Thanks to Michal Danino, for an excellent and lucid bibliographical essay on climate studies of the Bronze Age with particular reference to impact on the Sarasvati-Sindhu civilization.
Cutting out the polemics related to discussions on Vedic River Sarasvati as a glacier-fed river ca. 3000 BCE, one fact is indisputable. Navigable channels existed from Rakhigarhi to Haifa for seafaring Meluhha merchants to transact their Bronze Age trade.
A cylinder seal was found in Rakhigarhi, a signature token attesting to contacts with Mesopotamian civiliation. I have argued that the enire Indus Script Corpora of over 7000 inscriptions are metalwork catalogues transacted along the Maritime Tin Route from Hanoi to Haifa, 2 millennia before the Silk Road.
Cylinder seal found at Rakhigarhi
Fish+ crocodile: aya, ayo 'fish' rebus: aya 'iron' ayas 'metal'; karA 'crocodile'rebus:khAr 'blacksmith' dATu 'cross' rebus: dhAtu 'ore,mineral' śrētrī ʻ ladder ʼ.rebus: seṭṭhin -- m. ʻ guild -- master (Pali) sal 'splinter' rebus: sal 'workshop'.
Sign 186 *śrētrī ʻ ladder ʼ. [Cf. śrētr̥ -- ʻ one who has recourse to ʼ MBh. -- See śrití -- . -- √śri]Ash. ċeitr ʻ ladder ʼ (< *ċaitr -- dissim. from ċraitr -- ?).(CDIAL 12720)*śrēṣṭrī2 ʻ line, ladder ʼ. [For mng. ʻ line ʼ conn. with √śriṣ2 cf. śrḗṇi -- ~ √śri. -- See śrití -- . -- √śriṣ2]Pk. sēḍhĭ̄ -- f. ʻ line, row ʼ (cf. pasēḍhi -- f. ʻ id. ʼ. -- < EMIA. *sēṭhī -- sanskritized as śrēḍhī -- , śrēṭī -- , śrēḍī<-> (Col.), śrēdhī -- (W.) f. ʻ a partic. progression of arithmetical figures ʼ); K. hēr, dat. °ri f. ʻ ladder ʼ.(CDIAL 12724) Rebus: śrḗṣṭha ʻ most splendid, best ʼ RV. [śrīˊ -- ]Pa. seṭṭha -- ʻ best ʼ, Aś.shah. man. sreṭha -- , gir. sesṭa -- , kāl. seṭha -- , Dhp. śeṭha -- , Pk. seṭṭha -- , siṭṭha -- ; N. seṭh ʻ great, noble, superior ʼ; Or. seṭha ʻ chief, principal ʼ; Si. seṭa, °ṭu ʻ noble, excellent ʼ. śrēṣṭhin m. ʻ distinguished man ʼ AitBr., ʻ foreman of a guild ʼ, °nī -- f. ʻ his wife ʼ Hariv. [śrḗṣṭha -- ]Pa. seṭṭhin -- m. ʻ guild -- master ʼ, Dhp. śeṭhi, Pk. seṭṭhi -- , siṭṭhi -- m., °iṇī -- f.; S. seṭhi m. ʻ wholesale merchant ʼ; P. seṭh m. ʻ head of a guild, banker ʼ, seṭhaṇ, °ṇī f.; Ku.gng. śēṭh ʻ rich man ʼ; N. seṭh ʻ banker ʼ; B. seṭh ʻ head of a guild, merchant ʼ; Or. seṭhi ʻ caste of washermen ʼ; Bhoj. Aw.lakh. sēṭhi ʻ merchant, banker ʼ, H. seṭh m., °ṭhan f.; G. śeṭh, śeṭhiyɔ m. ʻ wholesale merchant, employer, master ʼ; M. śeṭh, °ṭhī, śeṭ, °ṭī m. ʻ respectful term for banker or merchant ʼ; Si. siṭu, hi° ʻ banker, nobleman ʼ H. Smith JA 1950, 208 (or < śiṣṭá -- 2?)(CDIAL 12725, 12726)
M. kārṇī m. ʻ prime minister, supercargo of a ship ʼ, kul -- karṇī m. ʻ village accountant ʼ.kāraṇika m. ʻ teacher ʼ MBh., ʻ judge ʼ Pañcat. [
Thus, the two hieroglyphs: 1.spread legs and 2. rim of jar are conclusive determinants signifying language used by the artisans: Prakrtam (mleccha/meluhha) and the underlying language basse for the hypertexts of Indus Script Corpora.
Rakhigarhi extending over 350 hectares is the largest site of Sarasvati-Sindhu civilization. Two seals with identical messages found in both Rakhigarhi and Banawali signify a karNika, Supercargo (functionary of the metalwork guild; Rebus kañi-āra '
I suggest that both Rakhigarhi seal and Banawali seal convey the identical message signifying a Supercargo (karNika), with a seafaring vessel (cargo boat), supervising the merchandise of dhAtu 'strands of rope' rebus: dhAtu 'minerals' from a fire--altar; sal 'splinter' rebus: sal 'workshop' (Hieroglyph: gaNDa 'four'Rebus: kanda 'fire-altar' khaNDa 'implements') PLUS ayo, aya 'fish' rebus: aya 'iron, ayas 'metal' PLUS adaren 'lid' rebus: aduru 'unsmelted metal'.PLUS khambhaṛā 'fish-fin' rebus: kammaTa 'mint, coin, coiner, coinage'. The tiger is horned: koD 'horn' rebus: koD 'workshop' kola 'tiger' rebus: kol 'working in iron' kolhe 'smelter' kolle 'blacksmith' Thus, horned tiger signified smelter-workshop of blacksmith. The Supercargo karNika, signified with the standing person with legs spread is shown as possessing a sangaDa 'a cargo boat'. Hieroglyph: सांगड sāṅgaḍa lathe, portable furnace Rebus: sangaDa 'cargo boat'.
Rakhigarhi seal replicates 
Banawari. Seal 17. Text 9201 Found in a gold-silversmith's residence.. Hornd tiger PLUS lathe + portable furnace. Banawali 17, Text 9201 Find spot: “The plan of ‘palatial building’ rectangular in shape (52 X 46 m) with eleven units of rooms…The discovery of a tiger seal from the sitting room and a few others from the house and its vicinity, weights ofchert, and lapis lazuli beads and deluxe Harappan pottery indicate that the house belonged to a prominent merchant.” (loc.cit. VK Agnihotri, 2005, Indian History, Delhi, Allied Publishers, p. A-60)
Message on metalwork: kol ‘tiger’ (Santali); kollan ‘blacksmith’ (Ta.) kod. ‘horn’; kod. ‘artisan’s workshop’ PLUS śagaḍī = lathe (Gujarati) san:gaḍa, ‘lathe, portable furnace’; rebus: sangath संगथ् । संयोगः f. (sg. dat. sangüʦü association, living together, partnership (e.g. of beggars, rakes, members of a caravan, and so on); (of a man or woman) copulation, sexual union.sangāṭh संगाठ् । सामग्री m. (sg. dat. sangāṭas संगाटस्), a collection (of implements, tools, materials, for any object), apparatus, furniture, a collection of the things wanted on a journey, luggage, and so on. --karun -- करुन् । सामग्रीसंग्रहः m.inf. to collect the ab. (L.V. 17).(Kashmiri)
Hieroglyph multiplex: gaNDa 'four' Rebus: khaNDa 'metal implements' aya 'fish' Rebus: aya 'iron' ayas 'metal' aDaren 'lid' Rebus: aduru 'native metal'
Hieroglyph: sal 'splinter' Rebus: sal 'workshop'
Hieroglyph: dhāˊtu 'strand' Rebus: mineral: dhāˊtu n. ʻ substance ʼ RV., m. ʻ element ʼ MBh., ʻ metal, mineral, ore (esp. of a red colour) ʼ Mn., ʻ ashes of the dead ʼ lex., ʻ *strand of rope ʼ (cf. tridhāˊtu -- ʻ threefold ʼ RV., ayugdhātu -- ʻ having an uneven number of strands ʼ KātyŚr.). [√dhā ]Pa. dhātu -- m. ʻ element, ashes of the dead, relic ʼ; KharI. dhatu ʻ relic ʼ; Pk. dhāu -- m. ʻ metal, red chalk ʼ; N. dhāu ʻ ore (esp. of copper) ʼ; Or. ḍhāu ʻ red chalk, red ochre ʼ (whence ḍhāuā ʻ reddish ʼ; M.dhāū, dhāv m.f. ʻ a partic. soft red stone ʼ (whence dhā̆vaḍ m. ʻ a caste of iron -- smelters ʼ, dhāvḍī ʻ composed of or relating to iron ʼ); -- Si. dā ʻ relic ʼ; -- S. dhāī f. ʻ wisp of fibres added from time to time to a rope that is being twisted ʼ, L. dhāī˜ f. (CDIAL 6773).
Alternative: Hieroglyhph: Ko. gōṭu ʻ silver or gold braid ʼ Rebus: M. goṭ metal wristlet ʼ P. goṭṭā ʻ gold or silver lace ʼ, H. goṭā m. ʻ edging of such ʼ (→ K. goṭa m. ʻ edging of gold braid ʼ, S. goṭo m. ʻ gold or silver lace ʼ); P. goṭ f. ʻ spool on which gold or silver wire is wound, piece on a chequer board ʼ; (CDIAL 4271)
S. Kalyanaraman
Sarasvati Research Center
August 26, 2016
Michel Danino* 2016 Environmental factors in the decline of the Indus-Sarasvati Civilization in: Nanditha Krishna, ed., The environment and Indian History, CP Ramaswami Aiyar Foundation, Chennai, 2016, pp. 132-148
* Guest Professor, Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.
Author of “The Lost River : On the Trail of the Sarasvati“ (Penguin India, 2010),
This paper is an adaptation and revision of two earlier papers on the same theme.
Abstract
It is now widely accepted that climatic and environmental factors played a significant part in the decline of the Indus-Sarasvati civilization.
While climatic studies from the 1970s to 1990s tended to support the view that a marked trend towards aridity had set in even before the
civilization’s urban or Mature phase, more recent studies have pushed this shift to the end of the second millennium BCE, which coincides with
the end of the Mature phase (2600-1900 BCE). This is also the time when, in the east, the Sarasvati dwindled to a minor seasonal river, while floods appear to have been caused by a shifting Indus in the west. Other
possible causes include the pressure put on remaining forests by intensive industrial activities. In any case, the archaeological evidence records the
abandonment of hundreds of Harappan sites in the Sarasvati’s basin (which includes today’s Cholistan), and an eastward movement of Late
Harappan settlements.
Background
The decline and disappearance of the Indus-Sarasvati Civilization in
its urban form has been an enduring object of speculation. In the absence
of any corroborative archaeological evidence, barbarian (and generally
“Aryan”) invasions have been firmly ruled out as a potential cause.
Alternative scenarios include political, socioeconomic or environmental
6
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS IN THE DECLINE
OF THE INDUS–SARASVATI CIVILIZATION
Michel Danino*
* Guest Professor, Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.
Author of “The Lost River : On the Trail of the Sarasvati“ (Penguin India, 2010),
This paper is an adaptation and revision of two earlier papers on the same theme.
133
factors, the first two of which are untestable in the present state of our
knowledge. As regards the last, considerable data on the environmental
and climatic conditions of the northwest of the Indian subcontinent before,
during and after the Harappan age has accumulated in recent decades.
Although some archaeologists have warned against the pitfall of
attributing disruptions in the course of ancient civilizations and cultures to
“environmental determinism,” the impact of environment and climate can
no longer be ignored either. The prolonged drought that affected, in 2200–
2100 BCE, large parts of Africa,1 China,2 North America,3 Near and Middle
East,4 probably causing the collapse of the Akkadian empire,5 is a case in
point. The case of the Indus-Sarasvati civilization remains complex, partly
because of apparently conflicting views on what kind climate and
environment prevailed in its Mature or urban phase. Although John
Marshall remarked in 1931 that the extensive use of fired bricks at
Mohenjo-daro pointed to a wetter environment,6 later archaeologists
disagreed and found little or no evidence for a climate significantly
different from today’s. As the late Gregory Possehl wrote in 2002, “The
climate of this region [Greater Indus Valley] was not markedly different
in the third millennium BCE from the one we have today.”7
Can recent evidence decide which school of thought is right?8
Was the Harappan climate as dry as today’s?
Among the studies leading to the conclusion that the Harappan climate
and environment were hardly different from today’s, the following have
been often cited:
❖ Gurdip Singh’s 1971 palynological study of three lakes of Rajasthan
envisaged a wet climate during the Mature phase followed by a sharp
decline in rainfall around 2000 BCE.9 However, Shaffer’s and
Lichtenstein’s10 recalibration of his radiocarbon dates pushed the wet
phase to Early Harappan times, leaving the Mature phase in an already
marked trend to aridity.
❖ R.A. Bryson and A.M. Swain, also from lakes of Rajasthan, reached a
conclusion similar to Singh’s.11 But here again, recalibration pushed the
phase of higher rainfall “to a pre-Mature Harappan period.”12
Environmental Factors
134 The Environment and Indian History
❖ M.B. McKean, studying pollen and sediments in the region of Balakot,
found nothing suggesting that “the climate during the protohistoric
period in Las Bela was decidedly wetter than at present.”13
❖ In 1983–85, an Indo-French mission explored an area of Haryana and
Rajasthan between the Ghaggar and the Chautang; from a study of
sediments in paleobeds, geologist Marie-Agnès Courty concluded that
“Yamuna-like rivers ... stopped flowing in the study area well before
the Protohistoric period.”14
❖ In 1995, M.A. Geyh and D. Ploethner15 carried out an isotopic study in
a 100 km-long section of the Hakra’s floodplain in Cholistan, close to
the Indian border, and came up with dates ranging from 11000 to
2700 BCE.16 This suggests that shortly before the Mature phase, the Hakra
stopped flowing in this section.
❖ In 1997, S.M. Rao and K.M. Kulkarni conducted isotope studies in
water drawn from wells in western Rajasthan along the bed of a
“defunct river” and found no recharge after about 3000 BCE.17
❖ In 1999, Y. Enzel and eight colleagues analyzed sediments of the now
mostly dry lake of Lunkaransar and found that it held water in
8000 BCE, began to decline around 4000 BCE and dried up by 3500 BCE.18
Or was it wetter?
More recent studies have pointed to the opposite conclusion, including
a more intense monsoon in Mature Harappan times:
❖ In 1983, R.J. Wasson et al. studied the Didwana lake of Rajasthan and
found that “freshwater, high lake level conditions prevailed” between
4000 and 2000 BCE.19 This precisely includes the Mature Harappan phase.
❖ In 1996, P.D. Naidu, studying planktonic foraminifers from the Arabian
Sea, found that the upwelling, and therefore the south-west monsoon,
was at its lowest from about 1500 BCE to AD 800.20
❖ In 1999, Ulrich von Rad et al. studied sediments in the Arabian Sea off
Karachi, and concluded that “precipitation decreased in southern
135
Pakistan after 4000-3500 yr BP,”21 i.e. after 2000 BCE, which agrees with
the preceding study.
❖ A year later, Netajirao Phadtare examined pollen and peat in the Garhwal
Himalayas and found evidence of “a warm, humid climate, with highest
monsoon intensity” from about 4000 to 2500 BCE; after 2000 BCE, there
was “a sharp decrease in temperature and rainfall.” Phadtare cited five
independent studies (not part of our list here) from other regions that
support “a decrease in the strength of the Southwest monsoon about
4000 cal yr BP.”22
❖ In 2003, M. Staubwasser et al. analyzed planktonic oxygen isotope ratios
off the Indus delta. Their findings revealed climate changes during the
last 6,000 years, “with the most prominent change recorded at
4.2 ka BP,” along with “a reduction in Indus river discharge.” They
observed, “The 4.2 ka event is coherent with the termination of urban
Harappan civilization in the Indus valley.”23
❖ In 2006, Anil K. Gupta et al. synthesized research on the monsoon and
other climatic inputs from many sources including their own. “It appears
to us,” they concluded, “that the arid phase in the Indian subcontinent
started ca 5000-4000 cal yrs BP coinciding with a stepwise weakening of
the SW monsoon ... The arid phase might have intensified ca 4000-
3500 cal yrs BP as has been in the Himalayas, western peninsula and
northwestern India, and ended ca 1700 cal yrs BP, when the SW monsoon
was the driest.”24
❖ In 2008, Rita Wright et al. used models of archaeoclimatology to plot
the intensity of the monsoon and river flow in the region of Harappa.
They found that “around 3500 BC the volume of water in the rivers
increases, and the rivers flood,” until “from around 2100 BCE; the river
flow [in the Beas] begins to fall.” Around Harappa, “a 600-year period
of reduced rainfall [sets in] after 2100 BC,” leading to “an unexpected
agricultural crisis.”25 Those two dates roughly bracket the Early and
much of the Mature phases.
❖ In 2010, Prasanta Sanyal and R. Sinha synthesized a large number of
studies of the Indian Summer Monsoon across north India over long
ages; commenting on the records of lakes in the Thar Desert, they
Environmental Factors
136 The Environment and Indian History
observed that “Didwana and Lunkaransar playas were completely
desiccated at 3–4 ka.”26
❖ An international team led by Liviu Giosan studied in 2012 the climatic
as well as fluvial conditions before, during and after Harappan times.
They confirmed the now dominant view that “precipitation from both
monsoon and westerly sources that feed rivers of the western Indo-
Gangetic Plain decreased since approximately 5,000 y ago, and was at
its lowest after approximately 4,000 y BP. ... as aridity intensified,
monsoon-augmented floods became less frequent and/or less
intense.”27
❖ Also in 2012, M. Berkelhammer led an international team to study
variations in the oxygen isotopes of a stalagmite from a cave in
Meghalaya. They observed a “dramatic event ... - 4000 years ago when,
over the course of approximately a decade, isotopic values abruptly
rose above any seen during the early to mid-Holocene and remained at
this anomalous state for almost two centuries.” This suggested either
“a shift toward an earlier Indian Summer Monsoon withdrawal or a
general decline in the total amount of monsoon precipitation.” The
study’s “tight age constraints of the record show with a high degree of
certainty that much of the documented deurbanization of the Indus
Valley at 3.9 kyr B.P. occurred after multiple decades of a shift in the
monsoon’s character....”28
❖ A 2013 study by Anjum Farooqui, A.S. Gaur and Vandana Prasad of the
palaeoenvironment at two sites of southern Saurashtra showed “low
precipitation and arid climatic conditions - 2000 BCE,. During this period
the dominance of evergreen and moist deciduous arboreals from both
the sites do not show equilibrium with the prevailing dry/arid climate
and therefore, the pollen assemblage here represents the remnants of
wetter middle Holocene vegetation in the region. ... The moister climatic
conditions and comparatively rich forest cover around the Saurashtra
coast was one of the main attractive reasons for the expansion and
settlement of Harappans....”29
❖ In 2014, Yama Dixit, David A. Hodell and Cameron A. Petrie, studying
the sediments of a palaeolake in Haryana (at Kotla Dahar), detected
“ca. 4.1 ka marking a peak in the evaporation/precipitation ratio in the
137
lake catchment related to weakening of the ISM [Indian Summer
Monsoon] ..., suggesting that climate may have played a role in the
Indus cultural transformation. ... Taken together, the records from Kotla
Dahar, Mawmuluh [in northeast India], and the Arabian Sea provide
strong evidence for a widespread weakening of the ISM across large
parts of India at ca. 4.2–4.0 ka. The monsoon recovered to the modernday
conditions after 4.0 k.y. ago, and the event lasted for ~200 yr
(ca. 4.2–4.0 ka) in this region.”30
More studies have been quoted on both sides.31 It is understandable
that focusing on different regions and using different approaches
(sediments, pollen, plankton, palaeowaters, etc.) should lead to apparently
diverging results. Nevertheless, the trend of most recent studies has been
to observe “a decrease in the strength of the Southwest monsoon about
4000 cal yr BP,”32 that is, towards the end of the urban Harappan phase.
For example, Dorian Q. Fuller, while cautioning against hasty conclusions,33
points to a series of “marked events of sudden aridity,”34 with the last one
taking place around 2200 BCE, the severe worldwide drought I mentioned
above:
A climatic event cannot be blamed simplistically for [Harappan]
collapse and de-urbanisation, but Quaternary science data make it
clear that we cannot accept a view of climatic and environmental
stability since the mid-Holocene in the region (as promoted by
Possehl ...).35
This may now be regarded as the current consensus, quite in tune
with the worldwide drought noted at the start of this paper. It is clear that
this prolonged period of reduced rainfall must have considerably strained
the Harappans’ monsoon- and flood-dependent agricultural production.
Circumstantial evidence
Early archaeologists pointed to the extensive use of baked bricks at
Mohenjo-daro, Chanhu-daro and Harappa as a clue that climate was
wetter; it was answered (by Mortimer Wheeler,36 for instance) that baked
bricks were more likely a flood-mitigating device. The depictions on Indus
seals of animals like the elephant, the tiger, the rhinoceros or the water
buffalo were seen as so many clues to a moister and greener environment;
it was objected in reply that the depiction of a particular animal did not
Environmental Factors
138 The Environment and Indian History
prove its existence at the site, and that the above-mentioned animals were
still seen in parts of the Indus valley till recent decades or centuries.
However, positive evidence emerged at Kalibangan in the form
of bone remains of the elephant, the one-horned rhinoceros (recently
confirmed at Karanpura, also in Rajasthan37), the water buffalo and the
river turtle. In Bhola Nath’s opinion, “the remains of these animals show
that the climate at that time was more humid than the arid climate of
present day.”38 The presence of the rhinoceros, in particular, “strengthens
the geological evidence that the desert conditions of this area are of recent
origin.”39 Similar evidence came from Gujarat, where P.K. Thomas observed
that the animal
is identified from a large number of Harappan and Chalcolithic
sites ... [and] inhabited a major part of the Gujarat plains in the
protohistoric period. ... The identification of large herbivores like
rhinoceros, wild buffalo and probably wild cattle at many of the
Gujarat Harappan sites suggests that the ecological conditions were
more congenial for animal life during the protohistoric period in
Gujarat.40
These considerations clearly point to a greener environment during
the urban phase. If so, could human activities have played a part in its
degradation? Mortimer Wheeler’s suggested that the Harappans were
“wearing out [the] landscape”41 by overexploitation of their natural
resources, particularly forests, for their brick, pottery, bronze and sealmaking
industries; intensive agriculture for the consumption of the city
dwellers combined with overgrazing by numerous herds of cattle and goats
would have added to the pressure on an already strained environment.
Walter Fairservis attempted a calculation of the amount of fodder consumed
by the cattle used by Mohenjo-daro both as a source of food (dairy products
and meat) and for ploughing. His conclusion was:
The inhabitants of the mature period at Mohenjodaro would have
grown only about one-fourth of their fodder needs. It follows that
the remaining three-quarters had to be obtained by foraging in the
surrounding forests and grasslands. This formidable assault on the
indigenous flora most certainly affected the ecology and had an
adverse effect on the land and aided the spread of the active
floodplain.42
139
The Sarasvati
An important environmental change affecting the Indus-Sarasvati
Civilization in its eastern domain was the desiccation of the Ghaggar-
Hakra system, which was home to some 360 sites of the Mature Harappan
period,43 the best known of which include (from east to west) Farmana,
Rakhigarhi, Banawali, Bhirrana, Kalibangan and Ganweriwala. This river
system located in the Yamuna-Sutlej interfluve, and identified since the
mid-nineteenth century by generations of geographers, geologists,
Indologists and archaeologists with the Sarasvati River of the Rig-Veda,
dried up in stages, probably owing to a tectonic uplift of its basin, which
deprived it of contributions from the Sutlej and the Yamuna, leaving
only seasonal streams in its upper reaches.44 As V.N. Misra put it,
“The large number of protohistoric settlements, dating from c. 4000 BCE to
1500 BCE, could have flourished along this river only if it was flowing
perennially.”45
Studies of settlement patterns have showed that between 2000
and 1900 BCE, the central basin of the Ghaggar basin was deserted by the
Mature Harappans; thus Kalibangan, in northern Rajasthan, has no Late
phase. A crowding of Late Harappan settlements took place in following
centuries along the Shivaliks’ foothills, besides migrations eastward into
the Ganges Valley and possibly southward to the Aravallis and the
Vindhyas.
Recent geological studies have broadly confirmed this scenario
sketched in the early 1980s.46 In 2009, H.S. Saini et al. studied buried channels
in the northwestern Haryana Plains and documented “the existence of
channel activity during the mid-Holocene ... in a part of the Haryana plains”;
by mid-Holocene is meant a “second fluvial phase ... represented by a
palaeochannel segment whose signatures are dated between ~ 6.0 and
~ 2.9 Ka,”47 after which a depleted Ghaggar was left. The dates bracket the
Indus civilization.
The same year, reviewing findings on the Ghaggar-Hakra, Peter
Clift concluded, “Provisional age data now show that between 2000 and
3000 BCE, flow along a presently dried-up course known as the Ghaggur-
Hakkra River ceased, probably driven by the weakening monsoon and
possibly also because of headwater capture into the adjacent Yamuna and
Sutlej Rivers.”48
Environmental Factors
140 The Environment and Indian History
The above-mentioned 2012 study led by Liviu Giosan (of which
Clift is a co-author), apart from confirming a steep decline in the summer
monsoon circa 2000 BCE, observed, “The most spectacular case of climatecontrolled
landscape transformation is the Ghaggar-Hakra system, which
became ephemeral and was largely abandoned.”49 In a later comment on
their paper, Giosan et al. clarified, “Our research points to a perennial
monsoonal-fed Sarasvati river system with benign floods along its
course.”50
There is thus a broad consensus here too, although these last two
studies have cast doubt on the existence of glacial sources for the Ghaggar
in Mature Harappan times, reducing it to a rain-fed river. This was strongly
refuted in 2013 by K.S. Valdiya51 and further defended by Giosan et al.,52
but as the issue ultimately makes little difference to the existence of
a perennial river during Harappan times – albeit one already on the decline
and of modest dimensions – we may leave this debate out of the present
discussion.
Regionwise Discussion
As far back as in 1968, Wheeler wrote presciently, “The decline and
fall of an immense, evolved and, on any showing, long-lived civilization
as that of the Indus valley archaeological are inevitably a tangled and
contentious problem. ... For a civilization so widely distributed as that of
the Indus no uniform ending need be postulated.”53 More recently, Yama
Dixit et al. put it thus: “The Indus settlements spanned a diverse range of
environmental and ecological zones; therefore, correlation of evidence
for climate change and the decline of Indus urbanism requires a
comprehensive assessment of the relationship between settlement and
climate across a substantial area.”54
This should be warning enough against proposing a single
environmental mechanism – reduction of the monsoon or the loss of the
Sarasvati – for the final break-up of the Harappan urban order. Yet it is
tempting to propose the following regionwise possibilities, albeit as a
speculation:
❖ In the eastern region, the desiccation of the central Sarasvati basin
accelerated towards 2000 BCE, leading to its almost complete
141
abandonment and a concentration of Late sites at the foot of the
Shivalik Hills, in the Ganga–Yamuna Doab, and in Cholistan.55 This
loss of one of the two major lifelines of this civilization must have
been a major factor in its deurbanization. As Dilip Chakrabarti puts
it, “To a considerable extent the process [of weakening of the
political fabric of the Indus civilization] must have been linked to
the hydrographic changes in the Sarasvati-Drishadvati system.”56
Whether or not the loss of the river system was caused by a long
drought, the two phenomena together certainly compounded the
severity of the situation, as might have an overuse of natural
resources.
❖ The Indus basin suffered no such loss, perhaps in fact more destructive
floods if, as has been assumed, the part of the Sutlej that flowed into
the Sarasvati shifted to the Beas, eventually swelling the Indus’s
waters: “An increase in water and sediment discharge of that
magnitude [provoked by the westward shift of the Sutlej] would have
had dramatic effects downstream in the Lower Indus Basin,”57 according
to Louis Flam. This might help explain the near complete absence of
Late Harappan sites in this region: they may have been either washed
away or buried under sediments.
❖ On the Makran coast, Harappan outposts like Sutkagen-dor and
Balakot are now over 50 km inland. G.F. Dales, who excavated Balakot,
suggested that “a sudden rise in the Arabian Sea coastline of West
Pakistan apparently took place sometime around the middle of the
second millennium. This resulted in a disastrous increase in the already
serious floods in the major river valleys....”58 There is independent
geomorphologic evidence of relatively rapid uplifts of the Makran
coast,59 which perhaps left these Harappan ports high and dry,
disrupting their trading functions.
❖ The Rann of Kachchh has an environmental history of its own. Home to
several sites including Dholavira, its northern border may have been
part of the Sarasvati’s estuary (the present Nara channel). There is also
archaeological60 as well as textual evidence that the Rann was, in Mature
Harappan times, a “shallow arm of the sea,”61 and therefore navigable
(Greek records suggest that it was still partly so in the first century
BCE62). It ceased to be so probably owing to tectonic uplift and a lowering
Environmental Factors
142 The Environment and Indian History
of the sea level. Be that as it may, if at some point the “metropolis” and
major trading centre that Dholavira was found itself cut off from the
sea route, its very survival as a city must have been challenged.
❖ Similarly, satellite photography and sedimental studies have shown
that the sea level near Lothal was higher in the third millennium than
it is today, lending strong support to the interpretation of the site’s
huge basin as a “dockyard.”63 A receding shoreline may have spelt
doom for the town’s maritime function.
❖ The rest of the Gujarat domain of the Indus-Sarasvati civilization,
together with northern Maharashtra, was not affected by changes in the
Sarasvati and the Indus basins, or by the retreat of the Arabian Sea, but
would have felt the impact of the 2200 BCE drought. More so, it would
have been affected by the disruption of the trade networks in the other
regions, which probably led to a collapse of the Harappan industries.
Other possible contributing factors include disruptions in
commercial exchanges with the Iranian plateau, Magan, Dilmun,
Mesopotamia and BMAC, socioeconomic tensions, sheer geographical
overstretch, and a falling apart of the various Harappan regions.64
Taking all factors discussed above together, it is difficult on
current evidence to decide which ones are causative and which ones
contributory. However, it now seems firmly established that climatic and
environmental disruptions played a major part in the decline and final
break-up of the Indus civilization. Environmentalists have been warning
that Ganga may turn into a seasonal river in the 21st century; we must
hope that, despite current trends, wisdom will prevail and all mitigating
steps will be taken to make sure that the twenty-first century CE does not
turn out to be a repetition – of course on a much larger scale – of the
twenty-first century BCE.
References & Notes
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143
3. Booth, R. K., et al. 2005. “A severe centennial-scale drought in midcontinental
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Probsthain, London, vol. 1, p. 2.
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8. Much of the evidence presented below was listed in Danino, Michel. 2014.
“Climate and Environment in the Indus-Sarasvati Civilization,” in Banerjee,
Arundhati, (ed.), Ratnasri: Gleanings from Indian Archaeology, Art History
and Indology (Papers Presented in Memory of Dr. N.R. Banerjee), Kaveri
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Sarasvati Civilization”, for Archaeology and Tradition, Prof. D.N. Tripathi
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14. Courty, Marie-Agnès. 1989. “Integration of sediment and soil information
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and Palaeoclimatology of the Thar Dune Field” in Zeitschrift für
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reproduced in Radhakrishnan, B.P. & S.S. Merh, (eds). 1999. Vedic Sarasvati:
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of India, Bangalore, p. 222.
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21. Von Rad, Ulrich, et al. 1999. “A 5000-yr Record of Climate Change in Varved
Sediments from the Oxygen Minimum Zone off Pakistan, Northeastern
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22. Phadtare, Netajirao R. 2000. “Sharp Decrease in Summer Monsoon Strength
4000-3500 cal yr B.P. in the Central Higher Himalaya of India Based
on Pollen Evidence from Alpine Peat,” Quaternary Research, vol. 53,
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23. Staubwasser, M., et al. 2003. “Climate change at the 4.2 ka BP termination
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variability,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 30, no. 8, p. 1425.
24. Gupta, Anil K., et al. 2006. “Adaptation and human migration, and evidence
of agriculture coincident with changes in the Indian summer monsoon
during the Holocene,” Current Science, vol. 90, no. 8, pp. 1082–1090.
145
25. Wright, Rita P., et al. 2008. “Water supply and history: Harappa and the
Beas regional survey,” Antiquity, vol. 82, pp. 37–48.
26. Sanyal, Prasanta, & R. Sinha. 2010. “Evolution of the Indian summer
monsoon: synthesis of continental records”, in Clift, P.D., R. Tada & H. Zheng,
(eds), Monsoon Evolution and Tectonics–Climate Linkage in Asia, Geological
Society, London, Special Publications, 342, pp. 153–183.
27. Giosan, Liviu, et al. 2012. “Fluvial landscapes of the Harappan civilization”,
PNAS, E1688–E1694 (published online May 29, 2012).
28. Berkelhammer, M., A. Sinha, L. Stott, H. Cheng, F. S. R. Pausata, &
K. Yoshimura. 2012. “An Abrupt Shift in the Indian Monsoon 4000 Years
Ago”, in Giosan, Liviu, et al., (eds), Climates, Landscapes, and Civilizations,
Geophysical Monograph Series 198, American Geophysical Union,
Washington DC, pp. 75–87.
29. Farooqui, Anjum, et al. 2013. “Climate, vegetation and ecology during
Harappan period: excavations at Kanjetar and Kaj, mid-Saurashtra coast,
Gujarat,” Journal of Archaeological Science, no. 40, pp. 2631–2647.
30. Dixit, Yama, D. A. Hodell & C. A. Petrie. 2014. “Abrupt weakening of the
summer monsoon in northwest India ~ 4100 yr ago,” Geology, 42(4),
pp. 339–342.
31. For recent reviews, see those discussed in Madella, Marco, & Dorian
Q. Fuller. 2006. “Palaeoecology and the Harappan Civilisation of South
Asia: a reconsideration,” op. cit.; Fuller, Dorian Q., & Marco Madella. 2000.
“Issues in Harappan Archaeobotany: Retrospect and Prospect,” in Settar, S.,
& Ravi Korisettar, (eds), Indian Archaeology in Retrospect, vol. 2: Protohistory,
Archaeology of the Harappan Civilization, Manohar & Indian Council of
Historical Research, New Delhi, pp. 317–390; Korisettar, Ravi & R. Ramesh.
2002. “The Indian Monsoon: Roots, Relations and Relevance,” in Settar, S.,
& Ravi Korisettar, (eds), Indian Archaeology in Retrospect, vol. 3: Archaeology
and Interactive Disciplines, Manohar & Indian Council of Historical Research,
New Delhi, pp. 23–59.
32. Phadtare, Netajirao R. 2000. “Sharp Decrease in Summer Monsoon
Strength 4000–3500 cal yr B.P. in the Central Higher Himalaya of India
Based on Pollen Evidence from Alpine Peat,” Quaternary Research, vol. 53,
pp. 122–129.
33. Fuller, Dorian Q., & Marco Madella. 2000. “Issues in Harappan
Archaeobotany: Retrospect and Prospect,” op. cit., pp. 363 & 366.
34. Fuller, Dorian Q. 2008. “Neolithic Cultures,” in Pearsall, Deborah M., (ed.),
Encyclopedia of Archaeology, Academic Press, New York, pp. 756–768.
Environmental Factors
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35. Madella, Marco, & Dorian Q. Fuller. 2006. “Palaeoecology and the Harappan
Civilisation of South Asia: a reconsideration,” op. cit., p. 1283.
36. Wheeler, Mortimer. 1968. The Indus Civilization, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, 3rd edn, p. 8.
37. Prabhakar, V.N. 2014. Personal communication.
38. Nath, Bhola. 1969. “The Role of Animal Remains in the Early Prehistoric
Cultures of India,” Indian Museum Bulletin, Calcutta, p. 107; quoted by Jagat
Pati Joshi in Lal, B.B., et al. 2003. Excavations at Kalibangan, Archaeological
Survey of India, New Delhi, vol. 1, p. 19.
39. Banerjee, S., & S. Chakraborty. 1973. “Remains of the great one-horned
Rhinoceros, Rhinoceros unicornis, Linnacus from Rajasthan,” Science and
Culture, vol. 39, Calcutta, pp. 430–431, quoted by Jagat Pati Joshi in Lal, B.B.,
et al. 2003. Excavations at Kalibangan, op. cit., p. 18.
40. Thomas, P. K., “Investigations into the Archaeofauna of Harappan Sites in
Western India,” in Settar, S., & Ravi Korisettar, (eds), Indian Archaeology in
Retrospect, vol. 2: Protohistory, Archaeology of the Harappan Civilization,
op. cit., pp. 414 & 417.
41. Wheeler, Mortimer. 1968. The Indus Civilization, op. cit., p. 127.
42. Fairservis, Walter A. 1967. “The Origin, Character and Decline of an Early
Civilization,” Novitates, 1967, 2302:1–48, partly reproduced in Lahiri,
Nayanjot, (ed.). 2000. The Decline and Fall of the Indus, Permanent Black,
New Delhi, p. 261.
43. Danino, Michel. 2010. The Lost River: On the Trail of the Sarasvati, Penguin,
New Delhi, p. 139.
44. On the Sarasvati River, see (chronologically): Misra, V.N., “Climate, a Factor
in the Rise and Fall of the Indus Civilization: Evidence from Rajasthan and
Beyond” in Lal, B.B. & S.P. Gupta, (eds). 1984. Frontiers of the Indus Civilization,
Books and Books, New Delhi, pp. 461–89; Misra, V.N., “Indus Civilization
and the Rgvedic Sarasvati,” in Parpola, Asko & Petteri Koskikallio, (eds).
1994. South Asian Archaeology 1993, Suomalainen Tiedeakatemia, Helsinki,
vol. II, pp. 511–525; Radhakrishnan, B.P. & S.S. Merh, (eds). 1999. Vedic
Sarasvati: Evolutionary History of a Lost River of Northwestern India, Geological
Society of India, Bangalore, especially for Herbert Wilhelmy, “The Ancient
River Valley on the Eastern Border of the Indus Plain and the Sarasvati
Problem,” pp. 95–111; Valdiya, K.S. 2002. Saraswati, the River that Disappeared,
Indian Space Research Organization & Universities Press, Hyderabad; Lal,
B.B. 2002. The Sarasvati Flows On: The Continuity of Indian Culture, Aryan Books
International, New Delhi; Kalyanaraman, S., (ed.). 2008. Vedic River Sarasvati
and Hindu Civilization, Aryan Books International, New Delhi, & Sarasvati
147
Research and Education Trust, Chennai; Chakrabarti, Dilip K. & Sukhdev
Saini. 2009. The Problem of the Sarasvati River and Notes on the Archaeological
Geography of Haryana and Indian Panjab, Aryan Books International,
New Delhi. For an attempted synthesis: Danino, Michel. 2010. The Lost River:
On the Trail of the Sarasvati, Penguin, New Delhi.
45. Misra, V. N. 1994. “Indus Civilization and the Rgvedic Sarasvati,” op. cit.,
p. 515.
46. Joshi, J. P., Madhu Bala & Jassu Ram. 1984. “The Indus Civilization: A
Reconsideration on the Basis of Distribution Maps,” in Lal, B.B. & S.P. Gupta,
(eds). 1984. Frontiers of the Indus Civilization, op. cit., pp. 511–530.
47. Saini, H. S., S. K. Tandon, S. A. I. Mujtaba, N. C. Pant and R. K. Khorana.
2009. “Reconstruction of buried channel-floodplain systems of the
northwestern Haryana Plains and their relation to the ‘Vedic’ Saraswati,”
Current Science, 97(11), pp. 1634–43.
48. Clift, Peter. 2009. “Harappan Collapse”, Geoscientist, 19(9), pp. 18–22.
49. Giosan, Liviu, et al. 2012. “Fluvial landscapes of the Harappan civilization”,
PNAS, E1688–E1694 (published online May 29, 2012).
50. Giosan, Liviu, Peter D. Clift, Mark G. Macklin, Dorian Q. Fuller. 2013.
“Sarasvati II,” Current Science, 105(7), pp. 888–810.
51. Valdiya, K. S. 2013. “The River Saraswati was a Himalayan-born river,”
Current Science, 104(1), pp. 42–54.
52. Giosan, Liviu, Peter D. Clift, Mark G. Macklin, Dorian Q. Fuller. 2013.
“Sarasvati II,” op. cit.
53. Wheeler, Mortimer. 1968. The Indus Civilization, op. cit., p. 126.
54. Dixit, Yama, D. A. Hodell & C. A. Petrie. 2014. Abrupt weakening of the
summer monsoon in northwest India ~ 4100 yr ago, Geology (published online
24 February 2014).
55. See references in endnote no. 41 above.
56. Chakrabarti, Dilip K. 1997. The Archaeology of Ancient Indian Cities, Oxford
University Press, New Delhi, p. 140.
57. Flam, Louis. 1999. “The Prehistoric Indus River System and the Indus
Civilization in Sindh,” Man and Environment, 24(2), p. 55.
58. Dales, George F. 1964. “The Mythical Massacre at Mohenjodaro,” Expedition
6(3), pp. 36–43, reproduced in Lahiri, Nayanjot, (ed.). 2000. The Decline and
Fall of the Indus, op. cit., p. 81.
59. Snead, Rodman E. 1967. “Recent Morphological Changes along the Coast of
West Pakistan,” Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 57(3),
pp. 550–565. (My thanks to Prof. R.N. Iyengar for drawing my attention to
this paper.)
Environmental Factors
148 The Environment and Indian History
60. Gaur, A. S., K. H. Vora, Sundaresh, R. Mani Murali & S. Jayakumar, “Was
the Rann of Kachchh navigable during the Harappan times (Mid-Holocene)?
An archaeological perspective”, Current Science, vol. 105, no. 11, 10 December
2013, pp. 1485–91.
61. Mathur, U. B. 2002. “Chronology of Harappan Port Towns of Gujarat in the
Light of Sea Level Changes during the Holocene,” Man and Environment, 27(2),
p. 64.
62. Periplus of the Erythrean Sea, see quotation and discussion in Iyengar, R.N. &
B.P. Radhakrishna. 2007. “Geographical Location of Vedic Irina in Southern
Rajasthan,” Journal of the Geological Society of India, vol. 70, pp. 699–705.
63. Khadkikar, A. S., et al. 2004. “Palaeogeography around the Harappan port
of Lothal, Gujarat, western India,” Antiquity, 78(302), pp. 896–903.
64. Useful discussions of possible causes of the end of the urban Harappan phase
can be found in Lal, B.B. 1997. The Earliest Civilization of South Asia, Aryan
Books International, New Delhi, ch. 14; Possehl, Gregory L. 2002. The Indus
Civilization: A Contemporary Perspective, op. cit., ch. 13; Chakrabarti, Dilip K.
2006. The Oxford Companion to Indian Archaeology: The Archaeological
Foundations of Ancient India, Oxford University Press, New Delhi, ch. 11;
Lahiri, Nayanjot, (ed.). 2000. The Decline and Fall of the Indus, op. cit.
https://www.academia.edu/27920320/Environmental_Factors_in_the_Decline_of_the_Indus-Sarasvati_Civilization