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As rivals falter, India's economy is surging ahead -- Keith Bradsher. NaMo, declare kaalaadhan nationalised in 2015 Budget.

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As Rivals Falter, India’s Economy Is Surging Ahead



An industrial project under construction in Pune. Some economists predict India's growth could surpass China's next year. Credit
Atul Loke for The New York Times
SRIPERUMBUDUR, India — China’s economy is slowing. Brazil is struggling as commodity prices plunge. Russia, facing Western sanctions and weak oil revenue, is headed into a recession.
As other big developing markets stumble, India is emerging as one of the few hopes for global growth.
The stock market and rupee are surging. Multinational companies are looking to expand their Indian operations or start new ones. The growth in India’s economy, long a laggard, just matched China’s pace in recent months.
India is riding high on the early success of Prime Minister Narendra Modiand a raft of new business-friendly policies instituted in his first eight months.
Small factories no longer need to shut down every year for government inspectors to spend a day checking boilers. Foreign investment rules have been relaxed for insurers, military contractors and real estate companies. A broad tax overhaul is underway.
Renewed optimism from outside investors is spurring business expansion in cities around the country like Tiruppur, a hub of India’s yarn and textile industry. “Most of the factories in Tiruppur are doubling or tripling their capacity, and these are huge factories,” said Pritam Sanghai, the director of Arjay Apparel Industries.
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Brighter Prospects

As multinationals look to expand their Indian operations or start new ones, the country’s manufacturers are increasingly upbeat about new orders.
NEW ORDERS
Purchasing Manufacturers’ Index for new orders
65
60
United
States
55
India
Global
China
50
45
2013
2014
Whether India’s momentum is short-lived or sustainable hinges on whether Mr. Modi can push through deeper reforms, including addressing the persistent poverty and corruption that plague the economy. Lacking the necessary political support to overhaul legislation quickly, he has largely relied on temporary measures to make changes.
His party lost badly in recent local elections in Delhi. The next test comes later this month. The government is set to present its full-year budget to Parliament and lay out an agenda for taming chronic deficits while increasing investment, bolstering manufacturing and building modern highways and ports.
India, in part, is benefiting from favorable economic winds, the same ones wreaking havoc in Russia, Venezuela and elsewhere.
The country’s reliance on imported oil, for example, has been its bane for decades. By last summer, oil was a $100 billion drag on the economy, roughly 5 percent of the entire country’s economic output.
With crude prices now halved, fuel costs for trucks and cars have plunged, pulling down transport expenses and inflation. The cost of government fuel subsidies has nose-dived, helping curb the country’s chronic budget deficits.
“We’ve got essentially a $50 billion gift for the economy,” said Raghuram G. Rajan, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India.
India is also profiting from the troubles of other emerging markets.
China’s investigations of multinationals, persistent tensions with neighboring countries and surging blue-collar wages have prompted many companies to start looking elsewhere for large labor forces.
Big companies like General Motors have recently moved their international or Asia headquarters from Shanghai to Singapore as they expand further into India and its main rival as an alternative to China, Indonesia.
Photo
Land disputes are still common. Villagers demanding higher prices for their land blocked a Boeing project for two years. CreditAtul Loke for The New York Times
Mary T. Barra, the chief executive of G.M., came to Pune in western India last September to oversee the start of Chevrolet exports from there to Chile. She is also scouting for opportunities to expand in India’s auto market, which the company predicts will be one of the world’s three largest by 2020.
“All the circumstances have come together to make manufacturing and growth happen,” said Shailesh V. Haribhakti, the chairman of MentorCap Management, a boutique investment bank in Mumbai.
As India’s fortunes begin to shift, Mr. Modi is trying to tackle thornier economic issues.
He wants to expand the private sector’s role in coal mining, a government-dominated industry. He is looking to accelerate the construction of roads and other infrastructure. On the tax front, Mr. Modi hopes gradually to replace state taxes on goods that cross state borders with a national tax.
In a January visit to New Delhi, President Obama highlighted chronic regulatory obstacles in India. “There are still too many barriers — hoops to jump through, bureaucratic restrictions — that make it hard to start a business, or to export, to import, to close a deal, deliver on a deal.” But Mr. Obama acknowledged the country’s progress, saying, “Prime Minister Modi has initiated reforms that will help overcome some of these barriers.”
The challenges are significant.
The World Bank recently ranked India as the 142nd-hardest place to do business out of 189 countries.
Legal disputes, often involving land, can bog down even the most sought-after projects. A Boeing aircraft maintenance center is only now close to opening after a two-year delay in construction of a crucial taxiway, caused by villagers who lay down in front of bulldozers until the state government paid them more for a 200-yard strip of land.
Would-be builders of large factories also worry about India’s stringent labor laws, including essentially lifetime employment guarantees for unskilled or semiskilled workers with at least two years’ experience.
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Divergent Paths

The supply of 15- to 24-year-olds, the prime age for factory workers in emerging markets, is rising in India. By contrast, it is plunging in China because of the “one child” policy, and a sharp increase in college attendance has made the problem more acute.
YOUTH POPULATION
Both sexes, ages 15 to 24
250
million
India
200
China
150
100
50
PROJECTIONS
0
’95
’00
’05
’10
’15
’19
Nokia and Foxconn Technology of Taiwan suspended production late last year at an eight-year-old cellphone manufacturing complex here in southern India. Nokia is dealing with a $365 million tax dispute that started under Mr. Modi’s predecessor, as well as slowing demand for the older models of cellphones that the complex produced.
Foxconn faced hundreds of young workers who held a one-day hunger strike on Jan. 27. The company offered them 22 months’ severance. They wanted six years’ severance, and ended up settling last Thursday for roughly three years.
Rohini, a 25-year-old Foxconn worker who earned $220 a month at one of the factories in the complex, said she had been saving money from the job to create a dowry that would make her a better marriage prospect. So she was devastated when she heard from a co-worker that they would lose their jobs.
“I felt both anger and sadness. I cried a lot,” she said. “I know that according to the law, I must be given employment until age 58,” said Rohini, who, like many people in Southeastern India, goes by only one name.
Those labor law protections are starting to erode. Many companies rely increasingly on contract workers, whom they require to leave after a single year, circumventing the employment guarantees.
For Mr. Modi, the most immediate challenge is on the political front.
While his party dominates the lower house of Parliament, the deeply divided upper house has delayed action on bills for his longer-term reforms. So Mr. Modi has relied on executive orders that automatically expire in late April. They can be renewed, though not indefinitely.
Needing support from minority parties in the upper house of Parliament, he sent Arun Jaitley, the finance minister, to the home of Jayalalitha Jayaram, the longtime leader of an influential regional party here in Tamil Nadu state, with flowers on Jan. 18. The trip was controversial since Jayalalitha, who is known by her first name, is out of prison on bail pending her appeal of a conviction last year in a corruption case.
The government has also been criticized for revising the way it calculates gross domestic product. The move on Jan. 30 brought India into line with the practices of most developed nations and produced a sharp increase in the country’s reported economic growth. But critics viewed the timing as a political move intended to give Mr. Modi more support.
Even some of Mr. Modi’s supporters are cautious about what he has accomplished so far. “Lots of people have been blindly jumping into India on euphoria and hype,” said Rajeev Chandrasekhar, a wealthy financier and a member of the upper house of Parliament who wants more extensive reforms when the prime minister sends the new budget to Parliament on Feb. 28. “He hasn’t introduced any new ideas, and that is what he needs to do in February.”
Mr. Modi’s senior advisers say that they have begun making significant changes and that critics are too impatient. “There are a lot of inherited, legacy issues we had to work through,” like budget deficits and persistent inflation, said Jayant Sinha, the minister of state for finance. “You have to give us a little bit of time for every business to feel the difference.”

Comments

Mbr

 Ashburn, VA 10 hours ago
In the name of growth, the Modi government is diluting various laws, some of which include diluting the environmental laws, which would ultimately hurt India.
So far, Modi's lip service is not doing anything good for the country unless he really starts implementing the reforms, but it should not be at the cost of the poor, benefiting the large corporates.
     
NYT Pick

Native New Yorker

 nyc 15 hours ago
Much about what ails India is it's culture of corruption and bureaucracy. It's regulations were written in a time that was necessary to protect small land owners or poor villages from getting their rights trampled. Modi as governor demonstrated that bureaucracy could be cut enough and incentives through cutting red tape and reducing corruption could revitalize a region to prosperity. Infrastructure - roads, electricity, fuel are the cornerstone of any growth in India and this will be very expensive and time consuming for such a large nation. Prime Minsiter Modi is a breath of fresh air in India and the climate is attracting business to take a second look at India as an alternative to setting up shop in India.
     
NYT Pick

CRVishnuram

 Bangalore 15 hours ago
Ahh...! Finally India sharing the lime light in the midst of all local chaos is Welcome. My humble thought is it is just a beginning and India has a long way to go in improving per capita income of our fellow citizens. No doubt about that. With Population only next to China and mostly young, India has just started reaping the so called "Demographic Dividend". India's conservative society saves a lot than they spend. It's a habit cultivated from their ancestors. We have a bulk Foreign exchange reserves to deal with any of the Rupee depreciation catastrophe similar to what Russia faces now. With Oil Import bills shrinking, it makes sense that we divert the money saved in building country's battling Infrastructure, which I believe our new FM is working with. All is well as of today and for future India needs to tread cautiously optimistic.
     
NYT Pick

Northwesterner

 Seattle 15 hours ago
As someone who has been doing business in India over the last 9 years, I couldnt disagree more with @AnonComment. There is material change at every level, and you only need to talk to locals to not just see the optimism, but hear their stories about personal advancement. Watching city after city, and not just Mumbai, get a metros, monorail, freeways and whole new cities coming up is not a chimera - its very very real. They may not catch up with China soon, but India will give its rivals a run for their money. And there is money to be made here. Big time.
  • In Reply to Anon Comment
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Srivatsa Hejib

 Bengaluru, India. 20 hours ago
Things have started to gradually change since Mr. Modi was elected as the Prime Minister. His party has a strong mandate in the lower house of the parliament and thus it provides a sort of stability. Prime Minister Modi has made it clear to everyone that he is business friendly. He basically wants to create job opportunities for the poor and the middle class by promoting industrial growth by MNCs. He also has promoted ways to sustain our domestic industries by introducing minor reforms. Deregulation of oil prices was one of the key issues which made clear Modi's visions of economic reforms.

His PR skills instill a sense of confidence in people. It was only because of Modi that President Obama visited India for our Republic Day parade. I have never seen a man who worked so hard for my country. His pet project "Make in India" is promising as it helps further create jobs for the aspirational youth. As an 18 year old male, who wants to set up businesses in future, I was inspired by his pro-business stance.

But the hurdles in his path are many. It is to be seen as to how Modi will tackle the issues in Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the Parliament where his party is in minority, to get the bills passed.

He has been successful in creating a sense of optimism among us Indians. We have been waiting for major tax reforms with bated breaths. Hopefully, he can deliver on his promises to bring in big ticket reforms.
     
NYT Pick

Nikhil

 Jersey 20 hours ago
The surge in growth is recent since the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy has changed the base year from 2004 to 2012. The real effects will be felt in 2 years time. As the only other liberal secular multi-cultural growing democracy in the world with shared security concerns and an independent media, America should think of India as a natural partner instead of skepticism.
Having said that, I'm surprised by the comments ranging from irrelevance to ignorant condescension. Indian companies do not lobby with WHO & Congress to get names of ineffective medicines like Tamiflu into mandatory stock lists. There have been quality failures with one or two companies but is such an occurrence specific to India? India is not gunning to become call centre capital of the world. It suited American companies to save a truck load of money by moving low-level processes relying on English speaking skills of Indians. Call centres = less than 0.01% of India's population compared with Philippines- 3.5% of population. Indian IT companies are moving towards critical business processes and growing domestic demand. It is unfair for American companies to expect top notch quality at 1/10th costs. You approach anything, let apart outsourcing, with that mindset, you can't have quality.
India has initiated a landmark sanitation project. The world's largest solar energy plants are currently under construction in India. suggest anyone who commented here to read about projects by current administration.
     
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Bruce Rozenblit

 Kansas City 22 hours ago
PBS NewsHour recently ran a story on Modi and his policies. While factory production is up, the environmental conditions there are deplorable. Workers are exposed to terrible pollutants. India has phenomenal numbers of people that live in squalor. They also burn a tremendous amount of coal.

China is suffering terribly from lack of environmental controls. It appears that India is following their path toward economic growth which will largely benefit the owner class at the the expense of the health and working conditions of the poor. This same story has been repeated all over the world for centuries.
     
NYT Pick

S. Ram

 Houston, TX 22 hours ago
India is full of potential- in its first try it sent a satellite to Mars at 1/100th cost of NASA. The US would do good to keep and foster India as an ally, by all measures it is the most pro-America country on the planet. As an American of Indian origin, it distresses me to read comments by NYT readers that are so shallow. India is not a country that is run by call centers and textile mills. To judge a country anecdotally on your call the "United Airlines Call center" is repugnant at best. India is full of bureaucratic tangles but I have seen in the last few years significant changes for the better. While there are gross problems with infrastructure and social injustices the new government seems to be more pro-business and pro- development than any in its modern history (Delhi airport was recently rated #1 for 45million pax or > in a recent survey). Who says it has to be a quick change? China did not become an economic powerhouse overnight and India will certainly not- it has a small thing called democracy and freedom to deal with. (We still value that right?)
     
NYT Pick

VB

 Tucson 22 hours ago
India's hubris has often been her nemesis. A strong dose of humility with pragmatic economic policies is the prescription India needs to improve her trade relationship with the West and the rest of the world.
     
NYT Pick

Peace

 NY, NY 22 hours ago
It can be difficult to compare western nations and economies with India or to understand how it really functions. People find the slow pace of progress and relaxed attitudes of people frustrating. But that is how it is. It is a nation that will move at it's own pace and it may not look like there is much progress. But then one day you'll hear that there are nearly a billion cell phone users in India or that their space agency sent a probe to Mars on their first attempt.

Yes, progress is slow in India, but whoever said it needs to be at breakneck speed? Don't make the mistake of thinking that Indians are not aware of their socio-cultural, gender or developmental issues, we are acutely aware of these. But we also believe in slow and solid progress and change rather than the centrally implemented approach that, for example, China has followed. Believe me, when a nation the size of India gathers momentum, it is a large momentum.
     
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ksny

 nyc 23 hours ago
I hope this progress does not come at the expense of clean air, water and food. I dread the idea of any Indian city having air pollution like Beijing. Already metropolises like Delhi have it bad.
     
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Ashish

 Delhi 23 hours ago
Basics need to be addressed for long term sustainable growth. We still struggle with road quality, road discipline, dust and pollution, electricity, water and not to mention corrupt. Thanks to socialist policies for decades, most labor have undue demands and can get aggressive. How can industry survive if goods cant reach ports or markets without being troubled by officials at every state crossing. We really hope things will change with Modi government. So far we don't see any tangible change in our lives. His one year in power is soon going to up.
     
NYT Pick

Siddhartha Banerjee

 Oxford, Pennsylvania 23 hours ago
Untapped market opportunities lie at the ignored bottom of India's social pyramid where basic consumer goods are sorely needed - think very small (modest needs), think big (many millions of customers).
     
NYT Pick

JY

 IL 23 hours ago
The large youth population will allow for lower wages, but will put much pressure on employment. It is a challenge for China even though the youth population is getting smaller. The downside of overpopulation is a long-term problem, economically and environmentally.
     
NYT Pick

Roy

 Warrensburg 23 hours ago
As a long-time observer and visitor to India, I am struck by one characteristic of Indians that propels them to move ahead: Indian exceptionalism. Their entrepreneurial spirits seem to have been unleashed in a maturing, open political system that projects India as nothing less than a great economic power on the world stage within decades. There may be something to this "Indian exceptionalism". Indians are in top tier in economic prosperity in the United States and other Western countries. Indian presence is significant among the top tier professionals in the most advanced and high tech industries in the United States. Given the similar environment to succeed in India -- something the Modi government is working to provide -- India's economic future looks very bright indeed.

Jack Nargundkar

 Germantown, MD 1 hour ago
India pursued a “License Raj” policy under the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty for 44 years following independence. It finally shed parts of its socialist model in 1991 but still continues with five-year plans overseen by a Planning Commission under the auspices of the federal government. Rumor has it that this is a legacy, which the Modi government wants to get rid of. However, it entails discarding a bureaucracy associated with thousands of jobs. Getting fired from a government job in India is next to impossible – the French don’t hold a candle to Indians in this regard.

Nonetheless, change is happening and we will see India growing rapidly in the next decade and more. If the BJP government delivers on its promises, we might be soon praising an India for its “Modi rate of growth,” not deriding it for its “Hindu rate of growth” that spanned most of the Nehru-Gandhi era.
     

Sebastian Serious

 Atlanta,GA 1 hour ago
India is a very poor country. About 7% of kids are dying from starvation here. This a great problem here. But at the same time a wish of the United States to help can end up not very good. I hope that India won't lose it's extraordinary culture
     

Gene

 is a trusted commenter Atlanta 5 hours ago
India has for decades resisted the US model. China has embraced it. Look at the difference?

Anyone who thinks this changes anything in US manufacturing is mistaken. We are in a world economy. We have a population of 314 million out of the 6 billion world population and have one of the lowest population growth rates. We have the highest standard of living and consume a disproportionate share of world resources. Our incomes are the world's highest.

We have Social Security, Workman's Compensation, Medicare, Medicaid, minimum wage, etc., etc. etc. Then we wonder why our labor costs are higher.

People living in the rest of the world are just as smart as we are and work harder. Their wages and standard of living are much lower. As their economy develops, these advantages disappear. Look at Japan today versus 40 years ago.

China still has 600 million people working small plots and barely surviving. This article focuses on India. Africa is yet to come.

We play on a world stage. Our future depends on it.
     

N.G. Krishnan

 Bangalore, India 1 hour ago
Very American centric vision, obliviously unaware that India is an enormous and varied place with the genetic, linguistic, culinary and sartorial diversity which are usually found in a continent.

Each country has to choose the best suited for its genius.

India is unique and it cannot possibility just copy paste other models without destroying itself.

India has greater linguistic diversity than any other large country and its languages belong to four of the world's major language groups: Indo-European, Dravidian, Austro-Asiatic and Tibeto-Burman. The 1961 census of India listed 1,652 languages, though some of these may have effectively been dialects, and a few languages have died out since then. The big six languages - Hindi, Bengali, Telugu, Marathi, Tamil and Urdu - are each spoken by more than 50 million people. A total of 122 languages are each spoken by more than 10,000 people.

India is the world's largest democracy and precisely 417,037, 606 people voted at the parliamentary election in 2009.

Unlike China where all the land is owned by Government, India ownership is private.

India has the second or third highest population of Muslims in the world.

"We play on a world stage"? Nothing to be proud of. India never aspired for it and the Indic religious philosophy is rooted in highly civilized "live and let live" dictum!
     

winston

 charmarie 1 hour ago
You are sadly out of touch. You need to catch up on a few things that have happened in the last 25 years or so of your life. Have you heard of Germany? An overpaid working class is not our problem; a self-indulgent and not very imaginative managerial class is. Luckily there is still a lot of innovation left in most Americans, and we are unsurpassed at creating new companies.

GE, after moving a lot of manufacturing to China to pick the low-hanging fruit of cheap labor are moving important parts back to America, because having the production feedback into design, and holding onto intellectual property, are better long-term strategy.

German companies, with much better labor relations (imagine--managers actually have to sit with worker reps in board meetings!) do just fine--with higher wages, much longer vacations, etc.

Your rant is tired old cliches more in tune with 1950s America.
     

Nancy

 is a trusted commenter Great Neck 6 hours ago
"China’s investigations of multinationals, persistent tensions with neighboring countries and surging blue-collar wages have prompted many companies to start looking elsewhere for large labor forces."

Ridiculous, Chinese blue-collar wages are "surging," China is carefully regulating multinational companies and these are supposed to be problems for whom? As for tensions with neighbors, well, India has all sorts of tensions with neighbors but China is at peace and will surely remain so and tensions are resolved by diplomacy. I have no idea why there is a need to criticize an economically dramatically successful China in an article on India.
     

Miss Ley

 New York 1 hour ago
95% of countries depend on America for its products, making it the largest economic global power in the world, and manufacturing for exports has risen 48% from 2009 until now. China is second in the lead, and negotiations are taking place now for free and fair trade to raise the salaries of American laborers, 'The Trans Pacific Partnership' with China. In the meantime, India's economic power is coming to the fore, and it is also a power to be reckoned with.
     

G V

 New York 8 hours ago
Finally - after decades - an article that actually Talks about India as a country with its set of development issues - as opposed to ALL the articles thus far (this one excepted) ranting and raving about the right wing this and communal that!
     

Dheerendra Ranawat

 Jodhpur, India 8 hours ago
Besides building the physical infrastructure, Modi needs to build the human infrastructure as well. India's problem fundamentally is the lack of a high quality, modern education system that provides free education at least till high school. Leaving large sections of the society illiterate has obvious problems and they are on display in today's India. Haven't heard him talk about this at all. I hope he realizes this.

Its a start nevertheless. Good that this time the Indian electorate decided to throw away the yoke of successive Congress governments that seemed like vestige of the British colonial rule. They looted and did the minimum that was needed to perpetuate their hold on power.

The Indian elephant has opened one eye. A few decades from now it will start dancing and the rest of the jungle will watch in awe.
     

Miss Ley

 New York 1 hour ago
When Prime Minister Modi welcomed President Obama in a splendid State visit recently, their relations appear to be cordial, and the bond between the two countries stronger than ever. The leaders were able to discuss some important matters of mutual concern to them, and there is reason to believe that the need for better education was raised as a high priority, while the Indian elephant was present at their side with eyes open.
     

N.G. Krishnan

 Bangalore, India 9 hours ago
I am sure Modi is attempting not to copy cat the western solution of creating gigantic business models for improving and uplifting the millions of poor. He has the genius to realize the MNC have undermined the efforts of the poor to build their livelihoods doing by ignoring them altogether. Unfortunately poor cannot "participate in the benefits of globalization without an active engagement and without access to products and services that represent global quality standards".

When Indian born Prof. C.K. Prahalad and Stuart Hart proposed theory of The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP), they had exactly the type of people of India where the poverty mask the fact that the very poor represent resilient entrepreneurs and value-conscious consumers.http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~brewer/ict4b/Fortune-BoP.pdf

India to proper actively perusing BOP model of economic governance of Inclusive capitalism is important.

Satisfying to see many measures of the Government is in BOP direction.

Critics are unhappy of miracle not happening. Real changes take time unless the country is headed by a quake. Country is burdened with corruption-ridden and conservative bureaucracy. It is a Herculean task to purge the system. Luck, patient and perseverance are essential and Modi has what it takes to make it happen.

He is fighting the tyranny of time with voters expecting instant results. He being a statesman and not merely a politician certainly has in him to change India.
     

Abhinav

 New York 9 hours ago
This was exactly the reason Modi was elected with such a big mandate. It has given him the flexibility to implement business friendly decisions unlike the previous Prime Minister. There is a still long road ahead but good to see that at least we are progressing in the right direction. Change will come but it will take some time.
     

Nancy

 Corinth, Kentucky 9 hours ago
Miracle, shmiracle.
Anyone can have 7% growth with a high birth rate for cheap labor and a complete disregard for the environment and citizens' health.
Modi has promised to double India's use of coal. Pollution in Delhi is now worse than in Beijing. In the countryside cow-dung is used for cooking fuel, while farmers go into debt to pay for chemical fertilizers. Salinization from irrigation is ruining the fertile soil of India's breadbasket, the Punjab. And climate change has made the monsoon less and less reliable.
Yet - growth, growth, growth! And while Modi decries sectarian violence, his RSS gurus counsel Hindu women to have more children.
And the rupee is gaining value. Somebody better tell them that is NOT good news. Not if you're competing with China, it's not.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/18/business/as-rivals-falter-indias-economy-is-surging-ahead.html?_r=0

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