December 13, 2012
Russian Envoy Says Syrian Leader Is Losing Control
By ELLEN BARRY
MOSCOW — Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia’s top envoy for Syria, said on Thursday that President Bashar al-Assad’s government was losing control of the country and might be defeated by rebel forces.
“Unfortunately, it is impossible to exclude a victory of the Syrian opposition,” he said — the clearest indication to date that Russia believed Mr. Assad, a longtime strategic ally, could lose in a civil war that has claimed tens of thousands of lives.
“We must look squarely at the facts and the trend now suggests that the regime and the government in Syria are losing more and more control and more and more territory,” said Mr. Bogdanov, in remarks to Russia’s Public Chamber carried by Russian news agencies.
Russia, Mr. Bogdanov said, is preparing to evacuate its citizens — a complex task, since for decades, Russian women have married Syrian men sent to study in Russia and returned home with them to raise families. It was the first time an official at Mr. Bogdanov’s level had announced plans for an evacuation, which sent a clear message to Damascus that Russia no longer holds out hope that the government can prevail.
As the Russian official spoke, fresh evidence emerge of the intensity of the battle and its proximity to the capital, Damascus.
Syrian state media and anti-government activists reported that at least 16 people had been killed when a car bomb exploded near a school in the town of Qatana, southwest of the capital, on Thursday.
The bomb wounded more than 20 people, leaving some in critical condition, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks the conflict through a network of activists. Government forces still hold sway in Qatana, a town with a Sunni Muslim majority and Christian minority, Agence France-Presse reported.
The number of car bombs in residential areas appears to have increased in recent weeks, hitting neighborhoods perceived as housing many government supporters as well as others considered sympathetic to the uprising.
Agence France-Press also reported that Interior Minister Mohamed Ibrahim al-Shaar was wounded in a bomb attack on his ministry on Wednesday. But he was not seriously hurt, the agency said, quoting an unidentified security source who said that the bombing was believed to have been carried out by a saboteur because only official vehicles can approach the building.
Mr. Shaar was injured in an earlier bombing on July 18 that killed four senior security officials at a Damascus headquarters. Russia is eager to protect its strategic interests in Syria, including a naval facility at the port of Tartus, and has been meeting frequently with opposition delegations, presumably laying the groundwork for a possible transition. In his remarks to the Public Chamber, a Kremlin advisory group, Mr. Bogdanov said he believed that half the Russian citizens living in Syria support the rebels.
“Moreover, some of the people coming here as part of opposition coalitions have Russian passports,” he said.
Russia has cast its stance on Syria as a principled stand against Western-led intervention — a passionate topic for President Vladimir V. Putin, who feels Russia was deceived into supporting a no-fly zone in Libya that ultimately led to a military campaign that led to the overthrow of Col. Moammar el-Qadaffi. In recent days, Moscow has been adamant that its fundamental position has not changed.
For many months, the Russian authorities have resisted Western pressure on Moscow to persuade the Syrian leader to step down. Though Russia has said it supports the creation of a transitional government, it has been at odds with the West on whether Mr. Assad — and his ally Iran — would have a voice in it.
Mr. Bogdanov said on Thursday that Russia’s stance has been deliberately distorted in the Western media, an effort “intended to weaken our influence” in the Middle East, and that third-party governments have strengthened rebel forces by providing weapons.
“Massive supply of modern armaments have pushed the Syrian rebels to stake their hopes on force,” leading to “an acceleration of the spiral of violence,” he said.
Leonid Medvedko, a political analyst who covered Syria for Soviet news services, said officials have so far been reluctant to declare an evacuation of Russian citizens “because there are technical questions, political questions — because it will mean we are fully giving up Syria.”
“It is a humanitarian step, but each humanitarian step has a political meaning,” he said.
From the first, Russia has taken the view that Mr. Assad’s departure would usher in a long and chaotic process of fragmentation in Syria, but most experts this week said they were braced for the beginning of that process. Mr. Medvedko, the former journalist, said he expected Syria to split into four parts that would be home to distinct ethnic and religious groups, much as Yugoslavia did in the 1990s.
Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in Global Affairs and head of an influential policy group, said that even if Mr. Assad left the country, his countrymen will keep fighting.
“The prevailing view is that it will be complete and desperate chaos,” said Mr. Lukyanov. “To remove Assad will not mean settlement of the Syrian conflict. You can remove him — I don’t know in which way — but what will you do to 300,000 Alawites? They will be fighting for their lives, not for power anymore,” he said, referring to the minority sect that rules the country.
Anne Barnard contributed reporting from Beirut, Lebanon.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/14/world/middleeast/russian-envoy-says-syrian-leader-is-losing-control.html?hp
13 December 2012 Last updated at 12:14 GMT
Syria government 'losing control' - Russian official
Victory for the Syrian opposition could 'not be ruled out', Mr Bogdanov saidA Russian official has said for the first time that the Syrian government may be defeated by opposition forces.
President Bashar al-Assad's forces are "losing more and more control and territory", deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov said on Thursday.
Russia was also making plans for a possible evacuation of thousands of its citizens in Syria, Mr Bogdanov said.
Russia has been one of the staunchest international allies of Mr Assad's government.
"Unfortunately, we cannot rule out the victory of the Syrian opposition," Mr Bogdanov said.
Russia, along with China, has used its veto at the UN Security Council to block resolutions condemning the Syrian government's use of violence.
'Unacceptable price'
Mr Bogdanov repeated Russia's call for dialogue between the two sides, predicting that the fighting would grow more intense.
He said tens, possibly hundreds of thousands of people would be killed if that happened.
"If such a price for ousting the president seems acceptable to you, then what can we do? We consider it unacceptable," he said.
Mr Bogdanov also raised concerns about "extremists" seizing chemical weapons arsenals, according to the Interfax news agency.
Western nations have in recent days raised the prospect of Syrian government forces themselves using chemical weapons.
Mr Bogdanov's comments do not mean Moscow has changed its official position, the BBC's Steve Rosenberg in Moscow reports.
Russia still maintains that the ousting of President Assad would deepen the conflict, but this is the first time Russia has publicly acknowledged that the Syrian president faces possible defeat, our correspondent adds.
At a meeting in Morocco on Wednesday, more than 100 countries recognised an opposition coalition as the sole "legitimate representative" of the Syrian people.
On Tuesday the US had taken the step of recognising the National Coalition, drawing a sharp response from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
The US had decided to place all its bets on the coalition achieving an "armed victory", Mr Lavrov said.
State TV broadcast footage of the aftermath of the blast in QatanaIn Syria itself, state-run news agency Sana reported a blast in the Damascus suburb of Qatana which it said killed 16 people, including seven children.
On Wednesday, state media said six people died in blasts at or near the interior and government ministries in outlying areas of Damascus.
Violence has been increasing in and around the capital in recent weeks as rebels try to close in on the city. Government forces have mounted severe bombardments of areas with a rebel presence.
On Wednesday, US media quoted American officials as saying "Scud-type missiles" had been fired at rebels.
State department spokeswoman Victoria said that the US had also seen the deployment of a "napalm-like" bomb that was "completely indiscriminate".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20710561