The importance of bedfellows | |
| OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT | Tuesday , May 21 , 2013 | | |
New Delhi, May 20: The mood of the nation has decisively turned against the UPA and although the main beneficiary will be the BJP-led NDA, parties not allied with either will gain a large chunk of the seats if the general election is held now, according to an opinion poll. The survey carried out by The Nielsen Company for ABP News, the television channel owned by the publishers of The Telegraph, predicts a sharp fall in the UPA’s overall tally to 136 seats and a surge by the NDA to 206. Parties not part of the two combinations will get as many as 167 seats, according to the opinion poll conducted among 33,408 respondents in 152 Lok Sabha seats and 302 Assembly segments. UPA II enters its fifth year this week. If the trends thrown up by the survey hold till the country goes to the polls, the ability to win over fence-sitters or neutrals could emerge as the make-or-break factor. In the previous Lok Sabha polls in 2009, the Congress alone had won 206 seats while the BJP was restricted to 116. The survey suggests a seven per cent dip in the Congress share but the BJP is shown as gaining only 1 per cent of the slice. Only 69 per cent of those who voted for the Congress in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections are standing by the party while 31 per cent have moved away. Of these disillusioned voters, only 12 per cent are going to the BJP, indicating that the regional forces will gain from the Congress’s plight. In spite of a perception that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s image had been battered, 37 per cent respondents felt his performance was good or very good. This indicates that the source of the UPA’s agony need not be Manmohan, who has been described by the BJP as the weakest ever Prime Minister. But Manmohan falls just behind Narendra Modi in terms of overall popularity. Asked to choose the best leader in the country, 17 per cent opted for Modi while 16 per cent picked Manmohan. Modi was at number four in the last survey conducted by Nielsen, around a year ago, while Manmohan ranked first followed by Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi. Rahul’s scores have now dipped from 19 per cent to 13 per cent and Sonia’s from 14 per cent to 9 per cent. Delhi epitomises the Congress’s decline. The party, which swept all the seven Lok Sabha seats in 2009, is predicted to win only two with five going to the BJP. The Congress was hoping anti-incumbency against the three-term Sheila Dikshit government would be neutralised by the division of votes between the BJP and Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party, but the survey is not reflecting that possibility. In Bihar, the survey delivers an alarming message to Nitish Kumar, suggesting that the Congress-RJD combine would win 23 out of the 40 seats if the JD(U) broke its alliance with the BJP. In that case, the BJP will get only six seats and the JD(U) nine. But if the BJP’s alliance with the JD(U) survives, the combine can win 34 of the 40 seats, according to the survey. In Maharashtra, the survey gives an edge to the BJP and the Shiv Sena even if they contest separately. In Uttar Pradesh, a leap is predicted for the BJP — 23 from 10 in 2009, while the Congress slumps to six from 21. UPA set for a crushing defeat: ABP News-Nielsen Survey ABP News Bureau Monday, 20 May 2013 18:45 New Delhi: After nine years of rule, the UPA is set for a massive defeat. If polls were held today, the United Progressive Alliance will get a mere 136 Lok Sabha seats, according to a countrywide survey done by ABP News-Nilesen. The main Opposition NDA will garner 206 seats while others parties will get 167 seats. Neither the United Progressive Alliance nor the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will get the magic numbers in general elections if it were to take place today. Voters are not in mood to see Congress-led UPA government back in power. In the 2009 general elections, Congress alone had won 209 seats. Left parties will get 34 seats in election, said the survey. The NDA may try to form government but will need another 66 seats in their support. Zonal performance: UPA is winning 33 seats in East and 36 in North in comparison to NDA’s 49 and 67. In South UPA gets 36 seats against NDA’s 10 seats. The major players in southern states are the southern parties with 75 seats. Modi’s effect is visible in western states. With 80 seats, the NDA is leading the zone. Congress will win 36 seats. Vote Share: UPA will garner 26% of votes, and NDA is getting 27% votes. The other parties will be the most voted parties in the country. A whooping 41% votes are spread among other parties while Left gets a meager 6% votes. Overall, 31% of respondents are intending to vote for BJP, if the Lok Sabha elections are held now, whereas 20% are intending for INC. 74% of those who voted for INC during 2009 Lok Sabha elections, are still intending to vote for INC if Lok sabha elections are held now; 26% are moving away from INC, out of which 9% are intending to vote for BJP. Whereas for BJP, 90% will stick with them and only 2% intend to move away from BJP to INC. Public want options and they are serious about it. Modi has good governance record and he has an effective leadership. BJP’s parliamentary board will decide the rest of thing, Ravishankar Prasad, BJP spokesperson told ABP News. Sampling and Methodology: The target respondent was male / female, 18 years & above. Male : Female ratio (64:36) Large scale quantitative study. Nationwide Coverage across 152 Parliamentary Constituencies in 21 States/UTs of India. In each Parliamentary constituency, 2 Assembly Constituencies were sampled and a total 33408 people were interviewed. All interviews were door to door interviews carried out in a face to face setting. Interviews were conducted using largely a structured questionnaire. The complete field work was carried out in the period, 1st May to 10th May 2013. http://www.newsbullet.in/india/34-more/42023-UPA%20set%20for%20a%20crushing%20defeat:%20ABP%20News-Nielsen%20Survey |
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SoniaG UPA set for a crushing defeat: ABP News-Nielsen Survey
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