise the standards of efficiency in administration…”

                                                              That was said at the very moment free India was born.

                                                              I do not have access to any comment made by C.V. Raman on the eve of Independence but the following observation of CVR’s to young Indians is an agnatic cousin of CR’s and SR’s: “Success can only come to you by courageous devotion to the task lying in front of you and there is nothing worth in this world that can come without the sweat of our brow. I can assert without fear of contradiction that the quality of the Indian mind is equal to the quality of any Teutonic, Nordic or Anglo-Saxon mind. What we lack is perhaps courage, what we lack is perhaps driving force which takes one anywhere. We have, I think, developed an inferiority complex. I think what is needed in India today is the destruction of that defeatist spirit…”

                                                              Today, those three Bharat Ratnas would have been saddened to see their apprehensions and prognoses coming true. Generalizations are wrong but who can deny that efficiency of administration is not India’s best introduction ? Who can deny that our elections have brought us a great stature in the world but have also brought corruption? And where is the doubt that the power and tyranny of wealth — CR’s startling phrase — rules the land?

                                                              Power, political and monetary power, outstrips ability by a long measure. And corruption in high places — Radhakrishnan’s astonishingly prescient expression — has disfigured the image of our public life.

                                                              As for the sweat of the brow, Raman’s ideal, that has long since ceased to be valued, especially in oneself. The concept of hard work, of service, of what used to be called pride in one’s work, is now an archaism. Except in our gifted artisans who survive miraculously, in our armed forces, in the body of farm labourers across the country and in a few remarkable professions like those of nurses and teachers, ‘work ethic’ is a national casualty.

                                                              We seek to derive the maximum advantage from the minimum effort. There is a mentality, widespread if not omnipresent, which sees the plodder as a fool, the successful shirker as clever. It only follows that the man or woman who is honest with money is regarded as naïve, to be pitied and the crook who gets caught making illegal money as unlucky. It is the honest politician, by which I mean one who does not encash files, sell favours, turn opportunities of service into ATMs, and there still are many of those, who keeps us in hope. It is, likewise, the exceptional official, doing the work of a hundred, who keeps the administrative machine from collapsing. Thank god there are some such exceptional men and women, still, amidst us. But by and large, the surface density of work-shirking, responsibility-dodging, blame-shifting, back-biting, tale-carrying and, alas, palm-itchy laggards has swelled beyond belief. What we are, the State is.

                                                              Radhakrishnan also spoke of intolerance.

                                                              This trait takes many forms but nowhere more seriously than in politics. Ironically and paradoxically, the denominationally intolerant are being projected as administratively able. Those with a questionable secular integrity are said to be men of unquestionable financial integrity.

                                                              The first three Bharat Ratnas foresaw more than ordinary mortals can. But even they could not foresee the self-contradictory piquancy of our predicament today. The liberal Indian, the Indian with a secular conscience, an innately democratic instinct, a value for civil rights, is shown up as effete , a political pansy, whereas the macho rattler of sabres, is offered to the nation as its saviour. A country with its work ethic weakened, its abilities outstripped by narrow self-interests, and its domination by the power and tyranny of wealth well-nigh complete, is easily persuaded to say ‘give us a benign dictator’. Fascism comforts the sloth of mind, the slow of thought, the valuationally sluggish. Fascism excites the timid, the languid and the bored.

                                                              And so we are seeing rise in the very heart of a democratic but languorous India a poison plume of the most corrosive 
                                                              intolerance. In the coming months the nation will be obsessed with who will ‘make it’ to the Lal Qila next August 15. That is only natural. But we should be agonizing about what kind of flag will be unfurled on its ramparts — the great national tricolour or one with a skull and crossed bones sewn behind it.

                                                              http://www.telegraphindia.com/1130815/jsp/opinion/story_17230988.jsp#.Ug8CytIwerZ

                                                              Abdul Karim Tunda, LeT terrorist, arrested

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                                                              Dawood's key aide Abdul Karim Tunda arrested in UAE
                                                              Dawood's key aide Abdul Karim Tunda arrested in UAE

                                                              Abdul Karim Tunda, Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist, arrested

                                                              NEW DELHI: The Delhi Police's special cell just got closer to international terrorist Dawood Ibrahim after it managed to arrest his key aideAbdul Karim Tunda on Friday night from the Indo-Nepal border at the behest of intelligence agencies who have been trailing him for over twenty years.

                                                              Tunda, a top Lashkar terrorist, had been last arrested in Kenya in 2005 but had fled from the police custody. He had been on the run since. He is wanted in over 40 cases of terror strikes in India.

                                                              Abdul Karim Tunda, along with Hafeez Saeed, Mulana Masood Azhar and Dawood Ibrahim, figured in the list of 'top 20 wanted terrorists' which was given to Pakistan by India after the 26/11 attacks.

                                                              Tunda, over a period of 16 years, post 1997, has shuttled between Karachi, Kenya and West Asia.

                                                              A resident of Pilukawha, Ghaziabad, Tunda shot into prominence with small serial blasts in the national capital between 1995-97. He got the moniker of Tunda after his right hand blew off while making a crude bomb.

                                                              2G court: Swamy's plea hearing deferred to Oct. 5

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                                                              2G: Court defers hearing on Swamy's plea to Oct 5

                                                              PTI  New Delhi, August 17, 2013

                                                              A Delhi court on Saturday fixed October 5 for hearing arguments on a plea by former MP Subramanian Swamy that the written statement given by former telecom minister A Raja to the JPC on 2G scam be placed before court.
                                                              The matter, which was scheduled for arguments on Saturday, was deferred as the counsel appearing on behalf of Swamy told the court that the former MP had written a letter to Lok Sabha speaker Meira Kumar on the issue on whether Raja's statement to the Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) was "privileged".
                                                              The counsel told special CBI judge OP Saini that they are awaiting the reply from the Lok Sabha speaker and after seeking clarification on this issue, Swamy would advance arguments on his plea.
                                                              He informed the judge that it would take around a month to get the response and thus the court should defer the matter.
                                                              Swamy had earlier argued that Raja's statement to the JPC is an important piece of document to arrive at the truth and the logical conclusion in 2G spectrum case.
                                                              He had also alleged that examination of witnesses of the CBI is "incomplete" as they have not discussed the meetings which took place regarding the allocation of 2G spectrum during Raja's tenure as telecom minister.
                                                              He had said that Raja's statement to the JPC speaks about various meetings which took place regarding allocation and pricing of spectrum.
                                                              Swamy had also pressed for summoning of then finance ministry officials Sindhushree Khullar and Shyamala Shukla as witnesses to explain the file notings during those meetings.
                                                              On May 4, Swamy had approached the court saying, "In order to ensure that all aspects of the case are examined, actual culprits may be booked, tried and punished it is necessary to summon the complete written statement filed by Raja before the JPC."
                                                              Swamy has sought summoning of Raja's April 22 written statement to JPC chairman PC Chacko along with the draft report of the JPC, the draft report of the Public Accounts Committee and also that of Shukla, the then director of infrastructure, and Khullar, the then additional secretary of economic affairs department, to ascertain the truth.

                                                              http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/NewDelhi/2G-Court-defers-hearing-on-Swamy-s-plea-to-Oct-5/Article1-1108966.aspx

                                                              Sonianomics is bad for India - R. Jagannathan

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                                                              Sonianomics is to blame for rupee, Sensex crashes

                                                              by  Aug 17, 2013

                                                              So the rupee’s crashed, the markets have wiltedbonds are down, andgold is back as an investment class – at least back home. But no one is willing to name the elephant in the room that’s caused all this ruin.
                                                              Everybody is keen to mention the proximate causes for the collapse of confidence in the Indian economy – the panic measures announced byManmohan Singh, P Chidambaram and RBI Governor D Subbarao, among them – but not the real reason for it all: Sonianomics and the resultant Rahul-flation (inflation fuelled by mindless government spending that boost inflation).
                                                              Confidence in an economy does not collapse due to bad economics alone; it is usually the result of wrong choices made by politicians over a prolonged period of time. A combo of disastrous political economy choices is the reason why India is staring down an abyss and the root cause is Sonia Gandhi. It is not the PM or the FM, for everyone knows they are not their own masters. The only thing one can blame them for is doing things they don’t really believe in.
                                                              Yesterday’s twin crashes of the rupee and the markets were the result of the market’s final realisation that Sonianomics will dominate economic thinking over the next nine months before the next government is born. No sensible investor will wait till then to figure out whether we are going to get a bonny baby or Quasimodo after this incubation of political suspense. Foreign investors can head for the exits, but Indians can show their displeasure only by buying gold. That’s why gold breached Rs 31,000 per 10 gm, when it is ruling weak all over the world.
                                                              The stock markets crashed yesterday following a fall in the rupee value. PTI
                                                              The stock markets crashed yesterday following a fall in the rupee value. PTI
                                                              Let’s be clear about what Sonianomics is all about and what it is not. Sonianomics is not about the poor. It is about the non-poor and the not-so-poor. It is not about inclusiveness, as I will prove later. It is not even anti-reform. It is merely about keeping the family in power and buying sufficient votes by using taxpayers resources for it.
                                                              The rupee is heading south because everyone now knows this. What is good for Sonia is bad for the economy.
                                                              Here’s how Sonianomics has been driving bad economics all through and hence dangerous for the Indian economy.
                                                              Let’s start with the rupee and the present. Is the crash of the currency bad for an economy that has been running a high current account deficit for several years running? Not at all. A weak rupee allows the Indian economy to adjust fiscally and become competitive again. As TN Ninan points out in his incisive column in Business Standard today, in both the times when the rupee was seriously devalued in history (1966 and 1991), the economy roared back and corrected itself.
                                                              Sonianomics is about not allowing this correction to happen naturally.
                                                              Ninan writes: “In  the 15 years to 1965-66, Indian exports had grown by a modest 20 percent, while imports (despite being artificially compressed through controls) had shot up by 131.3 percent. Balanced trade flows in 1950-51 had given way to a massive trade deficit. After the devaluation, the story changed direction. Exports rose faster than before, while imports actually shrank. By 1970-71, therefore, the trade deficit had collapsed to barely a tenth of what it had been just five years earlier.”
                                                              The 1991 story is better. Ninan writes: “Better known is the history of the devaluation of the early 1990s: from Rs 19.64 to the dollar in March 1991 to Rs 31.23 a year later (a drop of 59 percent). The consequence was that, by 1993-94, the trade deficit had shrivelled to barely one-sixth of its size three years earlier. And the non-oil trade balance had moved from a deficit to a massive surplus.”
                                                              If this is something that both Manmohan Singh and Chidambaram know, how is it that they are acting completely contrary to their economic instincts and trying to shore up the rupee through dubious means? The answer is Sonia Gandhi and her election time-table. What is good for the economy is not good for her in two ways: letting the rupee fall means higher oil prices and higher current account and fiscal deficits, which means an even lower rupee and higher inflation.  And higher deficits will make her food security bill unviable and drive inflation again.
                                                              The need to get a mandate and place Rahul Gandhi in the PM’s gaddi has only resulted in inflation – hence Rahul-flation.
                                                              Sonia Gandhi’s band of drawing room supporters will use emotional blackmail to tell us otherwise. They will thus argue that when children are dying and growing stunted due to hunger and malnutrition, only callous people will talk about current account deficits, fiscal deficits, and the rupee.
                                                              They need to be disabused of the idea that Sonia Gandhi is all for the poor. In fact, all the political decisions of UPA-1 and UPA-2 indicate that her policies are about buying votes by offering freebies to the non-poor.
                                                              Hypothesis 1: Sonianomics is not about the poor. It’s about wooing the non-poor
                                                              #1: The Food Security Bill is exhibit A. It seeks to cover 67 percent of the population when only 22 percent of the people are below the poverty line, according to the government’s own calculations. By adding 45 percent of the non-poor to the 22 percent poor (who anyway get subsidised grain from the public distribution system even now), Sonia is effectively seeking to buy the votes of the non-poor. In fact, asNarendra Modi pointed out, by reducing the entitlements from 35 kg per household for below poverty line (BPL) cases to 25 kg, the scheme now moves from being pro-poor to pro-non-poor.
                                                              #2: By far the biggest element of vote buying over UPA-1 and UPA-2 has come through the fuel subsidies on diesel, petrol, kerosene and LPG. My back-of-the-envelope calculations show that during the last nine years, and going upto 2014, the UPA would have dished out more than Rs 7,50,000 crore in petroleum subsidies either directly or by subsidies routed through ONGC, Oil India and Gail. That’s like a cash payment to every man, woman and child in India of over Rs 6,000 during UPA-1 and UPA-2. Even if we assume one third of the subsidies went to the poor, the rest of the subsidy – Rs 5,00,000 crore – was given to the non-poor. Still think Sonia Gandhi is about the poor? And we are not even talking about food and fertiliser subsidies to the non-poor.
                                                              Are UPA policies targeting the non-poor more than those who need benefits? Reuters
                                                              Are UPA policies targeting the non-poor more than those who need benefits? Reuters
                                                              Hypothesis 2: Sonianomics is not even about inclusiveness. If the poor benefit, it is incidental.
                                                              What we do know is that massive amounts of money have been spent through doles and transfers to rural areas during UPA-1 and UPA-1. This is why poverty has reduced from over 37 percent to 22 percent of the population during its tenure.
                                                              This might indicate, on the surface, that Sonia is pro-poor, but a closer look at the numbers show why this is likely to be wrong. The decline in poverty may be reversible.
                                                              #1: The first sign of inclusiveness is financial inclusion, about which everyone in UPA has been talking about. But despite massive cash transfers, farm loan waivers, and high minimum support prices (MSPs) for food procurement, what do we notice? The share of rural bank branches has fallen from 57 percent in 1994 and 50 percent during the NDA period in 2000 to just 37 percent in 2011. If so much money is going to the poor, shouldn’t there be more banks to do this? Or is most of the money being siphoned off? Then you don’t need banks.
                                                              Credit to the rural sector has just about doubled from 2006 (mid-point of UPA-1) to 2012, from Rs 1,99,423 crore to Rs 3,80,518 crore. Credit to urban and metropolitan areas has, meanwhile, tripled and quadrupled respectively.
                                                              Now, why would an inclusive government oversee the expansion of wealth and credit to urban areas during its years in power after talking about the rural areas and the poor? Clearly, the UPA’s real focus is the non-poor. And most of the money intended for the rural poor may be going elsewhere.
                                                              #2: Next, look at jobs. If the truest measure of inclusiveness is enabling people to stand on their own feet rather than on crutches, the measure ought to be net job creation. Here the evidence is clearly that the UPA tenures created far less jobs than the NDA period. (Read here, and here, and here, and here). The UPA reduced rural poverty with doles and make-work schemes, which are clearly not sustainable indefinitely, and certainly when the economy is doing so badly.
                                                              The poverty ratio has been brought down by spending Rs 7,50,000 crore on fuel subsidies mostly to the non-poor, which ultimately trickles down  to the poor as well; Rs 2,00,000 crore of NREGA money; Rs 72,000 crore of farm loan waivers; huge increases in MSPs during 2008 and later; and massive doses of fertiliser and food subsidies.
                                                              The UPA is bringing down poverty by continuously feeding a man his daily fish, not by teaching him to fish. This is simply unsustainable – as the crash of the economy right now is proving.
                                                              The UPA is clearly not about inclusiveness; it is about feudal doles.
                                                              Hypothesis 3: Sonia is not pro- or anti-reform. She is for reform only if it fetches votes, not otherwise.
                                                              #1: Only one bit of evidence is needed to prove this. In 2012, the Congress party enthusiastically embraced subsidy reforms in the form of direct cash transfers to the poor. This is why Chidambaram and Jairam Ramesh even coined the slogan “Aapka paisa, aapke haath” in a joint press conference.
                                                              However, direct cash transfers using UID numbers carry an inherent political risk: if it weeds out potential beneficiaries, it will also bring voter angst.
                                                              Are the policy decisions governed by a feudal mindset? AP
                                                              Are the policy decisions governed by a feudal mindset? AP
                                                              This is why the scheme is being soft-pedalled and Sonia has opted for the Food Security Bill that will cover the non-poor. Wooing the voters means not differentiating between the poor and non-poor.
                                                              #2: The 2G and Coalgate scams – one by the DMK’s A Raja and the other under the sleepy eyes of Manmohan Singh himself – are further indicative of Sonia not being pro- or anti-reform. She is motivated purely by her political interests, You can see the gifting of spectrum and coal blocks as pro- or anti-reform, depending on whether you are for growth or against growth. However, not having a proper process to give these things away free is indicative of a feudal mindset – where concessions are given for political reasons and not economic ones. Neither of these scams could have happened without Sonia knowing about it. Her political secretary Ahmed Patel is not so dumb as to not have briefed her about it. So how can she avoid blame for it?
                                                              Put all these factors together, and you should know why Sonianomics is not about the poor, why it is not about inclusiveness, and why it is only about electoral math.
                                                              The rupee is falling because everyone now knows this. The penny has dropped with investors; which is why the markets crashed on Friday.

                                                              In the short run, thus, Sonianomics is bad for India.


                                                              • Manish Sagar 
                                                                Sonianomics is all about ruining the Indian economy for the next NM Govrnment (they know they are going to lose the election) to inherit. Her party had a taste of it in 1991 when Narsinhrao got the reins of such an economy. Sonianomics does not care if Indian economy goes the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) way as had been two years back, it just wants to enjoy seeing NM struggling with a shattered economy and cry hoarse to condemn NM that they brought the downfall. This is all planning for the next six years keeping the 2019 election in focus.
                                                                A photo of the twin towers and a plane ramming into it, showing the towers as stock market and Indian rupee each and the plane as Sonianomics would aptly describe the situation.
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                                                                  CHADDI ME GADDI 
                                                                  Register urself for Voter List
                                                                  As per LAW, WHERE EVER U STAY FOR MORE THAT 6 Months.. U can Vote there
                                                                  Supporse U are from Punjab and Punjab Domicile and U stay in DELHI for more than 6 Months.. u can still VOTE in UPCOMING Delhi Election
                                                                  Don't allow Bangladeshi to Decide ur Country Future
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                                                                    Ajit  CHADDI ME GADDI 
                                                                    I registered all in my family today.3 votes for Modi.
                                                                    It is simple... fill the form attach ID,Dt of birth ,address proof and its done. You can do it ONLINE also on election commission website also.Hurry up!!!
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                                                                    Madhav 
                                                                    After reading your blog RJ ,I have nothing to say but only choicest of abuses to the corrupt traitors and psychophants in UPA who have blindly played Sonia's tune and caused irreparable damage to India's economy and credibility.
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                                                                    Aman 
                                                                    Excellent article as always. Hope other blind journalists on FP read this.
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                                                                      aamabdul  Aman 
                                                                      You mean the modi bashing industrialists here on FP like: Luxme, Misraji, Bekar Patel and their ilk?... They won't learn cause they're too high being 'liberals' a tag which they wear with hollow pride and unsubstantiated biases and leftist world-view where 'right-wing' is cause of all the troubles.
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                                                                      aamabdul 
                                                                      We educated Indians have been going on a holiday on the election day,
                                                                      and we have seen where that has brought us today!! .. We should own up 
                                                                      to atleast part of the blame for bringing this country at this state.
                                                                      All is not lost!!!
                                                                      - Register yourself for a voter ID.
                                                                      - Make sure your name appears on the electoral list!!! (Most Important).
                                                                      - Before election talk to as many people as you can and tell them 
                                                                      what is going on in the country and how Congress misrule has brought 
                                                                      trouble for the country both economically and socially 
                                                                      ("pseudo-secularism"). Every vote counts!! even if you convince one 
                                                                      person to vote against Congress and their allies, you would make a big 
                                                                      difference!!
                                                                      - Educate people on how Lok Sabha elections are different than Vidhan
                                                                      Sabha elections and how people should look at the bigger picture when 
                                                                      voting in Lok Sabha elections. (Local issues are of no relevance for Lok
                                                                      Sabha elections).
                                                                      - On Election day talk to people around you standing in the que and 
                                                                      try to pitch hard for the change in government and how Congress needs to
                                                                      be thrown in the dustbin for good.!!
                                                                      - Hope and pray that people of this country vote out Congress and 
                                                                      bring in the much needed change that this country needs desperately.
                                                                      INDIA FIRST!
                                                                      see more
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                                                                      KKR, Mumbai 
                                                                      Excellent analysis . Instead of Sonia , who is care taker of a family business than the country, I would rather blame MMS , Chidu and Pranab Mukharjee for this sorry state of affairs . What was or is their complusion to take the country down the tube knowing very well the implications of the policy choices they made. Is power is the only religion ? Is there no intellectual honesty in these guys ? The solution is change in entire ruling establishment in Delhi , including well entrenched opposition leaders , who have huge vestd interest in keeping the country poor and in chaos , to suit their own interest . NaMo is certainly set to shake the feudal set up of delhi .
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                                                                        mohini 
                                                                        Recall Edmund Burke's "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." Keep that in mind each and every day, every action leading upto the general elections.
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                                                                          CHADDI ME GADDI 
                                                                          Sometimes I regret that why BALA SAHIB THACKERAY DIED
                                                                          HE WAS GREAT LEADER
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                                                                            CHADDI ME GADDI 
                                                                            I think Leader are those Who are Deliver Speech anytime and Anywhere without looking for paper reading Like Modi Deliver On I-day ..He Gives Speech Without Reading
                                                                            JP Narayan Used to do This...... Atal Bihari Vajpayee used to do this
                                                                            BALA SAHIB Used to give PUBLIC SPEECH on the Middle of the Road
                                                                            Even Hitler Used TO BE good ORATOR.
                                                                            But There are Leader in India who cannot Deliver Speech Without Reading
                                                                            I bet That Digvijay Singh Can give Speech Without Reading but His Master cannot
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                                                                              Deep Shankar Karmakar 
                                                                              sonia maino is a bar waitress!! who told the people of this country to put her in that position of power without accountability. once was an aberration, twice has to be a suicide and thats what has happened, petrol at 80, onion at 80, rupee at 62. vote khangress ruin nation.
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                                                                                anon. 
                                                                                But the people of India chose Sonia.
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                                                                                  Soumya  anon. 
                                                                                  Bahut Badi galti go gayi 'Anon' ji (sic)... bahut bure phase hain... but as every person has to pay for his/ her karma, bhugat rahe hain!!!!
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                                                                                    mohini  anon. 
                                                                                    No We didn't choose Sonia , we chose Manmohan - who we thought,was a man of integrity, intelligence & can lead us in 21st century. But we were highly mistaken on that account, for now we know that this man possesses none. As for Sonia, she was chosen by congress because these guys apparently cant walk without a crutch called Gandhi Family. So dependent are they on this family, that now they are calling for entry of Miraya & Raihan Vadra in the political arena as RAHUL seems to be a damp (& Dumb Squib) :)
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                                                                                      Thinker  anon. 
                                                                                      Sorry. UPA is not formed out of pre-poll alliance. most of them got elected by cross-congress votes. Congress has no majority on its own, It is a coalition government. so people have not chosen Sonia.
                                                                                      Your's is the misguiding statement.
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                                                                                        Development  anon. 
                                                                                        THEY DID NOT CHOOSE SONIA The Congress did NOT get the majority vote. That's why the UPA is a coalition.
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                                                                                        system is broken 
                                                                                        this is what you get when you put an economic illiterate in charge of a country who spouts populist slogans as if that is the path to best results - it is the path to power no doubt - the joys of democracy.
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                                                                                          narayan 
                                                                                          Lots of pro congress messages on this article. It seems that the congress run call center did not opt for long weekend.
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                                                                                            CHADDI ME GADDI 
                                                                                            I think Leader are those Who are Deliver Speech anytime and Anywhere without looking for paper reading Like Modi Deliver On I-day ..He Gives Speech Without Reading
                                                                                            JP Narayan Used to do This...... Atal Bihari Vajpayee used to do this
                                                                                            Even Hitler Used TO BE good ORATOR
                                                                                            But There are Leader in India who cannot Deliver Speech Without Reading
                                                                                            I bet That Digvijay Singh Can give Speech Without Reading but their Master cannot
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                                                                                            Vishwa 
                                                                                            Even USA facing heat due to over social expenditure , for everything there is limit. I m not saying poor shouldn't get free food , but only spending on them for the sake of vote is not good thing. Small scale industries are suffering this is major JOB sector in india due to instability ..
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                                                                                              CHADDI ME GADDI 
                                                                                              Varun Gandhi Rightly said " Don't Vote Me because my Surname is GANDHI "
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                                                                                                Vishwa 
                                                                                                kudos ,at last [people starting see the real picture , people starts to feel bad when thier own job under threat , then start thinking about real couse , you know ,after Network 18 job cut , people in the media started realise the Soniaomics or through money, & get vote
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                                                                                                  CHADDI ME GADDI 
                                                                                                  If Ruppee will cross 70, then there will be Situation of Hyperinflationary in India because of 50 % of Edible oil and 30 % of Pulses is Imported
                                                                                                  There is No Difference Between Zimbabwe where ROBERT MUGABE and Sonia Gandhi both want people to be poor and in Poverty so that they can Rule
                                                                                                  And Indians are so FOOL To VOTE OUT NATIONALIST LIKE VAJPAYEE for ITALIAN who still cannot Deliver her Speech without reading
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                                                                                                    Nimesh Patel 
                                                                                                    A very good Article Mr. Jagannathan.. Great analysis..
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                                                                                                      JagoBaba 
                                                                                                      GET THE ITALLIAN MAFIA out of this Country. 
                                                                                                      We need to decouple our dependence on the Dollar. Instill more Research and Development projects for EVERYTHING. Create and build our own weapons. WE HAVE EVERYTHING WE NEED. Why are we still a beggar nation with poor people who dont even have a full plate of food to eat for 5 Rs!!
                                                                                                      Congress will take us to the DARK AGES and brand ANYONE WHO OPPOSES THEM (even ONLINE) AS AN ENEMY OF THE STATE.
                                                                                                      WE NEED TO GET RID OF THE SCUM running this Country called congress. If we don't GOODNESS SAVE US, because we DO NOT even have a right to ARMS to protect ourselves when ANARCHY will ensue on the streets.
                                                                                                      One more tenure of Congress Rule and WE WILL GET DESTROYED.
                                                                                                      Antonia, Maunmohan, Chaddu, Dogvijay, Chubbal, Manish Khilari, Manjay ha ETC will have to be made accountable for raping this country and her people, without any remorse.
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                                                                                                        worried Indian 
                                                                                                        red the title and right away knew it would be jaggi,you are awesome man!
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                                                                                                          Anu 
                                                                                                          We are largely a feudal society struggling in bits and pieces to move to becoming a merit based society. This is reflected in every walk of life - 
                                                                                                          - at home where nothing can happen without the patriarchs approval
                                                                                                          - in government, the mai-baap culture in governance (we rule the people, not serve them)
                                                                                                          - interaction with police/judiciary/public sector bank where we the customer is expected to smile and say please, and the public 'servant' thinks he is doling out a favor to us
                                                                                                          - in business, the preference is given to loyalty and references over merit
                                                                                                          - in schools, where those kids are made prefects whose fathers are bigshots
                                                                                                          - on the road, where preference is given to the VIP instead of the common man who has paid the road tax
                                                                                                          That is why Congress cannot think of life beyond a mai-baap (read: Gandhi) who cannot be questioned. That is why there is a clamor for naming of prime ministerial candidate within BJP - so we know who is the mai-baap. And regarding the rest of the political parties, except for the left, all parties are openly feudal where the gaddi is inherited rather than earned.
                                                                                                          Is it a wonder why Sonia 'rules' ? I think we are to blame more for this situation than her - she is only taking advantage of a situation, which anyone would in her place. Answer yourself honestly - given a chance, wouldn't you?
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                                                                                                            voltairesdog  Anu 
                                                                                                            This is an intuitive argument, but one that has been countered successfully; by Ruchir Sharma for example, who posited that the form of government did not matter for successful growth as long as it had a sound grasp of economic fundamentals. A commonly held example is that of China, which has had power concentrated in the hands of very few, but still managed to grow by leaps and bounds.
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                                                                                                            Lakshmi Swami 
                                                                                                            To the author ,
                                                                                                            Sir, are you the guru being referred to by Dr Singh in his retort (as you seem to have opened up the patient but seemingly do not know how to stitch it all back):
                                                                                                            QUOTE
                                                                                                            When asked that the Current Account Deficit was still high, Dr. Singh acknowledged the problem saying high imports of gold was one of the major factors contributing to it.
                                                                                                            “We seem to be investing a lot in unproductive assets,” he added.
                                                                                                            He then turned to a leading economic journalist and said, “Ask him. He is the guru.”UNQUOTE
                                                                                                            http://www. thehindu. com/business/Economy/no-throwback-to-1991-crisis-manmohan/article5031848.ece?homepage=true
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                                                                                                              Mindchange  Lakshmi Swami 
                                                                                                              Lakshmi, people like me used to believe that Sonia Gandhi did wonderful service to the country by placing Manmohan Singh as PM, especially because he was the "right man" for our economy. It was a team made in heaven - "secular politics + good economics".
                                                                                                              Events have proved us utterly, horribly wrong. This team is not secular (coalition with Muslim League in Kerala), and disastrous at running the economy. As a citizen, I am extremely disappointed but as a citizen it is also my duty to vote for someone else next time.
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                                                                                                                chakrapani  Lakshmi Swami 
                                                                                                                LOL, good you brought that up, MMS could not lament any other reason than gold. Did he say lost investor's confidence, lost of confidence of business on government, complete policy paralysis. 
                                                                                                                All he could do is attempt a jibe on something, how shameful is that.
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                                                                                                                  Mahesh Gupta  Lakshmi Swami 
                                                                                                                  ROTFL , maybe it is the other Swami (not you Lakshmi) , the Swaminomics chap . Got to find out who got MMS's sharp end of wit (on rare occasions he displays it, he slices and dices)
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                                                                                                                    chakrapani  Mahesh Gupta 
                                                                                                                    You exactly taked like that Sanjay Jha2. Slicing dicing only in your sentence, no where in MMS's speech. He laments something and media patches up. Media shud be ashamed for not asking that guy right questions.
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                                                                                                                  pandurang kamath 
                                                                                                                  Every govt whether Congress or BJP or UPA or NDA have given subsidized Petrol,Diesel LPG etc with sole intention of not loosing popular votes although every party MPs knows it is wrong in economic principle. But who will bell the cat? You raise even one rupee, who ever is in opposition party(whether Congress lead or BJP lead opposition) feels it is their holy duty to oppose it.When BJP raised price when they were ruling,congress opposed it and it is vice versa when congress ruling. Look at media,newspaper headlines when price rised, how they create hype against price increase( while media/news papers rise price periodically of their papers justifying on one or other reason).It will be D day for India,when at least one political party comes to power and reduce or stops subsidy burden on the country given through various schemes for vote catching and subsidy goes only to economically weaker section of Indian citizens which should not be based on caste system.I have less hope that will come in this century or until country goes bankrupt where subsidy stops automatically!!!.. As regard to comments on other points of Mr Jagannathan article, I have already opined in my comments on one of his earlier article that he should be made Finance Minister who seems to have a magic wand to solve economic problems of India. Now based on above article, I feel he should be made Prime Minister of India with resting Finance Minister polio with himself. Jai Jagannathan and his tribes may increase.
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                                                                                                                    mohini 
                                                                                                                    Our country is doomed because of our politicians who indulge in vote bank calculations. Poor are being used as a tool to marginalise the middle- class, by offering them superficial fringe benefits. We the middle class dont go and vote so we dont count in their calculations. 
                                                                                                                    We are also doomed because people who are elected to work for us, have long forgotten the meaning of integrity and sincerity. That's why despite having highly educated FM & PM, we are in doldrums right now. THey have forgotten that their first allegiance should be towards us and not towards 2 half- educated politicians, who are sacrificing our children's future for their gains. Sonia & Rahul should be blamed for squandering away growth story of an emerging economy. 
                                                                                                                    There is no use of venting out our frustrations on online forums, if we dont act on them in real world. I bet many of us who appear so angry here, will be happy to go off on a short break on the election day holiday. If so, then dont complain about anything going wrong next time for your future will be decided by semi-literate people and half-baked politicians elected by them. Please act on your right to vote & demand accountability from our elected representatives!!!
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                                                                                                                      bidru 
                                                                                                                      I would blame MMS, Pranab and Chidu more than Sonia for the present state of the economy. Everybody knows Sonia's academic and intellectual background to expect any thing better from her. But, these gentlemen occupying responsible positions are supposed to be qualified economists to understand the long term adverse implication on the economy by the populist measures taken for short term political gains. This is sort to treachery against the nation. They must be held responsible for these acts of omissions / commissions.
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                                                                                                                        Khali  bidru 
                                                                                                                        That is why the Congress scooted off Pranab da to Rashtrapati Bhavan and put in place Chidu who is more of a party worker, to help Rahul up the ladder. That's why they installed a statue in the PM's chair so that he'd never react to the developments around him. That's why they withdrew some new ministers and replaced them with Octogenarian ministers to hype up the tempo around Bonny Baby.
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                                                                                                                        KUCHH GALAT KAHA KYA 
                                                                                                                        Very well written. A lady having no knowledge of economics or administration is ruining the basic fabric of the country. Instead of making poor to stand on their own feet, empower them through providing conducive atmosphere to earn, the UPA has only been providing free crutches. If the poor are empowered and allowed to stand on their own feet and become literate, they won't be dependent on the freebies given by Congress. Thus it would lose its purchasable vote bank. UPA appears to believe either loot the national economy or distribute whatever is left in treasury to buy votes. It would finish the country.
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                                                                                                                          Parthesh Jani 
                                                                                                                          It goes like that... you can fool people of parliament but you can't fool the people of market.... They will not shout but take the action against it... Posco, Mittal, Walmart...
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                                                                                                                            Khali  Parthesh Jani 
                                                                                                                            You're right; this the most basic characteristic of people in parliament - the ability to be fooled in return for party ticket, money, or political security. Period.
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                                                                                                                            ShockTreatment 
                                                                                                                            CHANGE THE SMELL OF THE PLACE
                                                                                                                            The late Professor Sumantra Ghoshal had once written a piece entitled 'Change the Smell of the Place'. Without getting into the details, he concluded that managers and approaches to management strongly affect cultures and can create or change the organisational context: 'the smell of the place'.
                                                                                                                            Today, India smells rotten, thanks to the misgovernment of the last 66 years, exacerbated by the singular concentration on doles and subsidies over the past nine years. Just look at the sad state of affairs - on per capita income, we lie at around the 145th place. More than half our people live in squalor. 40% of the world's malnourished children reside in this country. The state of almost anything - our infrastructure, our education system, our health care, our relationship with our neighbours - is abysmal. Add to that the high inflationary pressures under UPA 2 and our cup of woes runneth over. And as Jaggu rightly points out, it is all because of the 'stay in power at all costs' disposition of the empress.
                                                                                                                            It is time to throw out the corrupt, inept and selfish rulers who are taking India down the abyss for their own personal gains.
                                                                                                                            It is time to change the smell of India.
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                                                                                                                              Jitendra Desai 
                                                                                                                              She and her party are out to BUY those votes with so much of money.Yet refer to those voters' surveys! No one is buying up.Such huge spends and no returns.Amazing.With Sonianomics ,Congress will be reduced to double digits.
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                                                                                                                                voltairesdog 
                                                                                                                                It's unfortunate, but the firstpost comment section has degenerated into a cesspool of ad-hominem attacks. The anonymity of the internet grants a freedom to fingers on a keyboard that the tongue in a living room conversation simply does not have, and words are exchanged that do nothing to elevate the discussion. 
                                                                                                                                The article is hyperbolic, but at the heart of it is a crucial premise. Populist policies have a cost. A left of center response would be that redistribution is important, and a right of center response would be that it has negative consequences for growth. Both arguments can be presented with success, but not in the manner we have reduced it.
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                                                                                                                                  bidru  voltairesdog 
                                                                                                                                  You redistribute only from what you have, not from money borrowed in some other's name just to be recognised as Raja Harischandra.

                                                                                                                              http://www.firstpost.com/economy/sonianomics-is-to-blame-for-rupee-sensex-crashes-1040365.html

                                                                                                                              Meluhha standard – exchange market of Ancient Near East

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                                                                                                                              Meluhha standard – exchange market of Ancient Near East

                                                                                                                              -- Product offerings: stone (bead, polished pillars, ring-stones), mineral, turner (forge/stone-cutter, metal alloy products), stone-smithy guild (fortification)

                                                                                                                              Two tablets of Mohenjo-daro present the Meluhha standard: m0490, m0491.
                                                                                                                              m0490

                                                                                                                              Line drawing of m0491.

                                                                                                                              Four persons in a procession, each carrying a standard. This procession of four hieroglyphs constitute the Meluhha standard.

                                                                                                                              one standard-bearer carries a shaft with some object, which looks like a perforated bead  on top

                                                                                                                              one standard-bearer carries  a shaft with a scarf hanging from the top

                                                                                                                              one standard-bearer a stand with the figure of a one- horned young bull on top

                                                                                                                              one standard-bearer holds  aloft the shaft of the the standard device -- a composite of lathe and portable furnace.

                                                                                                                              See: http://bharatkalyan97.blogspot.in/2013/08/professions-on-ancient-near-east.htmlProfessions on Ancient Near East writing systems 

                                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                              Two of the four hieroglyphs carried in a procession by standard-bearers constitute the most frequently occurring motifs on Indus Writing Corpora: 1. one-horned young bull and 2. Standard device (lathe/portable furnace). For e.g. h006 Harappa seal, m001 Mohenjo-daro seal

                                                                                                                              Stone-smithy guild on a Meluhha standard

                                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                              This is an exchange market barter procession exhibiting the artificers’ craft products available for exchange. Products offered for barter are: stone beads, minerals (ore), turned metal tools, pots and pans from an artificers’ guild workshop (in a fortification)

                                                                                                                              Tablet m0490 Four Meluhha standard-bearers carrie images in a procession, comparable to Tablet m0491 which shows only three standard-bearers.


                                                                                                                              m0491 Tablet. Line drawing (right). This tablet showing three hieroglyphs may be called the Meluhha standard.


                                                                                                                              Text 2937The same text appears on both tablets m0490 and m0491 read rebus from r.: 


                                                                                                                              dula 'pair' Rebus: dul 'cast (metal)' kanḍ 'warrior's pair of bangles' Rebus:kanḍ  'stone'. sal 'splinter' Rebus: sal 'workshop'; khaḍā ‘circumscribe’ (Marathi) Rebus: khaḍā ‘nodule (ore), stone’; kolmo 'seedling' Rebus: kolami 'smithy/forge'. Thus the composite hieroglyph reads: stone smithy/forge.  bhaṭa ‘warrior’ Rebus: baṭa, 'kiln, furnace' (Santali); baṭa = a kind of iron (Gujarati)  kōnṭa‘corner’ (Nk.); kōṇṭu‘angle, corner’ (Tulu) khōṭ ‘alloyed’ (Punjabi) koṭe‘forged (metal)' (Santali). Rebus: kõdā ‘to turn in a lathe’ (B.) 

                                                                                                                              Thus, the artefacts offered for barter/exchange are: cast stone (ore) workshop, stone smithy/forge with furnace, alloyed (forged) metal turned in lathe.

                                                                                                                              Note: It is possible that the hieroglyph on Text 2937 shows a pair of 'bangle-glyphs' which connote such a pair of kaṇṭai‘warrior’s ankle rings’.

                                                                                                                              The procession is a celebration of the graduation of a stone-cutter as a metal-turner in a smithy/forge. A sangatarāśū‘stone-cutter’ or lapidary of neolithic/chalolithic age had graduated into a metal turner’s workshop (ko), working with metallic minerals (dhatu) and alloys (khōṭ) of the bronze age.

                                                                                                                              Dawn of the bronze age is best exemplified by this Mohenjo-daro tablet which shows a procession of four hieroglyphs carried on the shoulders of four persons. The hieroglyphs are:

                                                                                                                              1. Perforated bead carried on a standard kaṇṭu‘bead’ Rebus: kanḍu, ‘stone’ (Gadba)
                                                                                                                              2. Scarf carried on a pole (dhaṭu  m.  (also dhaṭhu)  m. ‘scarf’  (WPah.) (CDIAL 6707) Rebus: dhatu ‘mineral’ (Santali)
                                                                                                                              3.  A young bull carried on a stand kõdāyoung bull’ Rebus: kõda ‘turnerkohorn’ Rebus: ko‘workshop’
                                                                                                                              4. Portable standard device sã̄gāḍTop part: lathe-gimlet; Bottom part: portable furnace’Rebus: sangatarāśūstone-cutter. sanghāḍo (Gujarati) cutting stone, gilding (Gujarati); sangsāru karau = to stone (Sindhi) sanghāḍiyo, a worker on a lathe (Gujarati) Rebus jāṅgaḍ also indicated that the products offered were on the well-settled Indian legal system of transport and exchange as ‘goods sent on approval or ‘on sale or return’.
                                                                                                                              caṭṭam‘image’ (Tamil) Rebus: saṭṭī f. ʻ exchange market ʼ (Punjabi) ēgu‘procession’.

                                                                                                                              Combined reading for the joined or ligatured glyphs is an announcement of barter/exchange offerings (saṭṭī) from the guild (fortification): saṭṭī kanḍu dhatukõdā (koḍ) sangaḍa (sangara) ‘exchange market: stone, mineral, turner (forge/stone-cutter products), stone-smithy guild (fortification) -- goods delivered on jāṅgaḍ  'approval basis'’.

                                                                                                                              Glosses of Indian sprachbund :

                                                                                                                              Ta. ēku (ēki-) to go, pass, walk. Te. ēgu, (K.) ē̃gu to go, proceed; (Inscr.) ēgincu to carry the deity in procession through the village streets. Kur. ēknā (īkyas) to walk, direct or conduct affairs. Malt. éke to go, move.(DEDR 871). ఏగు [ ēgu ] ēgu. [Tel.] v. n. To go, resort, repair. పోవు. ఏగించు ēginṭsu. To send, to make one go. ఊరేగించు To carry (a god, a married couple, &c.) in procession through the town. ఏదుదెంచు ēgu-denṭsu. [Tel. ఏగు+తెంచు] v. i. To go, proceed, repair, resort. పోవు. Also, to come వచ్చు. ఏగుపెండ్లి ēgu-penḍli. n. A procession in which the bride and the bridegroom are carried through the streets of a town at the end of a wedding పెండ్లికడపట వధూవరులను ఊరేగించునట్టి వేడుక.

                                                                                                                              మెరవడి [ meravaḍi ] or మెరవణి mera-vaḍi. [Tel.] n. Courage, ability, energy, Increase, greatness, excess. Pride. ధైర్యము, శక్తి, ఉద్రేకము, ఆధిక్యము, అతిశయము, గౌరవము. A procession, ఉరేగింపు.

                                                                                                                              chaṭa S. chaṛaha f. ʻ thin pole ʼ, °hī ʻ walking-stick ʼ; L. chaṛī f. ʻ rod, switch ʼ (→ K. chīrü f. ʻ switch ʼ); P. chaṛ f. ʻ bamboo spear -- shaft ʼ, °ṛī f. ʻ stick, cane ʼ, Ku. chaṛ ʻ shoot ʼ, °ṛī ʻ stick ʼ; A. sari ʻ bamboo punting pole ʼ; B. chaṛ ʻ spearshaft ʼ, °ṛī ʻ switch, cane ʼ; Or. chaṛa ʻ spear -- shaft ʼ, °ṛī ʻ switch, cane ʼ; H. chaṛī f. ʻ stick, rod, whip ʼ (→ Bi. chaṛī ʻ thin stick ʼ, N. chaṛi); G. chaṛ m. ʻ reed, bamboo, spearshaft ʼ, °ṛī f. ʻ switch, cane ʼ; M. saḍ m. ʻ piece of stubble, stump of sugarcane ʼ, °ḍī f. ʻ splinter, piece of stubble ʼ. S.kcch. chaṛī f. ʻ a cane ʼ; WPah.kṭg. ċhɔṛɔ (ɔ́?) m. ʻ stick, rib ʼ, ċhɔ́ṛi f. ʻ stick, symbol like a stick carried before an idol in procession ʼ; J. chaṛi f. ʻ gold -- or silver -- mounted stick kept by a gatekeeper ʼ; Garh. chaṛ ʻ iron bar ʼ.WPah.kṭg. ċhíṭṭɔ ʻ lopped bare branch ʼ (CDIAL 4966). Kol. saṭṭa shoulder-blade, (SR.) shoulder. Nk. saṭṭa back. Go. (W. Ph.) saṭṭā, (Tr.) sattā, (G. Mu. S.) haṭṭa, (M. Ma.) aṭṭa, (Ko.) aṭa jaba shoulder (Voc.3326); (ASu.) seṭṭā shoulder-blade. ? Ma. caṭṭuvam shoulder-bone (or with 2309 Ta. caṭṭukam). (DEDR 2303). Ta. caṭṭam wooden frame, socket, plan, model, rule, order, regulation, exactness, precision; caṭṭa properly, rightly; caṭṭakam frame, framework; bed, couch; shape, figure, image, body. (DEDR 2304)  saṭṭa2 n. ʻ door -- frame ʼ lex. N. sāṭo ʻ crosspiece of bamboo or wood in a grass wall ʼ; G. sāṭ f. ʻ backbone ʼ, sāṭɔ m. ʻ frame of a cart ʼ; M. sāṭ, sāṭā m. ʻ frame of split bamboo ʼ (or < *chaṭṭa -- 2).(CDIAL 13102). 

                                                                                                                              *saṭṭa1 ʻ exchange ʼ. [Scarcely with LM 418 < sāˊrtha -- : cf. saṭṭayati2 ʻ gives (v.l. receives) ʼ Dhātup., ṣaṭṭayati2 ʻ gives ʼ lex., sanskritized as sattra -- n. ʻ wealth, gift ʼ]
                                                                                                                              Pk. saṭṭa -- ʻ exchanged ʼ, m. ʻ exchange ʼ, saṭṭī -- f., S. saṭo m.; P. saṭṭī f. ʻ exchange market ʼ; Ku. sã̄ṭo ʻ exchange ʼ, saṭoṇo ʻ to exchange, barter ʼ; N. sāṭo ʻ amends, revenge ʼ, sāṭnu ʻ to exchange ʼ; H. sāṭā m. ʻ exchange ʼ; G. sāṭũ n. ʻ bargain ʼ, sāṭvũ ʻ to make a bargain ʼ; M. sāṭṇē ʻ to buy up stock ʼ(CDIAL 13101).


                                                                                                                              kaṇṭu  n. < gaṇḍa  Bead or something like a pendant in an ornament for the neck; ஓர் ஆபரணவுரு. புல்லிகைக்கண்ட நாண் ஒன்றிற் கட்டின கண்டு ஒன்றும் (S.I.I. ii, 429). கண்டை² kaṇṭai , n. < T. kaṇḍe. Reel of a weaver's shuttle; நெசவுத்தாறு. கண்டு¹ kaṇṭu  n. < T. kaṇḍe. [K. kaṇḍikē.] Ball of thread; நூற்பந்து.Pa.kandi (pl. –l) necklace, beads. Ga. (P.) kandi (pl. –l) bead, (pl.) necklace; (S.2) kandiṭ bead (DEDR 1215). kandil, kandīl = a globe of glass, a lantern (Kannada) gaṇḍá1 m. ʻ goitre ʼ AitBr., ʻ boil ʼ Suśr.(CDIAL 3997). kaṇṭaiகண்டை , n. < ghaṇṭā Bell, large bell; பெரு மணி. (திவா.)  gaṇḍī f. ʻ gong ʼ, °ḍikā -- f. BHS ii 208. [Cf. ghaṇṭā -- ] Pa. gaṇḍī -- f., Si. geḍa (CDIAL 4005). కండ [ kaṇḍa ] kaṇḍa. [Tel.] n. A lump or piece of flesh or pulp.

                                                                                                                              Pa. gaṇḍa -- m. ʻ stalk ʼ, °ḍī -- f. ʻ sugarcane joint, shaft or stalk used as a bar ʼ, Pk. gaṁḍa -- m., °ḍiyā -- f.; Kt. gäṇa ʻ stem ʼ; Paš. lauṛ. gaṇḍīˊ ʻ stem, stump of a tree, large roof beam ʼ (→ Par. gaṇḍāˊ ʻ stem ʼ, Orm. goṇ ʻ stick ʼ IIFL i 253, 395), gul. geṇḍū, nir. gaṇīˊ, kuṛ. gã̄ṛo; Kal. urt. gəṇ ʻ log (in a wall) ʼ, rumb. goṇ (st. gōṇḍ -- ) ʻ handle ʼ, guṇḍík ʻ stick ʼ; Kho. (Lor.) gon, gonu, (Morgenstierne) gɔ̄ˋn ʻ haft of axe, spade or knife ʼ (or < ghaná -- 2?); K. gonḍu,  grọ̆nḍu m. ʻ great untrimmed log ʼ (CDIAL 3998) kã̄ḍकाँड् । काण्डः m. ‘the stalk or stem of a reed, grass, or the like, straw’ (Kashmiri)

                                                                                                                              Rebus: Ga. (Oll.) kanḍ, stone, (S.) kanḍu (pl. kanḍkil) id. (DEDR 1298). కండ్లు [ kaṇḍlu ] kaṇḍlu The plural of  of కల్లు a stone (Telugu)

                                                                                                                              Rebus: kaṇṭaiகண்டை  Warrior's ankle rings or bells; வீரக்கழல். Bi. gãṛās, °sā ʻ fodder cutter ʼ, °sī ʻ its blade ʼ; Bhoj. gãṛās ʻ a partic. iron instrument ʼ; H. gãṛāsī f., °sā m. ʻ knife for cutting fodder or sugarcane ʼ (→ P. gãḍāsā m. ʻ chopper for cutting fodder &c. ʼ).(CDIAL 4004). G.karã̄ n. pl. ‘wristlets, bangles’; S. karāī f. ’wrist’ (CDIAL 2779). 

                                                                                                                              S. Kalyanaraman
                                                                                                                              August 17, 2013

                                                                                                                              Lal Chowk -- Kanchan Gupta. Lal Chowk tiranga (Tricolor on Lal Chowk)-- Defining Rāṣṭram

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                                                                                                                              The task of preparing for the Yatra lay on Shri Narendra Modi’s shoulders keeping in mind his well established organizational skills; Putting his mind, organizational strength and sweat into the responsibility, he made elaborate arrangements in a very short span of time braving the huge risks that came with it. Without any fear, he visited every place that the Yatra would cover, meeting party workers. He galvanized and inspired party workers, created a patriotic fervor among them, thus laying the ground for the Yatra’s success. In this process he had not only shown that he was a master organizer but he had also exhibited the ability to deliver in any circumstances at a remarkable pace, a rare virtue in public life today.Shri Modi came across as a quick decision maker even in adverse circumstances and someone who had the ability to implement what he had decided.Shri Narendra Modi during Ekta Yatra The Ekta Yatra commenced on 11th December 1991, coinciding with the birth anniversary of Subramania Bharti and the ‘Balidan Diwas’ of Guru Tegh Bahadur. The prominent issues raised across the country were opposition to divisive and violent politics and an end to the menace of terror in Kashmir. Wherever he went, Shri Modi echoed the message of Shyama Prasad Mookerjee, saying that the unity of India came above everything else, and that he did not believe in different yardsticks for different sections of society. A fitting reply to anti-national elements was the need of the hour and when the time came, Shri Modi led from the front! The Ekta Yatra received rousing welcomes virtually wherever it went. Dr. Joshi stressed the need of national regeneration, which found an instant connect with the people of India. There couldn’t have been a better eye-opener for a blind Congress Government in Delhi than the Ekta Yatra. Needless to say, the success of the Yatra was a milestone for Shri Narendra Modi, whose organization skills proved invaluable as the Yatra progressed. Shri Modi himself urged the people of India to strike the death-knell of pseudo-secularism and votebank politics. An emotional Narendra Modi watched with joy as the tricolor was finally unfurled in Srinagar on 26th January 1992! The successful completion of this rare national mission amidst the most challenging circumstances was a tribute to Shri Modi’s ability to give effective replies to the anti-national elements with unparalleled courage, vision, skill as the power of Bharat Mata yet again demolished the folly of anti-India elements. - See more at: http://oyepages.com/blog/view/id/50a3efdc54c8812544000031#sthash.bjFzRpap.dpuf

                                                                                                                              http://oyepages.com/blog/view/id/50a3efdc54c8812544000031


                                                                                                                              In 1991-92, then BJP president Murli Manohar Joshi took out the Rashtriya Ekta Yatra from Kanyakumari to Srinagar. Defying a separatist writ, he hoisted the Tricolour on January 26, 1992, for the first time ever at Lal Chowk. The flag hosting ceremony lasted precisely 13 minutes. The P.V. Narasimha Rao-led government at the Centre provided security for the sensitive ceremony.
                                                                                                                              PHOTO: Mail Today
                                                                                                                              http://www.risingkashmir.in/news/lal-chowk-kashmirs-renaissance-hub-48585.aspx
                                                                                                                              http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-S6wycLTGeo
                                                                                                                              For 5 years, he unfurled the Tricolour at Lal ChowkManeesh Chhibber : Jammu, Wed Jan 26 2011, 01:34 hrs

                                                                                                                              Long before the BJP took up the Tiranga (Tricolour) to revive its fortunes and check its dwindling base, a little-known political activist from Jammu and his organisation made it a point to unfurl the national flag at Lal Chowk, in Srinagar, for five successive years.
                                                                                                                              "In 1994, two years after then BJP president Murli Manohar Joshi unfurled the national flag there on January 26, 1992, Pakistan-based militants dared Indians to unfurl the Tricolour at Lal Chowk. They also announced a reward of Rs 2 lakh to anyone who did so. We decided to take up the challenge and managed to do it," recalled Yogesh Gupta, chief of the J&K unit of the Akhil Bharatiya Shiv Sena.

                                                                                                                              While in 1992, Joshi, along with a handful of BJP leaders, was airlifted to Srinagar and unfurled the flag under tight security, Gupta and his "boys" played hide-and-seek with the security establishment to be able to carry out their "mission".

                                                                                                                              "The first time, we were around 3,500-4,000 Indians who were proceeding to Kashmir. We were stopped and detained at Udhampur — about 80 kms from Jammu. After we were released in the evening and told to go back to Jammu, I and six-seven other activists managed to sneak into Srinagar, and on January 26, at 12 noon, we reached Lal Chowk and started raising pro-India slogans. The shops were closed as the Valley was shut down on the call of the separatists. But, immediately after we hoisted the flag, we were bundled into cars and left near the Banihal Tunnel. When I returned to Jammu, I held a press conference to ask the militants to send me the reward money. While the money didn't come, I received death threats from the JKLF," he said.

                                                                                                                              He added, with considerable pride, that even the "BBC London" broadcast news of his "daring act" on January 26, 1994.

                                                                                                                              "Thereafter, every year, we repeated the job. Once, five or six of us simply caught the Indian Airlines flight to Srinagar for the purpose. But, it was never our intention to cause any rift between Hindus and Muslims. In fact, a lot of our members are Muslims. We once stayed at a Kashmiri Muslim family's house in Anantnag for two days before the D-Day. That it why I think, the BJP yatra is misguided," he said.

                                                                                                                              Gupta is not too enthused by the BJP youth wing's latest programme to unfurl the national flag at Lal Chowk. "While their (BJP) stand that since Kashmir is an integral territory of India, there shouldn't be any bar on hoisting the flag at Lal Chowk is correct, I am not sure what purpose will be achieved by doing so at this juncture when the state is trying to come out of the shadows of armed conflict. I think the BJP has made its point and should now accept the request of the state and central governments and give up the Yatra without precipitating matters," he said.

                                                                                                                              He added that successive governments in the state have failed to bring Kashmir closer to India. "Chief Minister Omar Abdullah is also playing partisan politics when he asks the BJP to give up its yatra. He is only trying to hide the failures of his government," he said.

                                                                                                                              Asked if he would "take up the challenge" of hoisting the flag at Lal Chowk again, he replied: "Maybe next year or the year after. Who knows?"

                                                                                                                              http://www.indianexpress.com/news/for-5-years-he-unfurled-the-tricolour-at-lal-chowk/742246/0

                                                                                                                              "1992: In 1990 there was an unsuccessful attempt by Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) to hoist the flag at Lal Chowk. Pakistan-sponsored separatists mocked that Indians sitting in Delhi cannot claim that Kashmir is a part of India. The BJP (the successor of the Jan Sangh) accepted the challenge and decided to take out a Yatra to Kashmir and unfurl the Tricolor there. That huge Ekta Yatra was led by Murli Manohar Joshi.

                                                                                                                              The Yatra started from Kanyakumari, the southernmost tip of mainland India, and travelled through Madhya Pradesh, UP, Haryana, Punjab. As the Ekta Yatra kept on progressing, people started to join in large numbers. Soon the number of Ekta Yatris rose so high that all the other parties like Congress, Communists, Janata Dal, Muslim League etc started getting uncomfortable.

                                                                                                                              There was huge pressure on the J&K government to stop the yatris from entering Srinagar. But the 50,000 yatris defied all threats from the separatists, bitter cold, snow and landslides and went on with their yatra. Many could not cross over as the path was blocked by heavy snow and landslides. Still many managed to reach Srinagar. Finally on 26th Jan 1992 the Tricolor was unfurled at Lal Chowk by Murli Manohar Joshi and Narendra Modi. Of course there was heavy security provided by the Indian Army. Amidst the slogans of Vande Mataram and Bharat Mata Ki Jai the Indian Tricolor was hoisted in the heart of Kashmir Valley." http://www.internationalopinion.com/id308.html
                                                                                                                              Uploaded on Jan 18, 2011
                                                                                                                              The BJP showed the courage to hoist the National Flag in Lal Chowk on January 26, 1992. And the Ekta Yatra of Murli Manohar Joshi began from Kanyakumari to Kashmir on December 11, 1991. The aim of the Yatra was to make people aware of the problem and awaken the Government about the gravity of the situation in Kashmir. Wherever the Yatra reached people thought themselves linked with the trouble in Kashmir.

                                                                                                                              LAL CHOWK TO LALAN COLLEGE, MODI MOCKS NEW DELHI

                                                                                                                              Sunday, 18 August 2013 | Kanchan Gupta | in Coffee Break
                                                                                                                              More eyes were trained on Lal Chowk than on Rajpath on Republic Day, 1992. On Independence Day, more people heard and watched Narendra Modi than who sat through Manmohan Singh’s whine from Red Fort
                                                                                                                              When Murli Manohar Joshi, then president of Bharatiya Janata Party, launched his Ekta Yatra from Kanyakumari on December 11, 1991, there was natural curiosity in the event. That curiosity metamorphosed into rousing passion as the yatra wound its way through the heartland and headed towards its final destination, Srinagar, where it was to conclude with the national Tricolour being unfurled at Lal Chowk on Republic Day. By mid-January, it had become a caravan of cars, jeeps and buses, with people spontaneously joining the yatra. The mood was festive and laced with eager anticipation: Hoisting the Tricolour at Lal Chowk had come to symbolise both national pride and sovereignty. Yet, there were questions and imponderables. Would the administration allow Joshi to proceed to Lal Chowk? Or would he be detained in Jammu? If he was indeed allowed to go up to Lal Chowk, would the jihadis and their separatist patrons, retaliate?
                                                                                                                              For those who came of age in this century and those who may have forgotten those terrible dark days, it would be in order to recall the anarchy that prevailed in the Kashmir Valley through the early-1990s. The Kashmiri Pandits, to the last man, woman and child, had been driven out of their homes in the land of their forefathers by Kalashnikov-toting jihadis who gave them two options: Leave or die. Overnight an entire community of Hindus had become refugees in their own country — and still remain so, their return made impossible by belligerent Muslims. That ethnic cleansing was, and remains, a blot on the collective conscience of the nation. Congress MP and UPA Minister Shashi Tharoor’s sly attempt to rewrite the history of that exodus may serve him well with his political bosses and the Muslim voters of Kerala, but it will not change facts as they then existed and still remain incontrovertible.
                                                                                                                              The jihadis had a free run of Kashmir valley and each day fetched increasingly depressing news of the State’s failure to halt their atrocities. Kashmir, it seemed, had been irrevocably lost, thanks to the machinations of the National Conference in Srinagar and an effete National Front Government headed by VP Singh in New Delhi. PV Narasimha Rao’s regime, which came to power in 1991, appeared to be more eager to appease the US (President Bill Clinton during his first term was aggressively pushing Pakistan’s case) and its special envoy Robin Raphel, who was a junior functionary in the State Department but wielded tremendous clout, than taking on the separatists. The future looked bleak.
                                                                                                                              It was against this backdrop that the idea of hoisting the Tricolour at Lal Chowk, a regular practice that had been discarded after separatists began hoisting Pakistan’s flag on the Clock Tower, caught the popular imagination of Indians across the country. By the time the yatra reached Jammu, it had gathered in its wake more than 50,000 people. Unfortunately, heavy snowfall and landslides prevented their onward march with the Jammu-Srinagar highway blocked. That did not deter Joshi. He was taken in a helicopter to Srinagar and on January 26, the Tricolour was hoisted at Lal Chowk. On that Republic Day, I had written in this newspaper, more eyes were on Lal Chowk in Srinagar than on Rajpath in Delhi: India wanted to see the Tricolour flutter tall and proud in the heart of jihad-infested Kashmir. There were few or no tools to test that assertion. Fortunately, there are tools available now, but we shall come to that later.
                                                                                                                              In its own way, Joshi raising the Tricolour at Lal Chowk was an audacious act, unprecedented and unexpected — among Delhi’s chattering classes and the political elite whose members, to borrow Minister for External Affairs Salman Khurshid’s expression, were and continue to remain proverbial frogs in the well. On that occasion too we had heard scathing criticism of Joshi for trying to snatch attention away from the main Republic Day event on Rajpath, as we now hear of Narendra Modi, the BJP’s putative Prime Ministerial candidate, for daring to deliver an Independence Day speech contesting the bunkum heard from the ramparts of Red Fort where Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had, in his whining voice, read out a dhobi list of bogus achievements and promises earlier that morning. The other reason I have mentioned the Ekta Yatra in some detail is because it was conceived, planned and organised by Narendra Modi, then a mere party functionary. Being audacious and challenging convention, it can be said with some certitude, is not something new for him; he has done it more than once and with great style.
                                                                                                                              As on January 26, 1992, I would argue that on August 15, 2013, all eyes — and ears — were trained on Lalan College in Bhuj and not Lal Qila in Old Delhi. In other words, more people watched and heard Narendra Modi than they did Manmohan Singh. If the Prime Minister had whined, his challenger had roared in response; as a contest, it was a non-starter. But what it served to achieve was to shake up the Delhi establishment and send tremors through Delhi’s entrenched fraudulent Left-liberal elite. The epicentre of those tremors was Bhuj. Never before had an outsider smashed through the make-believe barrier, the imaginary Delhi Gate that protects the Establishment and its hold over power, in so rude a manner. Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad calling Narendra Modi “Gangu Teli” is more than a deplorable casteist slur; it’s a reflection of the fear that now grips the establishment and the elite. On the other hand, the huge unwashed masses are elated — delighted that Modi has hit Congress and its stooges where it hurts the most.
                                                                                                                              Fortunately, there now exist tools, as I mentioned earlier, to gauge popular opinion. The Internet is a great leveller and facilitator for this purpose. India Today ran a poll:
                                                                                                                              ‘Independence Day speech: Manmohan vs Modi — Who do you think gave a better speech?’
                                                                                                                              In all fairness, India Today listed the points made by each of them, and in some detail too. It then asked readers to vote for either Manmohan Singh or Narendra Modi. On Saturday evening, the results were: Narendra Modi 92 per cent; Manmohan Singh eight per cent. Well, I did say, as a contest, it was a non-starter. Yet the significance of these numbers can be minimised by the Congress and its apologists only at their own expense.
                                                                                                                              (The writer is a senior journalist based in Delhi)
                                                                                                                              http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/coffee-break/lal-chowk-to-lalan-college-modi-mocks-new-delhi.html

                                                                                                                              BJP youth wing on their Ekta Yatra at the Punjab border

                                                                                                                              Airlifted Hindu Nationalists Fly India's Flag in Kashmir

                                                                                                                              By EDWARD A. GARGAN
                                                                                                                              Published: January 27, 1992

                                                                                                                              India's most prominent Hindu nationalist politician carried the nation's flag into the central square of Kashmir's capital today in a defiant gesture of Indian domination of the rebellious, predominantly Muslim region.
                                                                                                                              Explosions and gunfire echoed through Srinagar's streets, which were barren except for tens of thousands of police and soldiers sent to protect the Hindu leader, Murli Manohar Joshi.
                                                                                                                              For two years, militant Kashmiri separatists have waged a full-scale guerrilla war to drive Indian troops and officials from the Vale of Kashmir, a war that has cost the lives of thousands of civilians, guerrillas and members of the security forces.
                                                                                                                              The army and police imposed an around-the-clock curfew for the last two days on towns and villages throughout the valley and have banned all civilian vehicle traffic. Guerrillas have attacked army patrols and fixed positions by night and by day. Weapons Fire Heard All Day
                                                                                                                              All day today, weapons fire was heard throughout Srinagar. There were reports that at least 20 people were killed by late evening, including 3 members of the security forces.
                                                                                                                              The status of Kashmir has been disputed since India and Pakistan became independent nations in 1947, with both countries claiming sovereignty. Each now controls part of the region, with China occupying an adjacent sector. India's efforts to suppress the rebellion have been frequently criticized by international human rights groups, which cite hundreds of instances of torture and murder of suspected militants at the hands of security officials.
                                                                                                                              Repeatedly in recent weeks, the major rebel groups here have threatened to prevent Mr. Joshi, the president of India's largest opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, from traveling to Srinagar with thousands of his followers.
                                                                                                                              On Friday, rebels detonated a bomb in the office of Kashmir's senior police official, gravely wounding five of the region's top security officials. The attack came as Mr. Joshi declared that he would not be deterred from leading a caravan of thousands of supporters into the valley to show the Indian flag on the nation's Republic Day. Security for Convoy Impossible
                                                                                                                              He had begun his trek, which he named Pilgrimage for Unity, 44 days before at India's southernmost point. But the inability of the security forces to protect even their highest officials made it clear that there was no way, despite the presence of several hundred thousand troops in the Vale of Kashmir, to protect a convoy of cars and buses filled with zealous Hindus. So Mr. Joshi and a small contingent of his closest supporters were flown here on Saturday night.
                                                                                                                              By daybreak the army had erected a 15-foot-high makeshift white flagpole on a low dais in the center of the city's central square, Lal Chowk, and covered it with orange, brown and red Kashmiri carpets. At the flagpole's tip, a tightly folded Indian flag dangled from a halyard.
                                                                                                                              Then, less than an hour before Mr. Joshi was due to arrive, there were two thunderous explosions, which the army said appeared to be detonations of rockets fired by guerrilla groups.
                                                                                                                              Suddenly, two olive-drab army buses lumbered into the square, which was empty except for soldiers and a small crowd of journalists. About 70 of Mr. Joshi's supporters stepped gingerly from the buses, uneasily eyeing the huge military presence.
                                                                                                                              Four white sedans sped into the square, and Mr. Joshi, in a traditional Kashmiri feran, or woolen cape, and saffron scarf, hurried toward the flagpole. He began waving an Indian flag, which he tried to mount on a collapsible flagpole that a supporter supplied. But as followers pushed to get close, the pole broke in several places and the flag tumbled down onto Mr. Joshi. National Anthem Is Sung.
                                                                                                                              http://freepresskashmir.com/army-protects-indian-flag-raising-in-kashmir/
                                                                                                                              "With Kashmiris locked inside their homes, Joshi hoisted the flag in the company of soldiers. He had to be whisked away in haste when a rocket fired by militants landed some metres away from the tower."  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lal_Chowk

                                                                                                                              A 'minor' symbol of nationalism in Srinagar

                                                                                                                              The clock tower at Lal Chowk, in the heart of Srinagar, has apparently no significance for Kashmiris. The tower is in a dilapidated condition, the clock has stopped functioning long back, and people pass by even without noticing it.
                                                                                                                              Hoisting the Tricolour at Lal Chowk evoked protests
                                                                                                                              However, it's the competing political ideologies in Kashmir, and even from outside the Valley, that have turned this tower into a " great political symbol". The announcement by the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha, the BJP's youth wing, that it will hoist the Tricolour at Lal Chowk on the Republic Day and the quick response by separatist leader Yasin Malik to resist the move have brought back to focus, the significance of the square. In fact, any organisation that announces hoisting a flag at Lal Chowk ends up unfurling it on the clock tower. Lal Chowk, a business hub, is named after the central marketplace in Moscow - Red Square. Local historians say it was some enthusiastic communists who thought up the name after Lenin seized power in Moscow in 1917. They say Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah, an admirer of socialism, gave the square the name Lal Chowk.
                                                                                                                              In 1980, Bajaj Electricals raised the clock tower in the middle of Lal Chowk. "It served as an advertisement for Bajaj in Srinagar," Farooq Ahmad Shah, director- tourism, said.
                                                                                                                              He said that for years it was not renovated. Now the state government has started renovation work on the tower. "We want to repair it on the lines of traditional Kashmiri architecture," Shah said.
                                                                                                                              Flag hoisting at Lal Chowk began at the height of militancy in the state in 1991 when BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi took BJP youth wing to hoist Tricolour at Lal Chowk
                                                                                                                              In 1980, Bajaj Electricals raised the clock tower in the middle of Lal Chowk. "It served as an advertisement for Bajaj in Srinagar," Farooq Ahmad Shah, director- tourism, said.
                                                                                                                              He said that for years it was not renovated. Now the state government has started renovation work on the tower. "We want to repair it on the lines of traditional Kashmiri architecture," Shah said.
                                                                                                                              Flag hoisting at Lal Chowk began at the height of militancy in the state in 1991 when BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi took out the ' Ekta Yatra' from Kanyakumari to Srinagar, ostensibly to symbolise India's assertion in an area where Pakistani flags were seen as a grim reminder of separatists' defiance.
                                                                                                                              The announcement brought militant groups together. And the day the Tricolour was unfurled on the tower, thousands of bullets were fired in the air by militants across the Valley to express resentment. Joshi had to hoist the flag in a haste, as a rocket landed metres from the tower.
                                                                                                                              For the past two years, even the CRPF has not unfurled the flag on the bunker about 200 metres away from Lal Chowk.
                                                                                                                              On June 27, 2008, when Kashmir erupted against the transfer of forest land to the Amarnath shrine board, thousands of people hoisted scores of green flags on the tower.
                                                                                                                              Mainstream political parties, including the National Conference and the People's Democratic Party, use the tower to address political gatherings. Early this month, PDP president Mehbooba Mufti addressed a rally near the tower to criticise the government over frequent power failures.
                                                                                                                              "Lal Chowk has been historically important right from 1947. Sheikh Muhammad Abdullah and the first prime minister of India Jawaharlal Nehru gave several significant speeches here," said Prof. Gul Muhammad Wani, who teaches political science in Kashmir University. He, however, pointed out that it was Joshi who turned the tower into a " political symbol" by hoisting the national flag on it in 1991.
                                                                                                                              He termed the Yuva Morcha's latest move a political gimmick. "The BJP has lost two successive elections and now they want to build the party on emotional and corruption- related issues," he added.
                                                                                                                              A TOWER OF CONTENTION
                                                                                                                              • Lal Chowk, a business hub in Kashmir's summer capital, is named after the central marketplace in Moscow - Red Square
                                                                                                                              • 1n 1980, Bajaj Electricals raised the clock tower at Lal Chowk. It served as an advertisement for the company
                                                                                                                              • Flag hoisting at Lal Chowk started at the height of militancy in the state in 1991 by BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi
                                                                                                                              • The state government is renovating the dilapidated clock tower in traditional Kashmiri architecture
                                                                                                                              http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/clock-tower-at-lal-chowk-srinagar/1/127035.html
                                                                                                                              Indian Flag at Lal Chowk, Srinagar?

                                                                                                                              IssueNet Edition| Date : 25 Jan , 2011

                                                                                                                              The ongoing march by a political party to raise the national flag in Sri Nagar is being dubbed as politically motivated by its detractors. It indeed is a move for political mobilization for ostensibly a matter of national pride. But in a democracy, is there any movement or any endeavour by any political party, which does not factor political gains and losses. Political parties nevertheless try to mobilize people within the known parameters of their respective ideologies.
                                                                                                                              It is perfectly legitimate. Political parties do not exist only to fight elections.
                                                                                                                              Which sensitivities of Kashmiris are some people talking about? Is it nationalistic sensitivity or anti-national sensitivity?
                                                                                                                              This is not the first time that national security issues are being politicized. It has happened even with respect of Kargil Diwas and Vijay Diwas. There is no political unanimity in tackling the Maoist problem.
                                                                                                                              The moot question is as to why otherwise an innocuous endeavour to hoist national flag at Lal Chawk at Srinagar on the Republic Day has become such an explosive issue? Why has it become a controversy? The same controversy was courted by the same political party when it had made a similar move in the year 1992.
                                                                                                                              It is a stark reminder that the security situation in Kashmir has not changed in the last two decades. The religious discourse has also not changed. The security situation has been allowed to rather deteriorate to a level when the state has to employ massive machinery to abort the so called ‘Ekta Yatra’. It is indecisive and subverted politics over the years that are responsible for this situation.
                                                                                                                              It clearly reflects the level of threat posed by the anti-India and pro-Pak constituency in Kashmir. It indicates that there are elements in the separatist leadership of Kashmir, who cannot breakaway from the shackles of the Pakistan military-intelligence establishment. The area of Lal Chawk has been traditionally symbolic of this threat for the last few years. It is for this reason that the concerned political party has embarked on this symbolic yatra. Leave alone any Indian, if a Kashmiri Muslim or a Kashmiri Pandit wants to hoist the flag at Lal Chawk, who is Yaseen Malik to stop them? If he does, he should be charged for sedition.
                                                                                                                              The General must realize that the security discourse of this country is mainly dictated by politics. It is a reality and there is no escaping the fact.
                                                                                                                              In a television debate, a former Chief of Army Staff tried to describe the whole issue as politically motivated. The General must realize that the security discourse of this country is mainly dictated by politics. It is a reality and there is no escaping the fact. Contrary to what he said, the morale of the troops does get affected when Pakistani flags are hoisted and the Indian National Flag is trampled upon. Which sensitivities of Kashmiris are some people talking about? Is it nationalistic sensitivity or anti-national sensitivity? Is it Kashmiri sensitivity or sensitivity of J&K? Is it pro-unity sensitivity or anti-unity sensitivity? Is Kashmiri sensitivity restricted to the 18 percent area of J&K?
                                                                                                                              How much more time, money and lives it will take to address the sensitivity of anti-India constituency in Kashmir? If this constituency is in minority in Kashmir then why are the central government and the state government so apprehensive?
                                                                                                                              The brave and matured men of the Indian Army have been witness to this insult for so many years. They have been sacrificing their lives for a solution to the problem. Left to the military, the problem would have been solved long time back, but the vicious politics of Kashmir and ensured that it did not happen. All governments in the Center have been hostage to Kashmiri politicians, some of whom draw their inspiration and sustenance from powers bent upon derailing the Indian story.
                                                                                                                              The military therefore cannot solve an internal problem without demanding the appropriate political support and decisions. It can be done, once it categorically conveys to the political masters that military personnel are not expendable and that they fight for objectives within a given time-frame.
                                                                                                                              Till then, the country is doomed to bleed with no end in sight and security will continue to be sacrificed at altar of politics.

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                                                                                                                              About the Author



                                                                                                                              RSN Singh
                                                                                                                              RSN Singh is a former military intelligence officer who later served in the Research and Analysis Wing, or R&AW and author of  books Asian Strategic and Military Perspective and The Military Factor in Pakistan. His latest book is The Unmaking of Nepal.

                                                                                                                              http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/indian-flag-at-lal-chowk-srinagar/

                                                                                                                              KASHMIR’S RED SQUARE




                                                                                                                              As the BJP’s flag hoisting plan brings back memories of its previous venture in 1992, Haroon Mirani recounts the history of Lal Chowk, which has remained a centre of political upheavals in Kashmir.

                                                                                                                              Jan 26, 1992:Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) leader Murli Manohar Joshi unfurls tricolour at the Ghanta Ghar, amid heavy security in Lal Chowk, Srinagar’s main square. Sounds of gunfire and blasts, carried out by militants, rock the city. BJP trumpeted victory, as if it had won Kashmir for India by its move.
                                                                                                                              August 15, 2008: The paramilitary CRPF hoisted the tricolour at Ghanta Ghar (clock tower) in the morning, which by now had become a routine for the paramilitary group in charge of Srinagar. But for a change, the CRPF takes off the flag soon after unfurling ceremony. In the evening a group of protestors, chanting pro-freedom slogans, assemble at the venue and hoist a green flag, triggering  panic in New Delhi.
                                                                                                                              Jan 26, 2009: CRPF stops its practise of flag hoisting at Ghanta Ghar on republic and independence days.
                                                                                                                              Jan 2011: BJP has embarked on an “ekta yarta” with an aim to hoist tricolour in Lal Chowk on January 26 again. The state government is opposing the move calling it a provocation. Separatist group JKLF has dared the BJP to go ahead with its plan and called for a Lal Chowk march on the day. The drama is unfolding, as January 26 approaches.
                                                                                                                              Standing in the centre of Kashmir’s Red Square – Lal Chowk-, Ghanta Ghar may not be a historical structure. Nor can it be described as “tall” by any standards. But lately, it has become a centrepiece of jingoist nationalist politics over Kashmir, especially ever since the BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi hoisted an Indian flag on it in 1992.
                                                                                                                              If the paramilitary groups enthuse pride in a parallel flag hoisting ceremony (the official state function takes place at Bakshi Stadium) at the tower, large pro-freedom crowds have cheered at people hoisting green flags (or of any separatist group) on the structure in recent years. Jubilant crowds trumpet victory, as if they have snatched Kashmir from India.
                                                                                                                              Hoisting a flag at Lal Chowk doesn’t change the status of Jammu and Kashmir, but nobody misses the political statement the act makes.
                                                                                                                              In 2008, when entire Kashmir had erupted in a surprise mass agitation, the government was grappling to contain pro-freedom protests. While brute force was being used to tame people, security agencies made it a priority to secure just one place – Lal Chowk.
                                                                                                                              The city centre doesn’t comprise of any seat of power, but still the small square was thought to be too dangerous to be left unguarded. Multiple barricades of concertina wire and tin sheets were erected on all sides of Lal Chowk. The clock tower was secured by tin sheets, razor wire, and a tight file of police and paramilitary men. Thousands of troopers thwarted any human movement towards Lal Chowk, as if people were not to come for a simple rally, but to occupy the place.
                                                                                                                              In the last three years, the clock tower has seen more flags hoisted on it than the years of its existence. Sources say the renovation of Ghanta Ghar in 2010, was designed to prevent any defiant flag bearer to get to the top. But, as it turned out, that was not to be. In September, when Mirwiaz Umar Farooq lead a march on Eid-ul-Fitr from Eidgah to Lal Chowk and addressed people at the venue along with JKLF leader Yasin Malik, scores of flags representing almost every other Kashmiri separatist group saw its way to the tower top.
                                                                                                                              It may be nothing more than a battle of wits, but the emphasis both sides (state and separatists) give it, provides it enough political weight.
                                                                                                                              Kashmir has just been through one of its hottest political summers. Echoes of freedom have made headlines around the world. Rightwing Hindu nationalist groups are blaming the Congress-led government in New Delhi for giving in to separatist pressure.
                                                                                                                              It is in this context that the BJP has launched its ekta yatra or national unity march. On January 12, BJP president Nitin Gadkari flagged off the march from Kolkata by handing over a tricolour to Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha (BJYM) president Anurag Thakur.
                                                                                                                              The yatra, on a bus converted to look like a chariot used by Hindu warriors of yore, will pass through 11 states before reaching Lal Chowk on Jan 26.
                                                                                                                              “This is very unfortunate that after 63 years of independence we need to go to Kashmir for hoisting a flag. Lakhs of Kashmiri Pandits have been evicted from Kashmir. Congress is only interested in vote bank politics,” Gadkari said after launching the yatra.
                                                                                                                              “The problem of Kashmir is because of the appeasement policies of the Congress. Why is it that this government doesn’t have the courage to say no to ‘azaadi’ (freedom) …Kashmir is an integral part of India and it will remain so,” Gadkari said.
                                                                                                                              Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and his father Farooq Abdullah have already criticised the BJP for the march, describing it as a provocation.
                                                                                                                              “When Kashmir is now quiet, they want to set it on fire again. The BJP leadership will be wholly and solely responsible for any consequences,” the chief minister said.
                                                                                                                              State Congress has joined in, opposing the BJP plan. So have the separatists.
                                                                                                                              Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front leader Yasin Malik said his party would prevent the flag hoisting. Malik also called for a Lal Chowk march on the day. Hurriyat (M) has supported the call.
                                                                                                                              Nineteen years ago, when militancy in Kashmir was at its peak, BJP had launched a similar march. Militant groups threatened to attack the march in Kashmir. While the procession coming by road was stopped in Jammu as the state government announced the closure of highway to Srinagar, because of “landslides”, Murli Manohar Joshi flew to curfewed Srinagar. He hoisted the flag at Lal Chowk secured by a heavy contingent of police and troops. Gunfire boomed and a few rockets fired by militants fell nearby. But Joshi declared victory.
                                                                                                                              “At that point of time many secular commentators said that it amounted to declaring ideological war on Kashmir,” said Prof Gul Wani who had been following the events closely. “It was symbolism of exhibition of might of Indian state because Joshi was surrounded by security forces.”
                                                                                                                              After 1992 it was a routine for troopers stationed at Lal Chowk to unfurl the flag.
                                                                                                                              The state government is worried that the BJP’s fresh move will add to the tension in the volatile valley.  But for now it seems nothing is going to stop the BJP, except if the state is firm on not letting their workers enter the valley, or at least Lal Chowk.
                                                                                                                              In contemporary history of Kashmir, Lal Chowk has witnessed love, betrayal, passion, drama and destruction.
                                                                                                                              Lal Chowk’s history is rooted in a bloody revolution thousands of kilometres away in Russia.
                                                                                                                              Lal Chowk is the living example of communist influence on Kashmir’s political landscape and freedom struggle before 1947.
                                                                                                                              “The 1917 Russian revolution had profound effect on entire South Asia and Kashmir was not immune to it,” said Prof Wani. “The conditions of Russia and Kashmir were similar at that time – exploitative King, aristocracy, feudalism, agrarian crisis and peasant class.”
                                                                                                                              In a fit of excitement the young communist supporters of Kashmir named the square in city centre as Lal Chowk, the Urdu equivalent of Moscow’s Red Square. As the ideology of freeing people from exploitation appealed to masses, nobody objected to it and the name stuck.
                                                                                                                              After that Lal Chowk became the epicentre of politico, social, cultural and economic movements of Kashmir. By 1947 its position was firmly established, despite the fact that the then Maharaja and aristocracy usually avoided Lal Chowk. Their palace and seat of governance was established on the other side of river Jhelum.
                                                                                                                              A communist study circle not far away from Lal Chowk was also founded where the people associated with this ideology would sit, read and discuss.
                                                                                                                              Prof Wani says that communism had a profound impact on Kashmir’s political landscape at that time. “Even the Naya Kashmir manifesto of 1944 forwarded by National Conference was handiwork of certain communist leaders,” said Wani. “People like G M Sadiq, Girdhari Lal Dogra and Peer Gayasudin were heavily influenced by these communist leaders and they were instrumental in bringing communist influence in NC.”
                                                                                                                              According to Andrew Whitehead, author of Mission in Kashmir, “The contents of the document (Naya Kashmir) were largely translated from a Soviet Central Asian publication. The only section which had to be written afresh was Sheikh Abdullah’s introduction.”
                                                                                                                              1947
                                                                                                                              Lal Chowk played its role in shaping the history of the subcontinent in 1947.
                                                                                                                              As the tribals raided Kashmir in 1947, Kashmir’s future was determined in the lanes of Lal Chowk.
                                                                                                                              “The environs everywhere were tense and tribals were heading towards Srinagar,” recalls Mohammed Shafi Shehri, 83, perhaps the oldest surviving shopkeeper at Lal Chowk. “The National Conference in order to block their advance selected Maqbool Sherwani for the job.”
                                                                                                                              Sherwani, according to Shehri, was taught for a couple of hours to ride a scooter. “Then he was dressed in an Achkan (long coat) and trouser of the father of a local NC leader to give him a respectable look,” said Shehri. “He was directed to meet them midway, provide them wrong information and thus save Srinagar and the airport.”
                                                                                                                              Sherwani did the job perfectly as he misled the raiders by coaxing them about a short cut to the airport. “They couldn’t reach airport, but Indian army did and rest is the history,” said Shehri. “The raiders came to know about the truth of Sherwani, but it was too late. He was done a painful death.”
                                                                                                                              Shehri is one of the few people who saw first group of Indian army, who landed in Kashmir. “They were tall Sikhs chanting religious slogans, ready to fight,” said Shehri.
                                                                                                                              There was a large square in front of Palladium cinema, which was used for political rallies. After the first Indo-Pak war ended, Sheikh Abdullah addressed the people at this place. “They had captured two raiders and they were shown to people from the window of Punjab Muslim hotel,” said Shehri. “These are the enemies who attacked us and took the Samovar handles, roared Sheikh.”
                                                                                                                              For most of the people this was the first time they had seen the raiding tribals and they tipped over each other to have a closer look of the captured raiders.    
                                                                                                                              As people were going through an ideological struggle for determining their future, India’s first prime minister Jawahar Lal Nehru made his bit to woo Kashmir by delivering his famous speech at Lal Chowk. Nehru promised people of a future where they will be free to choose their destiny.
                                                                                                                              “We have only come to help Kashmir, to throw infiltrators out and once peace is restored, the Indian army will leave,” said Nehru to a record gathering any prime minister of India has managed to attract till date in Kashmir. According to experts, the unfulfilling of that promise, heard with lots of expectations, became the starting point of alienation, which turned into hatred and confrontation as it passed on to future generations.
                                                                                                                              Sheikh Abdullah went a bit further while translating the words of Nehru. Abdullah recited a Persian poem, “Man tu shudam, tu man shudi; Taakas nagoyed baad azi, man degeram tu degeri (I became you and you became I; so none could say you are separate from me).”
                                                                                                                              At that time Kashmir had very few vehicles. “Just three vehicles used to ferry passengers to Rawalpindi via the Jhelum valley road,” said Shehri. “Local transport was either tongas or people preferred walking on foot due to poverty.”
                                                                                                                              Shehri himself used to come to his shop in Lal Chowk regularly on foot for over forty years from his residence in downtown area. He described it as a secret behind his good health at this advanced age.
                                                                                                                              US based Foreign affairs magazine once described Lal Chowk as the most volatile bazaar in the most volatile city in India’s most volatile state.
                                                                                                                              Contemporary history of Kashmir started right from Lal Chowk. The Emergency administration of Jammu and Kashmir took over on 31st of October 1947. Its operational office was set up in Palladium Cinema in Lal Chowk, while the formal offices were in Old Secretariat.
                                                                                                                              The present day Palladium cinema was also for some time the office of National Conference.
                                                                                                                              “Even the plebiscite Front activities were carried out from certain hotels in Lal Chowk which belonged to the influential workers of the front,” said Wani.
                                                                                                                              Lal Chowk has also been the epicentre of political feuds particularly between National Conference and the Awami Action committee popularly known as Sher-Bakra fight. “There were some businessmen and hoteliers belonging to downtown area and they were always at the receiving end of some NC workers,” said Shehri.
                                                                                                                              Professor Wani terms Lal Chowk as the nerve centre for Kashmir. “It has assumed centrality for Kashmir in every way,” said Wani. “We can compare it with Red Square of Moscow, Times Square of the U.S. or Tiananmen square of China in their importance for their respective regions.”
                                                                                                                              Lal Chowk has come up to its billing as Kashmir’s political nerve centre. The 1975 Indira-Abdullah Accord, regarded by many as another watershed in Kashmir’s politics, was announced from Lal Chowk by Sheikh Abdullah.
                                                                                                                              In the run up to the accord Lal Chowk remained the centre of marathon public meetings, wherein Sheikh Abdullah did his best to bring people around to his viewpoint. “In these meetings he explained the contents and the context of the accord to the people and told them the circumstances in which this accord was happening,” said Wani.
                                                                                                                              Shehri remembers an incident, when Abdullah was to go to New Delhi to sign the accord. Shehri’s friend, a local baker, known as Noor Daba who was a staunch nationalist, was perturbed by the Abdullah’s “changing attitude”. He single-handedly dared to confront Abdullah at Lal Chowk when the latter was leaving for New Delhi to sign the accord.
                                                                                                                              “When Sheikh Abdullah had boarded his car, Noor Daba blocked his way with a vermillion mark on his forehead,” said Shehri. “He told Sheikh, you have decided to sell Kashmir, but sell it without me.”
                                                                                                                              Everybody was surprised, Shehri says, “It was a long time before people understood what Noor was trying to convey.”
                                                                                                                              A decade later people coming out of a theatre would bring down a large billboard with Shiekh’s picture in Lal Chowk. That marked the end of NC’s hold on the city’s main square. The Mustapha Akkad’s movie Lion of the Desert, many political scientists believe stoked a rebellion where people especially youth began to draw parallels between Abdullah and Omar Mukhtar and were disappointed.
                                                                                                                              National Conference had got a rousing welcome in Kashmir even after the infamous 1975 Accord
                                                                                                                              Army raids Lal Chowk
                                                                                                                              One of the turning points in Army-civilian relations in Kashmir was the army’s vandal raid at Lal Chowk on July 26, 1980. That day, a large army contingent attacked Lal Chowk; vandalising shops, looting, and beating people. Earlier there was a scuffle between some civilians and an army driver, who had hit a civilian vehicle at Tourist Reception Centre.
                                                                                                                              Taking it as an insult, a large contingent of army men returned and assaulted people in Lal Chowk.
                                                                                                                              “That was a terrible time …everybody was taken unawares,” said Shehri.
                                                                                                                              Students, bystanders, businessmen, anyone they could lay hands on was mercilessly thrashed. When police tried to intervene, they too were beaten to pulp.
                                                                                                                              The then Superintendent of Police, Ali Muhammad Watali and a police officer, Javed Makhdoomi were hospitalised following the thrashing. Some people allege that the army had brought petrol to set fire to Lal Chowk.
                                                                                                                              “Prior to that incident army troopers and officers used to visit Lal Chowk for shopping and it was good business,” said Shehri. “But all that changed after the incident as Lal Chowk became out of bounds for Army.”
                                                                                                                              The army men’s action angered the people.
                                                                                                                              Next day, Sheikh Abdullah hurriedly addressed people at Lal Chowk, condemned the incident and announced compensation for damaged property. A Court of Inquiry was also ordered, but it never saw the light of it day.  
                                                                                                                              The pain
                                                                                                                              On July 31, 1988, two bomb blasts rocked Srinagar, one outside the telegraph office, and the other near the golf course, announcing the start of armed insurgency in Kashmir. In the next two decades Lal Chowk witnessed scores of gun battles and hundreds of grenade attacks.
                                                                                                                              “We had never seen or even imagined such time,” said Shehri.
                                                                                                                              A footwear trader at Lal Chowk Aftab Ahmad remembers how Lal Chowk used to buzz with people even after midnight. He says, shopkeepers would leave Lal Chowk after 1 am, when the last show at Palladium cinema would end.
                                                                                                                              “Transport was readily available and there was sense of security,” said Aftab. “Business too was good as Lal Chowk was a must shop site for tourists as well as locals.”
                                                                                                                              The biggest incident to impact Lal Chowk was the arson of 1993. On April 10, 1993, a BSF party in retaliation of burning of their abandoned building, allegedly set fire to Lal Chowk. “That was terrible. So many lives too were lost and property and goods worth crores were razed,” said Aftab, who with his father and locals at Koker Bazar salvaged whatever they could, from the fire.
                                                                                                                              The Human Rights Watch report of 1993, records that as people attempted to flee the burning buildings, they found that the doors bolted from the outside.
                                                                                                                              “Jammu & Kashmir police officers reported BSF commanders forbade them from helping the trapped civilians escape, saying ‘let them burn’, and even fired on them as they attempted to rescue trapped civilians,” said the report.
                                                                                                                              Many lives were lost inthe blaze and BSF firing.
                                                                                                                              BSF troopers also fired on people fleeing in Shikaras. At least 16 bodies were later recovered from the river.
                                                                                                                              The gutted Palladium cinema remains the mark of that arson, even as other buildings were rebuilt.
                                                                                                                              The fire destroyed 59 homes, 190 shops, two office buildings, five commercial buildings, two schools, and a shrine.
                                                                                                                              Lal Chowk has seen too much destruction, Shehri says, and 1993 arson was just one big incident.
                                                                                                                              Symbol of resistance
                                                                                                                              Lal Chowk which for decades has been a trading hub and political nerve centre of Kashmir is also the centre of resistance and protests. From SRTC employees demanding their wages to secessionist demonstrations, everybody wants to make it to Lal Chowk.
                                                                                                                              Political scientists say that the square has assumed a centrality in the imagination of Kashmiris.

                                                                                                                              Moreover from 1990, the images of crackdowns and shutdowns in Kashmir flashed to the outside world are mostly captured in Lal Chowk.
                                                                                                                              “Being a media hub has only added to its importance,” says Prof. Wani.
                                                                                                                              The government is also aware of the political significance of the city’s main square. Whenever separatists call for a march to or demonstration at Lal Chowk the government clamps curfew or restrictions.
                                                                                                                              Lal Chowk has a high impact value for any incident, which makes it more prone to violent attacks as it makes to the headlines world over.
                                                                                                                              Off late, the square has been renovated, which some think is the death of Lal Chowk. “The meaning of square is to have large open space with nothing in it and the government has literally destroyed that idea by building an unnecessary park on it,” said Ajaz Rasool. “It is the end of this famous square.”
                                                                                                                              Lal Chowk is silently witnessing its own transformation, with the distinction of having a clock tower which never shows the time right, perhaps reflecting the bad times Kashmir is living in.  
                                                                                                                              Sheikh Abdullah’s numerous speeches at the square were, Prof Wani says, aimed at raising the political consciousness of the people and instilling a distinct nationality in them besides problems with New Delhi or Pakistan or between the two countries were continuously raised and debated from its podiums “Lal Chowk represents the turbulence of Kashmir politics and political instability of Kashmir,” says Prof Wani
                                                                                                                              The BJP’s endeavour to unfurl tricolour at Lal Chowk on January 26 is bound to rake up nationalistic passions throughout India, signalling Lal Chowk has grown too big even outside the confines of Kashmir and impacts the lives of more than a billion people.
                                                                                                                              http://www.kashmirlife.net/kashmirs-red-square/



                                                                                                                              Lal Chowk Today, Lal Qila Tomorrow


                                                                                                                              Last year after stopping short of declaring that Kashmir was no longer part of India–”autonomy,” “self-determination” and all the other good things–our Prime Minister curiously stopped pursuing the line. And now Lal Chowk has happened. Expectedly, Our Leader in the Blue Turban has mouthed the usual platitudes: “hoisting the Indian flag in Lal Chowk will arouse divisive tendencies,” “people should not get worked up,” “this is a deep-rooted conspiracy hatched by the Opposition,” etc. In effect, peace at any cost. After all, it was his party that the Apostle of Peace and Non-Violence belonged to. Chauri Chaura, Khilafat Movement, Jinnah, the Partition, and Peace. Let’s not blame poor Manmohan Singh.
                                                                                                                              But let’s look at what a national flag is. A piece of cloth, paper, and canvas upon which is painted some nice colors, which makes it look attractive. And so it should make perfect sense to agree with the Congress party worthies that the truckload of BJP supporters and other nationalist-minded people are creating a fuss over nothing, really.
                                                                                                                              But the law of the land provides for a Flag Code of India that lays down elaborate guidelines on how, where, when, and who should hoist the Indian national flag. It also stipulates severe punishment for violating the code. What is interesting is that the National Flag is governed by the provisions of the Emblems and Names (Prevention of Improper Use) Act, 1950 (No.12 of 1950) and the Prevention of Insults to National Honour Act, 1971. The last one is worth repeating: Prevention of Insults to National Honour. The full text of the Code can be downloaded here. But we digress.
                                                                                                                              Let’s let the Code itself define what the Indian flag is.
                                                                                                                              The Indian National Flag represents the hopes and aspirations of the people of India. It is the symbol of our national prideOver the last five decades, several people including members of armed forces have ungrudgingly laid down their lives to keep the tricolour flying in its full glory.
                                                                                                                              In other words, the Indian Flag is synonymous with India. It isn’t for superstitious reasons that coffins of soldiers killed in combat are draped in the Indian Flag. We live in times where even the most obvious things need to be said and said loudly: a flag is a symbol. Every nation needs its symbols. An extreme case is the USA where although the usage of the national flag goes to ridiculous extremes–bikinis and suchlike–the patriotic undertone is unmistakable.
                                                                                                                              But it takes perhaps only India, despite having such an elaborate Flag Code, to make a vulgar mockery of it. Actually correct that. It takes only an India under the dispensation that we currently have that flouts every norm of decency, kills national pride bit by bit, debauches democratic institutions, and thinks nothing of bartering the Indian national interest for the sake of remaining in power indefinitely. In the Kashmir affair de disgrace, the UPA headed by the Congress party has demonstrated yet again that it is willing to trade Indian territory if it means even appeasing separatists, an epithet for Pakistan-backed terrorists.
                                                                                                                              Let’s rewind a little and look at this photograph (courtesy the excellent blog of Vinod Sharma).
                                                                                                                              pak flag lal chowk
                                                                                                                              That’s the Pakistan flag at Lal Chowk, Srinagar hoisted last year when a few innocent, misguided youth harmlessly pelted a few pebbles at our policemen and military personnel. Boys will be boys.
                                                                                                                              What did the government do? Nothing. Well actually it did quite a bit but we’ll get to that in just a while. And now in the same Lal Chowk, Indians want to hoist the Indian Flag on Indian soil. What does the Indian
                                                                                                                              Puppet Prime Minister do? He says:
                                                                                                                              …the Republic Day was a solemn occasion that joins all Indians in a shared celebration of nationhood. This was not the time to “score political points, embarrass state and local administrations…or to promote divisive agendas.”
                                                                                                                              A shared celebration of nationhood is meaningless if you block trains stealthily, divert people, and generally use state force against people who want to celebrate the very nationhood you’re talking about–Republic Day flag hoisting is a celebration of nationhood, isn’t it, Mr. Prime Minister? The nation would love to hear you explain how India-flag hoisting on Indian soil on a solemn occasion constitutes scoring political points, embarrassment and divisive agendas. The nation is waiting with bated breath for your 2011 Republic Day speech. Oh wait, but we know where he gets his instructions from. Never mind the speech.
                                                                                                                              So let’s return to last year when the Pakistan flag was hoisted at Lal Chowk. One arm of the government promptly deployed forces to quell the poor pebble-pelters, the real victims. The other arms quietly activated the Secular Galaxy to do the rest. The media was at the forefront. First, it claimed that “harmless” stone pelting was happening. Then it claimed that nobody was hurt in the stone pelting. Then it claimed that a “few people” were hurt. Then it claimed that the stone pelters were the victims of state high-handedness. Further it blacked out news of Pakistan-flag-unfurling at Lal Chowk. Still further, it invited an Islamic lunatic who threatened a Kashmiri Pandit representative, live on Screw-the-People type shows. The print media added more fuel by writing reams of op-eds on the same sickening “victim” theme in the same sickening vein. Court Hagiographers became overnight defendants of what were subsequently called rageboys on Twitter. And so we had a situation where the government sent the army to rein in rebellion–for what? Logically, for protecting its sovereignty? Ensuring peace on its dominion? On the other hand, we had a situation where the same government pinched its media (since known as #mediamafia, #chormedia #dalalmedia) handmaidens to heap abuse on the selfsame army.
                                                                                                                              Cut to the present.
                                                                                                                              Simply put, we as a nation have been reduced to a pathetic state where we need to take out yatras todemand “permission” to hoist our own flag on our own soil–I know I’ve said this a few times already but it bears infinite repitition. Worse, the government is hell-bent on suppressing this “demand.” As they say, it happens only in India. In other words, the state will not think twice before using physical force if somebody wants to express his/her patriotism. Of course, it has its miserable set of justifications none of which stand the scrutiny of reason, decency, morality and the rest. The media as always has already taken the cue. It now says the Indian Tricolour should be in our hearts and “not for show” that the worst kind of politics is that of nationalism, that patriotism isn’t about a political yatra, etc etc. One wonders what kept them busy when Pakistan expressed its“nationalism” in the same Lal Chowk last year. Or when Arundhati Roy continues to openly advocate sedition.
                                                                                                                              But we’re well-versed with their brand of preachy self-righteousness, the I-have-all-the-answers approach. Like bridled horses, their vision is firmly set in the singular direction of 10 Janpath. The Congress declares it’s willing to grant autonomy to Kashmir? Rageboys become victims, the army becomes evil. The BJP declares that it’ll take out a march to hoist the Indian Flag at Lal Chowk? Nationalism, patriotism are dirty politics and flag hoisting is a matter of personal choice, a lofty feeling that should be carried within our hearts and not expressed in public. You do you’re dead, you don’t you’re really dead.
                                                                                                                              Here’s the thing: the evil geniuses in the Congress have realized that Kashmir is probably a lost case, hence the “autonomy offer.” But it doesn’t really matter to them if Kashmir goes; there’s still plenty of India left to cut up. Assam is boiling, its demographics rapidly altering. Several border districts of West Bengal are Muslim-majority where atrocities against Hindus are on the rise. Kerala has become the Jihad factory of the South. Swami Lakshmananda is brutally butchered by the Conversion Mafia and the state apparatus–including Her Highness–doesn’t shed a tear. Large parts of Orissa suffer the same fate. Maoists backed by the Missionary Mafia and all kinds of separatists run riot over large swathes of Indian territory, and our Lion of a Home Minister pays lip service. And so on until a day might arrive when nationalists will need to take out a yatra to hoist the Tricolour on the Red Fort. The Secular Brigade will, as is its wont, play the same tune. If you think this is an incredible future scenario, think about how we got to the present in the first place.
                                                                                                                              And herein lies the deception and the hypocrisy. The liberal-jholawala-bleeding-heart brigade that lectures about personal choice, freedom to not stand up when the national anthem is played, freedom to not respect the National Flag, think nothing about heaping scorn on a system that provides them the freedom to say these things. I’m reminded of this legendary dialogue from A Few Good Men:
                                                                                                                              We use words like honor, code, loyalty…we use these words as the backbone to a life spent defending something. You use ‘em as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom I provide, then questions the manner in which I provide it.
                                                                                                                              Members of this self-righteous bleeding-heart brigade when not busy bellowing against national flag-hoisting, is busy wearing their surnames as a national treasure. The reason is obvious: a surname is not merely a name, it is a symbol of glorious ancestry, wealth, accomplishment, learning, lineage or whatever. Try belittling one of these surnames? Party-brawls ensue outright. But the national flag is…oh well, who cares as long as it doesn’t affect me personally.
                                                                                                                              Flag hoisting in India has deeper connotations. It was one of the more common and popular forms of protest against the British. In 1922, M K Gandhi was imprisoned by the British on charges of sedition (incitement to rebellion). The Congress (yes) party asked Sardar Patel to lead the 1923 Nagpur Satyagraha against a law banning the raising of the Indian flag. His commanding presence and personal example had thousands of volunteers rallying behind him in no time. In the end, he got the British government to release hundreds of prisoners and allow the hosting of the Indian flag in public.
                                                                                                                              Today, the same Congress party is doing the same thing to us that the British did back then.


                                                                                                                              Indian citizen as a child, the state as the adult -- MD Nalapat

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                                                                                                                              MADHAV NALAPAT
                                                                                                                              ROOTS OF POWER
                                                                                                                              It is time to liberate India from Delhi
                                                                                                                              If we are to ensure that the freedom enjoyed by the citizen is present not only in law but in fact, we have to trim the powers concentrated in Delhi.
                                                                                                                              Pranab Mukherjee, as Finance Minister, has the distinction of levying a tax rate of well over 90% on income. PTI
                                                                                                                              awaharlal Nehru, free India's first Prime Minister, retained the entire construct of law and practice left over by the departing British. Those laws and practices — which have only been preserved and added on to over 66 years — were fashioned by the colonial power for a people in chains. They ensured that the administrative authority (whether chosen by London or through the ballot box) retained absolutist power over the lives of citizens. Post-colonial regimes ensured that any structure that had the potential to challenge the authority of government was weakened or eliminated. After the passing away of Vallabhbhai Patel in 1950, Nehru fashioned the economic and foreign policy of India largely on his own, relying on personally selected acolytes for advice. Despite his idealism and his commitment to country, Nehru failed to ensure that the population of India be gifted a legal and administrative structure that treated them to be adults and not children in need of constant chastisement and monitoring. By relying on the state sector rather than giving equal attention to private industry, this country's economy has dwindled to less than a fourth the size of China's, while it was double that country's economic size in 1949. While Nehru sought to maintain the civility of democracy save for exceptions such as the 1959 dismissal of the E.M.S. Namboodiripad ministry in Kerala, his daughter Indira Gandhi launched a cultural revolution as fullscope in its effect as the one unleashed on China in the 1960s by Mao Zedong. Covenants were torn up by her, institutions weakened and political and personal expediency made the driving force behind the ship of state.
                                                                                                                              The savage destruction of the rights of the private citizen — especially in the economic sphere — had as its base the presumption that he or she was still a "child", and that the "adult" (i.e. the state) was the fitter of the two to exercise discretion. Had Nehru given large-scale private industry in India the same degree of support that Tokyo or Seoul gave their own businesses, it would have been Indian rather than South Korean or Japanese companies, which emerged as world beaters. As for the individual, what opportunities there were got ignored by the state. Even to get a passport or the bare minimum of foreign exchange needed to emigrate, for instance, was so difficult that more West Indians than Indians settled in the UK, and several times more inhabitants of Dacca and Lahore than of Mumbai and Chennai. Activity was made as difficult as possible.
                                                                                                                              But there was method in such madness. The more obstacles there were to innovation and enterprise, the more possibilities for politicians and officials to get bribes. A system got created that was geared towards the necessity of bribery, and towards the generation of income outside the tax net, which was substantial. Pranab Mukherjee has the distinction, while looking after the finance portfolio, of levying a tax rate of well over 90% on income that by international standards was meagre. Tax receipts grew very little, and not only because of evasion.
                                                                                                                              There was simply no incentive to do better, if the sole beneficiary was a government not exactly proficient in the quality of the services it provided. Whether such rates were the brainchild of India's present Head of State or that of his then boss, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi is not known. However, in a display of consistency, taxes rose from what they were during his most recent stint as Finance Minister, even higher than the steep rises caused by his predecessor — and successor — P. Chidambaram. Paying out more and more tax for a constantly diminishing basket of services has remained the norm.
                                                                                                                              While in more advanced democracies, systems have evolved which seek to make life and work easier for the average citizen, in India the system is designed to increase the number of chokepoints slowing down the citizen from his tasks. In a context where potential opportunities are multiplying, as is the need for speedy and effective reactions to them, the claustrophobic hold of a bureaucracy ill-equipped for change across the spectrum of Indian life has ensured that the talent of the Indian citizen is denied the chance to be utilised the way it is in countries where the laws and the administration regard the people as mature enough to take their own decisions.
                                                                                                                              The power to take away the property and liberty of a citizen is vested in an unconscionably large number of authorities. Unless a fairer balance gets created between the rights and powers of civil society and those vested in the mechanism of governance, this country cannot be termed a democracy. If we are to ensure that the freedom enjoyed by the citizen is present not only in law but in fact this is only possible by trimming the powers concentrated in Delhi and in ensuring that the residue get more fairly distributed down the line, to state, district, zilla parishad, city and panchayat. It is time that India freed itself from its post-1947 colonial master, Delhi.
                                                                                                                              http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/it-is-time-to-liberate-india-from-delhi#.UhBcANYioCY.gmail

                                                                                                                              Egypt: mosque is stormed. America meddling.

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                                                                                                                              Egypt: mosque is stormed as generals plan to outlaw Muslim Brotherhood

                                                                                                                              Death toll continues to soar, with government saying 173 killed across country on Friday
                                                                                                                               and  in Cairo
                                                                                                                              Police storm al-Fath mosque
                                                                                                                              Egyptian state media reported that security forces had cleared the last protesters from the al-Fath mosque. Photograph: Mohamed El-Shahed/AFP/Getty Images
                                                                                                                              Egypt's descent into violent chaos entered a new phase on Saturday as the military-backed government signalled a plan to outlaw the Muslim Brotherhood, while troops cleared a Cairo mosque of Brotherhood supporters who were protesting against the removal of PresidentMohamed Morsi last month.
                                                                                                                              New deaths fuelled a grimly confrontational mood at the end of a week that saw around 800 people killed, and fast-fading hopes for the future of the 2011 revolution that had come to symbolise the Arab spring. Talk of the risk of an Egyptian civil war is no longer outlandish.
                                                                                                                              The government said that 173 people had died across the country on Friday alone. The latest victims included the son of Mohamed Badie, the Brotherhood's leader.
                                                                                                                              After two days of tense confrontation at the al-Fath mosque near Cairo's Ramses Square, security forces moved in to arrest the last of the protesters. The end of the standoff came after a day of rumour and confusion, punctuated by gunfire and the sound of explosions from inside the building. At one stage, live on TV, a gunman fired at soldiers and police from the minaret of the mosque, with security forces shooting back at the building – close to the capital's main railway station.
                                                                                                                              Government loyalists swamping the surrounding streets cheered and chanted support for the armed forces' commander, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and urged the army to deal with the "terrorists" inside. But a man who said he supported the Brotherhood whispered: "The army is killing us."
                                                                                                                              Badie's son, Amar, was one of about 95 people killed nearby on Friday, designated a "day of rage" to protest against the carnage at the Rabaa al-Adawiya sit-in in eastern Cairo two days earlier. Morsi supporters were trapped inside during the night-time curfew and were not permitted to leave when it ended. It seemed clear that the mosque siege was intended to forestall another prolonged sit-in that would allow the Morsi camp to gain a new foothold.
                                                                                                                              Cairo and al-Fath mosque locatorCredit: Observer Graphics
                                                                                                                              In political developments, the government said that the prime minister, Hazem el-Beblawi, was "studying" plans for the legal dissolution of the Brotherhood, a move that would force it back underground and justify a crackdown that would return it to its position during the days of deposed president Hosni Mubarak and his predecessors.
                                                                                                                              "There will be no reconciliation with those whose hands have been stained with blood and who turned weapons against the state and its institutions," Beblawi told reporters. Beblawi is a respected figure but said to be under pressure from hardline Mubarak-era security officials who were brought back after Morsi's removal and are now orchestrating the no-holds-barred campaign against the Islamists.
                                                                                                                              Government sources hinted at attempts to split the Brotherhood by coaxing the moderate elements to break away.
                                                                                                                              Its political arm, the Freedom and Justice party, won all five elections that followed the toppling of Mubarak. Morsi – who famously promised to rule for "all Egyptians" – governed the country for a year until he was undermined by huge rallies called by opponents who denounced him as incompetent and partisan. Morsi's supporters insisted his removal on 3 July was a military coup engineered by Egypt's shadowy "deep state". Others called it a continuation of the revolution. But plans to formally crush the Brotherhood – portrayed universally as "terrorists" in the official media – appear to spell an end to even slim hopes for political dialogue that might defuse the crisis.
                                                                                                                              "I have been saying that we need to keep the Brotherhood on the political field to guarantee their political and civil rights," said the leftwing commentator Hani Shukrullah. "A considerable number of people who had been involved in the revolution from the start have been urging that."
                                                                                                                              It is certainly hard to find Egyptians or informed foreigners who can identify a sliver of hope about the way ahead. "It's like being in a car that's going at 100 miles per hour and everyone wants to keep pressing down on the accelerator instead of the brake," said the journalist Abdel-Rahman Hussein. "The course has been set and there's no way out of this impasse after the massacre at Rabaa. This could all have been avoided, but I don't see how we can extricate ourselves now."
                                                                                                                              The interior ministry said on Saturday that 1,004 Brotherhood "elements" had been arrested in the past 24 hours. Among others detained were Mohamed al-Zawahiri, brother of the Egyptian-born al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. The ministry also said that 57 policemen had been killed and 563 wounded since Wednesday.
                                                                                                                              Fighting was reported on Saturday in Suez, where state TV showed men in civilian clothes firing a rocket-propelled grenade.
                                                                                                                              The Brotherhood shows no sign of backing down and has urged its supporters to continue taking to the streets. "Our rejection of the coup regime has become an Islamic, national and ethical obligation that we can never abandon," it said.
                                                                                                                              The government also said that 12 churches had been attacked and burned on Friday. The Brotherhood has denied responsibility.


                                                                                                                              August 17, 2013

                                                                                                                              How American Hopes for a Deal in Egypt Were Undercut

                                                                                                                              CAIRO — For a moment, at least, American and European diplomats trying to defuse the volatile standoff in Egypt thought they had a breakthrough.
                                                                                                                              As thousands of Islamist supporters of the ousted president, Mohamed Morsi, braced for a crackdown by the military-imposed government, a senior European diplomat, Bernardino León, told the Islamists of “indications” from the leadership that within hours it would free two imprisoned opposition leaders. In turn, the Islamists had agreed to reduce the size of two protest camps by about half.
                                                                                                                              An hour passed, and nothing happened. Another hour passed, and still no one had been released.
                                                                                                                              The Americans heightened the pressure. Two senators visiting Cairo, John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, met with Gen. Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi, the officer who ousted Mr. Morsi and appointed the new government, and the interim prime minister, Hazem el-Beblawi, and pushed for the release of the two prisoners. But the Egyptians brushed them off.
                                                                                                                              “You could tell people were itching for a fight,” Mr. Graham recalled in an interview. “The prime minister was a disaster. He kept preaching to me: ‘You can’t negotiate with these people. They’ve got to get out of the streets and respect the rule of law.’ I said: ‘Mr. Prime Minister, it’s pretty hard for you to lecture anyone on the rule of law. How many votes did you get? Oh, yeah, you didn’t have an election.’ ”
                                                                                                                              General Sisi, Mr. Graham said, seemed “a little bit intoxicated by power.”
                                                                                                                              The senators walked out that day, Aug. 6, gloomy and convinced that a violent showdown was looming. But the diplomats still held out hope, believing they had persuaded Egypt’s government at least not to declare the talks a failure.
                                                                                                                              The next morning, the government issued a statement declaring that diplomatic efforts had been exhausted and blaming the Islamists for any casualties from the coming crackdown. A week later, Egyptian forces opened a ferocious assault that so far has killed more than 1,000 protesters.
                                                                                                                              All of the efforts of the United States government, all the cajoling, the veiled threats, the high-level envoys from Washington and the 17 personal phone calls by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, failed to forestall the worst political bloodletting in modern Egyptian history. The generals in Cairo felt free to ignore the Americans first on the prisoner release and then on the statement, in a cold-eyed calculation that they would not pay a significant cost — a conclusion bolstered when President Obama responded by canceling a joint military exercise but not $1.5 billion in annual aid.
                                                                                                                              The violent crackdown has left Mr. Obama in a no-win position: risk a partnership that has been the bedrock of Middle East peace for 35 years, or stand by while longtime allies try to hold on to power by mowing down opponents. From one side, the Israelis, Saudis and other Arab allies have lobbied him to go easy on the generals in the interest of thwarting what they see as the larger and more insidious Islamist threat. From the other, an unusual mix of conservatives and liberals has urged him to stand more forcefully against the sort of autocracy that has been a staple of Egyptian life for decades.
                                                                                                                              For now the administration has decided to keep the close relationship with the Egyptian military fundamentally unchanged. But the death toll is climbing, the streets are descending into chaos, and the government and the Islamists are vowing to escalate. It is unclear if the military’s new government can reimpose a version of the old order now that the public believes street protests have toppled two leaders in less than three years, or if, after winning democratic elections, the Islamists will ever again compliantly retreat.
                                                                                                                              As Mr. Obama acknowledged in a statement on Thursday, the American response turns not only on humanitarian values but also on national interests. A country consumed by civil strife may no longer function as a stabilizing ally in a volatile region.
                                                                                                                              An Enduring Headache
                                                                                                                              Mr. Obama has found Egypt’s tumultuous political transition a headache for more than two years. Accused of sticking for too long by President Hosni Mubarak, the longtime ruler in Egypt who was ousted by a popular uprising in 2011, and then criticized when he later abandoned him, Mr. Obama gambled on Mr. Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood leader elected a year ago. He found Mr. Morsi a useful and pragmatic partner in handling issues like a violent flare-up in Gaza. But Mr. Obama became convinced that the Egyptian was not being inclusive enough at home to stabilize his own country.
                                                                                                                              When Secretary of State John Kerry visited Cairo in the spring, he urged Mr. Morsi to reach out to his opposition. If not, Mr. Kerry warned, Mr. Morsi would set the stage for another uprising, this time against himself. But the implied threat only hardened Mr. Morsi’s resolve not to bend, his aides said.
                                                                                                                              Mr. Morsi’s failure to incorporate other factions, his habit of demonizing his critics as part of a treasonous conspiracy and a near-calamitous economic crisis combined to fire up opposition to the Islamists, which spilled out in street protests. Hard-liners with the military and intelligence services who always despised the Muslim Brotherhood saw that the group’s experiment in power might have left it more vulnerable than at any time in its eight decades underground.
                                                                                                                              The Obama administration warned the military against stepping in, noting that a coup would require an aid cutoff under American law. But on July 3 the military moved in, detaining Mr. Morsi and rounding up scores of his allies.
                                                                                                                              Mr. Obama made no public comments, opting instead for tempered written statements. He skirted the aid law by refusing to determine whether Mr. Morsi’s ouster constituted a coup, while Mr. Kerry and Mr. Hagel pressed the military to restore civilian governance as soon as possible.
                                                                                                                              Although Mr. Obama agreed not to restrict the aid, he postponed the delivery of four F-16 fighter jets. At the time, officials discussed pulling out of joint military exercises called Bright Star scheduled for September, but the White House opted to wait to see if the generals would follow through on their threat to clear out pro-Morsi protesters.
                                                                                                                              Western governments took a wait-and-see approach even after the military committed its first mass killing, shooting more than 60 supporters of Mr. Morsi at a sit-in on July 8. Western diplomats did not engage in earnest until July 24, when General Sisi, in dark sunglasses and military regalia, delivered a fiery speech asking the public to turn out for demonstrations giving him a “mandate” to take on the Islamists. Security forces killed 80 more Morsi supporters in their second mass shooting on the day of the demonstration.
                                                                                                                              The next morning, Morsi aides and Brotherhood leaders say, their phones began ringing with American and European diplomats fearing an imminent blood bath.
                                                                                                                              The administration enlisted people on opposite sides of the contest unfolding in Egypt. Diplomats from Qatar, a regional patron of the Muslim Brotherhood, agreed to influence the Islamists. The United Arab Emirates, determined opponents of the Islamists, were brought in to help reach out to the new authorities.
                                                                                                                              But while the Qataris and Emiratis talked about “reconciliation” in front of the Americans, Western diplomats here said they believed the Emiratis were privately urging the Egyptian security forces to crack down.
                                                                                                                              Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the Emirati foreign minister, went to Washington last month and urged the Americans not to cut off aid. The emirates, along with Saudi Arabia, had swiftly supported the military takeover with a pledge of billions of dollars, undermining Western threats to cut off critical loans or aid.
                                                                                                                              The Israelis, whose military had close ties to General Sisi from his former post as head of military intelligence, were supporting the takeover as well. Western diplomats say that General Sisi and his circle appeared to be in heavy communication with Israeli colleagues, and the diplomats believed the Israelis were also undercutting the Western message by reassuring the Egyptians not to worry about American threats to cut off aid.
                                                                                                                              Israeli officials deny having reassured Egypt about the aid, but acknowledge having lobbied Washington to protect it.
                                                                                                                              When Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, proposed an amendment halting military aid to Egypt, the influential American Israel Public Affairs Committee sent a letter to senators on July 31 opposing it, saying it “could increase instability in Egypt and undermine important U.S. interests and negatively impact our Israeli ally.” Statements from influential lawmakers echoed the letter, and the Senate defeated the measure, 86 to 13, later that day.
                                                                                                                              Building Connections
                                                                                                                              Mr. Hagel tried to forge a connection with General Sisi, the defense minister who has become the country’s de facto leader. Mr. Hagel, a 66-year-old decorated Vietnam War veteran, felt he and General Sisi, a 58-year-old graduate of the United States Army War College in Pennsylvania, “clicked right away” when they met in April, an American official said.
                                                                                                                              In a series of phone calls, Mr. Hagel pressed General Sisi for a transition back to civilian rule. They talked nearly every other day, usually for an hour or an hour and a half, lengthened by the use of interpreters. But General Sisi complained that the Obama administration did not fully appreciate that the Islamists posed a threat to Egypt and its army. The general asked Mr. Hagel to convey the danger to Mr. Obama, American officials said.
                                                                                                                              “Their whole sales pitch to us is that the Muslim Brotherhood is a group of terrorists,” said one American officer, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the dialogue.
                                                                                                                              American and European diplomats hoped to reinforce the few officials in Egypt’s interim cabinet who favored an inclusive approach, led by Mohamed ElBaradei, the vice president and Nobel Peace Prize-winning former diplomat. After the second massacre, on July 26, Mr. ElBaradei wanted to resign, but Mr. Kerry talked him out of it, arguing that he was the most potent, if not the only, voice for restraint in the government.
                                                                                                                              But General Sisi never trusted Mr. ElBaradei, and on the other side was a small core of military officers close to the general who saw a chance to finally rid Egypt of the Muslim Brotherhood. Among them were Gen. Mohammed al-Tohami, a mentor and father figure to General Sisi and now head of the intelligence service, and Gen. Mahmoud Hegazy, the general’s protégé and chosen successor as head of military intelligence. And with no serious reprisals against Egypt after two mass killings, many analysts here argue that the hard-liners could only feel emboldened.
                                                                                                                              Mr. Kerry sent his deputy, William J. Burns, to Cairo, where he and a European Union counterpart scrambled to de-escalate the crisis.
                                                                                                                              Under a plan they worked out, the Muslim Brotherhood would limit demonstrations to two squares, thin out crowds and publicly condemn violence. The government would issue a similar statement, commit to an inclusive political process allowing any party to compete in elections and, as a sign of good faith, release Saad al-Katatni, the Muslim Brotherhood speaker of the dissolved Parliament, and Aboul-Ela Maadi, founder of a more moderate Islamist party. Both faced implausible charges of instigating violence, and Western diplomats felt that before the takeover, Mr. Katatni in particular had proved himself a pragmatic voice for compromise.
                                                                                                                              But on Aug. 4, the interim government surprised the diplomats by bringing charges for incitement to murder against the Brotherhood’s supreme guide, Mohamed Badie, who was in hiding, and Khairat el-Shater, its most influential leader, who had been detained.
                                                                                                                              Adding to the shock of the new charges, they came just hours before Mr. Burns and his European partner, Mr. León, were allowed to see Mr. Shater. Mr. Shater embraced the need for dialogue, but did not endorse the proposals.
                                                                                                                              Still, the diplomats grew hopeful that they had gotten through to the government. On the morning of Aug. 6, Brotherhood leaders and diplomats said, Mr. León called Amr Darrag, an adviser to Mr. Morsi and top negotiator for the Islamist coalition, and told him to expect Mr. Katatni and Mr. Maadi to be released within hours. When nothing happened, Mr. Darrag called Mr. León back, the Brotherhood officials said. Do not worry, Mr. León said, arguing that the new government must have put the release off by a day to avoid the appearance of bowing to American pressure.
                                                                                                                              Heightened Tensions
                                                                                                                              Mr. McCain and Mr. Graham arrived in Cairo amid increasing tensions. They went first to see Ambassador Anne W. Patterson. “You could see it on her face, that nobody’s listening,” Mr. Graham said. He said administration officials asked them to press for the release of the two Islamists and to push the Brotherhood to pull people off the street.
                                                                                                                              When the senators asked government officials to release the Islamist leaders, one woman on the Egyptian side stormed out. The senators warned that the United States would ultimately cut off aid if the military did not set elections and amend the Constitution.
                                                                                                                              Mr. Graham recalled arguing with General Sisi. “If Morsi had to stand for re-election anytime soon, he’d lose badly,” the senator remembered saying. “Do you agree?”
                                                                                                                              “Oh, absolutely,” the general answered.
                                                                                                                              “Then what you’re doing now is making him a martyr,” Mr. Graham said. “It’s no longer about how badly they ruled the country and how they marginalized the democratic institutions. It’s now about you.”
                                                                                                                              The meeting with the prime minister was even tenser. As they walked out, Mr. Graham said, he told Mr. McCain, “If this guy’s voice is indicative of the attitude, there’s no pulling out of this thing.”
                                                                                                                              When Egyptian state news media leaked reports of an imminent government statement that diplomacy had failed, the diplomats were stunned, and scrambled to hold it off.
                                                                                                                              The next day, Mr. León, the European envoy, assured the Islamists that although the prisoner release had fallen through, at least the Egyptians had agreed to pull back the statement, Brotherhood leaders said.
                                                                                                                              A half-hour later, it was issued nonetheless. “The phase of diplomatic efforts has ended,” it declared, calling the sit-ins “nonpeaceful” and obliquely blaming the Muslim Brotherhood for any coming violence.
                                                                                                                              The Americans and Europeans were furious, feeling deceived and manipulated. “They were used to justify the violence,” Mr. Darrag said in an interview. “They were just brought in so that the coup government could claim that the negotiations failed, and, in fact, there were no negotiations.”
                                                                                                                              Mr. Burns left Cairo with a sense of foreboding. Western diplomats in Cairo said that, despite their public statements at the time to the contrary, it was then that they, too, gave up hope.
                                                                                                                              Mr. Hagel made a last stab at holding off violence. He called General Sisi late on the afternoon of Aug. 9, and they talked for 90 minutes. “Secretary Hagel was strongly urging restraint,” said an American official briefed on the conversation. The secretary recited the same talking points he had been delivering for weeks: avoid violence, respect freedom of assembly and move toward an inclusive political transition.
                                                                                                                              But within the Egyptian government, the only real debate was about tactics and blame. Mohamed Ibrahim, the interior minister under Mr. Morsi who had kept his job by refusing to protect the Islamists, was convinced that brute force was the only way to break up sit-ins by tens of thousands of Morsi supporters. But diplomats and Egyptian officials said Mr. Ibrahim was worried that if the assaults went badly he might be held up as a scapegoat.
                                                                                                                              Last Sunday, Interior Ministry officials told journalists that the police would move in at dawn to choke off the sit-ins, cutting off food and water and gradually escalating nonlethal force. But overnight, diplomats said, Mr. Ibrahim reconsidered, worried that a gradual approach would expose the police to Brotherhood retaliation, for which he could be blamed.
                                                                                                                              Two days later, Mr. Ibrahim and the government told Mr. ElBaradei that they had a new plan to minimize casualties: maximum force to get it over with quickly, the Western diplomats said. And the military had agreed to support the police. But the attack the next morning left more than 600 dead, according to official figures that soon grew. By midday, Mr. ElBaradei had resigned.
                                                                                                                              As images of Egyptian security forces opening fire flickered across television screens in Washington, Mr. Hagel called General Sisi again and warned him that the violence had put “important elements of our longstanding defense cooperation at risk,” as he put it in a statement afterward. Mr. Kerry made the same points in tandem to the interim foreign minister, Nabil Fahmy.
                                                                                                                              Mr. Obama announced the cancellation of Bright Star exercises without saying anything about the aid. As of Friday, American officials were still working phone lines to Cairo. Mr. Kerry talked with his Egyptian counterpart, urging the government to appoint an envoy to negotiate directly with the Islamists, United States officials said. But the diplomats and military officers in the two countries seemed to be talking past each other.
                                                                                                                              “The million-dollar question now,” said one American military officer, “is where is the threshold of violence for cutting ties?”
                                                                                                                              David D. Kirkpatrick reported from Cairo, and Peter Baker and Michael R. Gordon from Washington. Reporting was contributed by Eric Schmitt, Mark Mazzetti and Thom Shanker from Washington; Mark Landler from Chilmark, Mass.; and Steven Erlanger from London.

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