Narendra Modi
Steamroller
A controversial leader has ambitions to be India’s next prime minister
Apr 13th 2013 | DELHI |From the print edition
Good Modi, Bad Modi
HOW far will Narendra Modi rise? The stocky chief minister of Gujarat, a state in western India, already boasts a rags-to-success story. The son of a low-caste chai-wallah who became a lowly member of the Hindu nationalist movement, has in the past few weeks at last emerged as the dominant figure of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Re-elected in Gujarat in December after 11 years in power, his ambitions are now national. The de facto BJP candidate to be prime minister after the election due by next year, evidence abounds of his growing clout. In March the BJP’s president, Rajnath Singh, an old opponent, was forced into two concessions. First Mr Modi, alone among chief ministers, muscled himself onto a pair of important party committees. Then his right-hand man, Amit Shah, was installed as the party’s general secretary. A fellow Gujarati, Mr Shah will be tried over the murder in custody of a Muslim couple who allegedly planned to kill Mr Modi in 2005. Yet he is an asset for the leader: a back-room fixer and election manager, utterly loyal to his boss.
They like his unapologetic stance over riots in Gujarat in 2002, when over 1,000 people were killed, mostly Muslims. Police and politicians ignored or actively directed the massacres. Subsequent investigations by state bodies were feeble, but out-of-state judicial efforts also failed to find evidence to convict Mr Modi. Others did fall, however. Last year an ex-minister of his, Maya Kodnani, was jailed for 28 years for directing murderous mobs.Mr Modi’s strength comes from two sources. The more troubling is an assertive strain of Hindu-based politics. Leaders of the influential Hindu nationalist movement, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, distrust him as too independent-minded. But ordinary members back him fervently, yearning for a Hindu strongman.
Asked about the riots last year, Mr Modi retorted that since he keeps winning elections, “I have completed this examination, and with distinction marks”. Hardliners, notably his noisy social-media camp, cheer such defiance. Yet Hindu chauvinism pays diminishing returns nationally. For the BJP to get anything near to the 200 (out of 545) seats it needs in 2014 to be sure of leading a coalition government, Mr Modi must appeal beyond his base to an emerging urban middle class worried about jobs, development and corruption.
Hence Mr Modi’s second source of power: as a moderniser flaunting the economic progress of Gujarat. Investors in his state like the bountiful power, decent roads, quick and fairly clean decision-making and the easy provision of land. Migrants come for jobs. Gujaratis’ incomes have much more than doubled under him.
Gujarat is not all golden. Academics note that social indicators—child malnutrition, the lot of women—painfully lag economic growth. Other states tackle poverty and ill health better. Nor can its experience easily be transplanted. Gujaratis’ history of trade and entrepreneurship is exceptional. And, as head of a national coalition, Mr Modi would lack the near-presidential powers he enjoys as chief minister.
This week he undertook a roadshow of sorts with a series of speeches and television addresses. He set out a vision of smaller, better government and promoted the privatisation of state-run firms, an education-voucher system and solar power. He also proposes easing cumbersome labour laws. Some talked this week of their son of a tea-seller as India’s answer to the grocer’s daughter, Margaret Thatcher.
National campaigning will start after various state-assembly elections in November. Observers expect a more presidential style of contest than usual. So television will especially matter: at the last election in 2009, 460m people had a box at home. Next year nearer 800m will. That should suit Mr Modi: he is charismatic, physically large, at times aggressive, and his outsider status is appealing. He will probably run from beyond Gujarat, in a constituency in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, where the BJP must make gains if it is to form a national government.
His main opponent may be Congress’s Rahul Gandhi, the ultimate privileged insider. Mr Gandhi also spoke to a business lobby in Delhi, on April 4th. His speech was crammed with well-meaning talk of “inclusive” growth. But he also rejected the idea of “a hero riding a horse” to save India. His distaste for politics sounded visceral; the question of who will be prime minister is “irrelevant” noise.
Thus the BJP may bet heavily on Mr Modi. But there are risks. He could be rejected by Muslims and moderate Hindus. Mr Modi’s campaigning outside Gujarat in 2009 brought out crowds but gathered few votes. The other possibility is that next year’s election is decided less by presidential style and more by old-fashioned, state-level deals between parties on fielding candidates. That calls for organisation, not flashy leadership. Voters may yet care most about local issues. And, counter-intuitively, even Mr Gandhi’s diffidence might turn out to be a boon. Congress may try to attract national coalition allies among those wary of serving alongside the uncompromising, never apologetic, Mr Modi.