BJP to be biggest party in 2014 election - opinion polls
NEW DELHI
1 OF 3. Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi, prime ministerial candidate for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Gujarat's chief minister, speaks during their national council meeting at Ramlila ground in New Delhi January 19, 2014.
CREDIT: REUTERS/ADNAN ABIDI
(Reuters) - The opposition Hindu nationalist party of prime ministerial hopeful Narendra Modi is on course to emerge the biggest in general elections due by May, two opinion polls showed on Thursday.
Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to win 188 seats in the 543-seat parliament, over twice the predicted tally of the Congress of outgoing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, according to a poll on Thursday by pollsters CVoter and the India Today media group.
Given India's diverse and fragmented electorate, neither the BJP nor any other party is expected to win the 272 seats needed for an outright majority. The biggest party will seek to form a coalition with regional parties.
The Congress, which has yet to name its prime ministerial candidate, faces an uphill struggle this year due to public anger over a string of corruption scandals and economic growth hitting a decade-low.
Another poll forecast that the BJP would win the lion's share of the vote in many of the big states that typically decide the fate of the elections.
The party is forecast to win 41-49 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state and home to 200 million people, according to a survey by pollsters CSDS and the CNN-IBN news channel, the results of which were released in stages this week.
It is also predicted to emerge as the largest group in Bihar, with 16-24 of the state's 40 seats, and to win well over half of the 48 seats in Maharashtra along with its long-term ally, the Shiv Sena. Maharashtra is home to India's financial capital Mumbai.
Modi, who has presided over rapid economic growth during more than 12 years as the chief minister of Gujarat, has been wooing voters by pointing to his track record as a leader who cuts red tape and attracts investment.
"People have already decided the outcome of the election. Congress-free India will be a reality," Modi said at a packed rally in Uttar Pradesh on Thursday, where his podium was decorated with floral garlands.
GANDHI
Congress has decided not to name its prime ministerial candidate until after the elections even though many party workers had wanted Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty that leads the party, to take on the role.
"Three to four months back, people were saying this would be a presidential-style race between Modi and Rahul Gandhi," said CSDS director Sanjay Kumar. "Now things have changed, now it's not a presidential race - it is a referendum on Modi."
CVoter surveyed almost 21,800 respondents across 28 states, with a three per cent margin of error at the national level. The CSDS poll surveyed just under 18,600 voters in 18 states, with a margin of error that varies from state to state. It will issue a national projection on Friday.
One factor that could upset these forecasts is the rise of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a new anti-graft group that claimed a surprise victory in local elections in Delhi last month and has since decided to take part in the national polls.
The CVoter survey forecast that the new party would win 10 seats in the national polls.
"I think they will have an impact in northern India and the cities, but it's too early to say to what extent," said Neerja Chowdhury, a political analyst and a former political editor of the Indian Express newspaper.
While Modi has a strong showing in the polls, he could struggle to find coalition allies as his image remains tarnished by communal riots in Gujarat 12 years ago, in which more than 1,000 people were killed, most of them Muslims.
Modi has denied that he failed to stop the violence and a Supreme Court inquiry found no evidence to prosecute him.
"If the BJP crosses the magic number of 182, Modi should be able to do it," said Chowdhury, referring to the 182 seats that the BJP won when it last formed a coalition government in 1999.
India's diverse political landscape makes election results notoriously hard to forecast, particularly in terms of how many seats a party might win, versus the more straightforward calculation of a party's share of the overall vote.
(Additional reporting by Frank Jack Daniel and Malini Menon in NEW DELHI)
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/01/23/election2014-bjp-congress-modi-aap-idINDEEA0M0EN20140123
NDA may win over 200 seats as Modi's popularity soars further: India Today Mood of the Nation opinion poll | |
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 Narendra Modi  Narendra Modi The opinion poll gives the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) only around 100 seats, down by over 150 seats in the current Lok Sabha. It also underlines the significance of a possible Third Front in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election as the non-UPA, non-NDA parties and Independents are expected to win 220-odd seats. Also read: Telangana jolts Congress, loses ground in South | Modi wave grips Bihar, Trinamool sweeps Bengal | Modi wave gets NDA 85 per cent seats in West India | Modi-led NDA all set to topple UPA: India Today poll The NDA thus crosses the 200-mark for the first time since 2010. Both, the NDA and the likely Third Front, gains substantially in numbers and vote share. The opinion poll suggests that the NDA's vote share of 34 per cent will be significantly more than the UPA's 23. However, the others will have the maximum vote share of 43 per cent.  Under the leadership of Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks all set to become the single largest party as it is also likely to emerge the biggest gainer in the Lok Sabha polls. Its 2009 tally of 116 is expected to rise to 188 in 2014, an increase of more than 60 per cent. Congress, under the leadership of its vice-president Rahul Gandhi, might win just 91 seats, as compared to its current tally of 206, a drop of about 55 per cent.  Rahul Gandhi The Congress ploy of propping AAP to counter Modi at the national level seems to have a limited impact, as Kejriwal's gains are restricted to areas around Delhi and a few metro cities only.  Modi consolidates his position Modi, who emerged as the strongest leader within his party after the BJP's hat-trick in Gujarat in December 2012, cemented his position further through strong campaigning across the country. As the party's lead campaigner in the recently held assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi he consolidated his position further. In the latest India Today Mood of the Nation opinion poll, as many as 47 per cent people voted him as the best prime ministerial candidate against his previous best of 42 per cent polled in August 2013. The Gandhi scion was way behind Modi with just 15 per cent votes, followed by Kejriwal with 9 per cent votes and 6 per cent votes each to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress president Sonia Gandhi.  During these five months Modi was also able to improve his image from being a communal leader to being pro-development. To a question "what does Modi represent", the option "communalism" saw a drop of 11 per cent from 18 per cent in August 2013, while "economic development" increased by 6 per cent to 30 per cent. The number of people thinking Modi should apologise for the 2002 Gujarat riots also fell drastically during this period to 39 per cent from the previous figure of 51 per cent.  Modi as a role model The Gujarat chief minister emerged as a role model for the highest 17 per cent respondents, a gain of as much percentage as nobody earlier saw him as one among the overall personalities of India. Modi was followed by Kejriwal with 14 per cent votes, up from 2 per cent. Bollywood superstar Salman Khan too saw a big jump in his popularity as 10 per cent people saw him as a role model, up from the previous 1 per cent, followed by legendary singer Lata Mangeshkar's 9 per cent against 2 per cent in the earlier opinion poll. Veteran anti-corruption activist Anna Hazare's position as a role model remained unchanged with 7 per cent votes. | |
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/nda-may-win-over-200-seats-as-modis-popularity-soars-further-india-today-mood-of-the-nation-opinion-poll/1/339374.html