A snub for China, North Korea nuclear test shows Beijing’s waning influence
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying says China opposes the North Korean nuclear test during a briefing at the Chinese Foreign Ministry in Beijing. (Ng Han Guan/AP)BEIJING — It was a snub to China, and a signal that Beijing’s influence is waning.
North Korea may have explained Wednesday’s reported hydrogen bomb test as a response to U.S. “hostility,” but experts say it may more accurately reflect deteriorating relations with China.
The question now is how Beijing will respond: Not by abandoning its troublesome ally, experts agree, but perhaps by punishing it still further. Whether that would have any effect is even more in doubt.
“In a way, this is a protest against Beijing,” said Bo Zhiyue, director of the New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre at the Victoria University of Wellington. “They are saying: ‘we can do whatever we want. This shows our independence and we don’t need your approval.’”
If North Korea’s claim is true, its fourth nuclear bomb test and first hydrogen bomb explosion would mark a significant step forward in its nuclear capability, and a major challenge to the outside world — including to China which has long expressed its displeasure with Pyongyang’s nuclear program.
On Wednesday, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said North Korea had “ignored” objections from the international community. “China firmly opposes this,” it said in a statement. “We urge North Korea to fulfill its promise of denuclearization, and stop any actions that would worsen the situation.”
Spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a regular news conference that Beijing had not been warned in advance of the test and would summon the North Korean ambassador in Beijing to lodge a protest.
But experts say Beijing’s influence over Pyongyang has waned since Kim Jong Un took over in North Korea at the end of 2011 and Xi Jinping became president of China in 2013. The two men have not met since then, with Xi even snubbing his counterpart by visiting South Korea first in 2014.
In October, there was talk of thaw when Xi sent an envoy to attend a military parade in Pyongyang with a signed letter carrying the Chinese president’s “best wishes” to Kim.
But relations were swiftly sent back into the deep freeze in two short days in December, when Kim declared his country had developed a hydrogen bomb. Within 48 hours, North Korea’s glamorous girl group, the Moranbong Band, abruptly packed their bags and headed home, just hours before a high-profile concert in Beijing. That was less than a month ago.
“The Moranbong Band incident basically revealed North Korea’s intentions, and you could see that communication between China and North Korea is quite bad,” said Xuan Dongri, the director of Northeast Asia Studies at Yanbian University in northeast China. “China and North Korea’s understanding of each other is deteriorating further.”
Xuan said the main target of North Korea’s nuclear test might have been the United States and South Korea, “but it also wanted to send a stronger protest message to China. North Korea wants more help from China.”
Victoria University of Wellington’s Bo said a key problem in the relationship has been the centralization of power in Beijing under President Xi.
Instead of a multi-faceted policy towards North Korea that existed under previous president Hu Jintao, with some senior leaders advocating engagement and others taking a harder line, Xi is now calling all the shots, he said, while simultaneously insisting Party officials not question his decisions publicly.
Since Xi has not met Kim, and has his hands full with other domestic and foreign policy challenges, there is little meaningful dialogue taking place, and very little internal debate on how best to influence Pyongyang, Bo said.
“You need to have a connection, if you want to convince or persuade the other side,” said Bo. ‘If you don’t have a connection, where is the leverage?”
Bo said Xi was “caught in a dilemma,” unwilling to hew closer towards the U.S. approach of isolating and punishing North Korea, but “powerless” to prevent North Korea’s nuclear program.
At the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing, Paul Haenle said that even though the North Koreans had pointed to the United States as a justification for their test, “the real attention is focused on China,” and how it will respond.
No one is expecting a complete breakdown in Sino-North Korean ties, nor are they expecting Pyongyang to abandon a nuclear program that has become a key pillar of its regime’s declared legitimacy, at least not in the foreseeable future.
“Beijing will face increased pressure both domestically and internationally to punish and rein in Kim Jong Un and to ultimately force Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons,” said Yanmei Xie, senior China analyst with the International Crisis Group in Beijing. “But there is likely to be a repeat of the worn playbook of denunciation, tightening of sanctions, and calling for resurrection of the six party talks.”
North Korea pulled out of “six-party talks” with South Korea, the United States, China, Russia and Japan over its nuclear program in 2009. On Wednesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua said those talks were “only practical and effective way to solve the North Korea problem.”
China is North Korea's largest trading partner and supplies most of its neighbor's oil and gas, as well as about half of its foreign aid. But it has been unwilling to pull the plug for fear of toppling the regime.
Haenle said China was likely to move cautiously, but did not rule out it taking a tougher line.
“I don't think we can overlook the fact that Xi is a new and fundamentally different kind of Chinese leader,” he added, citing his historic move to meet Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou in November as an example.
“While analysts have plenty of evidence to justify their assessments that China won't change course, I think we need to be open to the possibility that China could respond differently this time,” Haenle argued.
“North Korea’s defiance is not only an untenable burden on China’s image as a credible and strong leader on this issue, but will also lead to an enhanced U.S. security posture in the region and increased cooperation between the U.S. and its Asia-Pacific allies – not something Beijing wants.”
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, said the test left China no choice but to support further United Nations sanctions towards North Korea. But the Crisis Group’s Xie said nothing would be done that might upset Beijing’s bottom line.
“For Beijing, a nuclear armed North Korea is uncomfortable and disturbing, but a regime collapse in Pyongyang, leading to mass chaos next door and potentially a united Korean Peninsula with Washington extending its influence northward to China's doorstep, is downright frightening,” Xie added.
Gu Jinglu and Liu Liu contributed to this report.
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Simon Denyer is The Post’s bureau chief in China. He served previously as bureau chief in India and as a Reuters bureau chief in Washington, India and Pakistan.
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N Korea’s ‘hydrogen’ bomb test: What it means and why it’s important
- AFP |
- Updated: Jan 06, 2016 13:28 IST
This picture taken from North Korean TV and released by South Korean news agency Yonhap on January 6, 2016 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un signing a document of a hydrogen bomb test in Pyongyang. North Korea announced on January 6 it had successfully carried out its first hydrogen bomb test, a development that, if confirmed, would marking a stunning step forward in its nuclear development. (AFP)North Korea said on Wednesday it had carried out a “successful” hydrogen bomb test -- its fourth nuclear blast -- unnerving the region with its latest bout of sabre rattling.
Here are five questions about North Korea’s nuclear programme and its impact on regional diplomacy and security:
Q: Can North Korea’s claim be believed?
A. Experts broadly agree that the country probably carried out some kind of nuclear explosion but are sceptical over the “hydrogen” assertion.
The first clue that something happened came with reports of a 5.1 magnitude earthquake near the North’s nuclear test facility. North Korean state television later announced that it was a hydrogen bomb test.
But Australian nuclear policy and arms control specialist Crispin Rovere said that “the seismic data that’s been received indicates that the explosion is probably significantly below what one would expect from an H-bomb test”.
“So initially it seems to be that they’ve successfully conducted a nuclear test but unsuccessfully completed the second-stage hydrogen explosion.”
Moreover, a hydrogen bomb is a much more powerful atomic weapon and it can devastate whole cities in one explosion. Hiroshima and Nagasaki both were atomic bombs and till date Hydrogen bombs have never been used in war.
Q. What does the new test mean in terms of North Korea’s nuclear development?
A. Despite doubts over the claim it was a hydrogen bomb, it still demonstrates the country’s commitment to carrying on with its nuclear programme.
It comes after three previous nuclear explosions between 2006 and 2013 and a boast last year the regime had developed a hydrogen bomb.
Read More : Japan terms N Korea’s H-bomb test as unacceptable, significant threat to national security
North Korea is continuing with their test programme without regard to what the world thinks, Christopher Hill, former US chief negotiator to the six-party talks aimed at the North’s denuclearisation, told the BBC.
“We have a big problem regardless of how large the explosion was today,” Hill said.
Q. What does the test mean for international relations and diplomacy in Northeast Asia?
A. Most of all, it will mark a new low point in relations between North Korea and neighbouring China, which has been the country’s main diplomatic supporter for decades.
Beijing’s patience has run increasingly thin as it strongly opposes Pyongyang’s nuclear development and sees it as a factor for instability on the Korean peninsula, where it has strong trade relations with North Korean rival South Korea.
North Korea said it had successfully conducted a test of a miniaturized hydrogen nuclear device on Wednesday morning. The announcement on North Korean state TV followed detection of a 5.1 magnitude earthquake near its known nuclear test site earlier on Wednesday.
“The republic’s first hydrogen bomb test has been successfully performed at 10:00 am on January 6, 2016, based on the strategic determination of the Workers’ Party,” a state television news reader said.
Read more: Japan terms N Korea’s H-bomb test as unacceptable, significant threat to national security
The surprise announcement complicates already difficult efforts to curb the country’s push for a working nuclear arsenal. A hydrogen, or thermonuclear device, uses fusion in a chain reaction that results in a far more powerful explosion than the fission blast generated by uranium or plutonium alone.
Read more: S-Korea vows measures to make North pay price for fourth nuclear test
The fourth test was carried out after an “artificial” earthquake was detected near the country’s main nuclear testing site on Wednesday morning.
Speculation that the regime in Pyongyang had conducted a surprise nuclear test rose after seismologists from South Korea, China and other countries said they were confident the earthquakehad been caused by an explosion.
Read More: White House vows appropriate response to N. Korea ‘provocations’
Read More: White House vows appropriate response to N. Korea ‘provocations’
“Beijing will face increased pressure both domestically and internationally to punish and rein in Kim Jong-Un and to ultimately force Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons,” said Yanmei Xie, International Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst of Northeast Asia based in Beijing.
“But there is likely to be a repeat of the worn playbook of denunciation, tightening of sanctions, and calling for resurrection of the six party talks.”
Relations with South Korea are also likely to suffer, with attempts to improve dialogue and reduce tensions along their heavily fortified border to come under renewed pressure. Japan, a target of previous North Korean threats, is likely to increase its guard.
Q. Why now?
A. Kim, who has carried out numerous purges of senior officials since coming to power after the death of his father Kim Jong-Il in December 2011, is believed to constantly need to solidify his power base and demonstrate achievements even greater than those of his father and grandfather, North Korea’s founder Kim Il-Sung.
The announcement also comes just two days before his January 8 birthday and also in advance of an expected congress of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party -- the first such gathering in 35 years.
“The purpose of this is firstly to display to the world that it has acquired a new technology as to the nuclear weapons programme,” said Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor at Waseda University in Tokyo and an expert on North Korea.
“Secondly, with the (claimed) development of hydrogen nuclear weapons, Kim Jong-Un now has a ‘great achievement’ that even Kim Il-Sung or Kim Jong-Il could not realise.”
Q. What’s next?
A. Past North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile tests have been followed by condemnatory United Nations Security Council resolutions and additional sanctions.
Diplomats said that the UN Security Council is to hold an emergency meeting on North Korea on Wednesday.
“This clearly violates UN Security Council resolutions and is a grave challenge against international efforts for non-proliferation,” said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
North Korea claims to have carried out its first successful test of a hydrogen bomb.
North Korea 'hydrogen bomb test' live updates: World reacts to claims over nuclear weapon
If verified, the test will be the fourth time the state has exploded a nuclear weapon
Here are the latest updates:
- The US Geological Survey reported a 5.1 magnitude quake that South Korea said was 30 miles from the Punggye-ri site where the North has conducted nuclear tests in the past.
- An emergency UN Security Council meeting has been called.
- The White House says it cannot confirm the test, but said it would condemn such a test as a violation of UN Security Council resolutions.
- Shinzo Abe calls the claims a threat to Japan's security.
- South Korea and experts are casting doubt on whether the test was a hydrogen bomb.
If confirmed, the test would mark a significant advance in the isolated state's strike capabilities and raising alarm bells in Japan and South Korea.
The UN Security Council is planning to hold an emergency meeting to discuss the reported test, the US mission to the United Nations said.
The test, the fourth time North Korea has exploded a nuclear device, was ordered by young leader Kim Jong-Un, state media said.
“The first H-bomb test was successfully conducted at 10:00 (0130 GMT) on Wednesday,” North Korea's official KCNA news agency said.
The claim of miniaturising, which would allow the device to be adapted as a weapon and placed on a missile, would pose a new threat to the United States and its regional allies, Japan and South Korea.
- More about:
- North Korea
- Kim Jong-Un
- hydrogen bomb
- Nuclear Weapons
- http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-test-live-updates-world-reacts-to-claims-over-nuclear-weapon-a6798426.html