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Its official FY 15 GDP soared at 7.4%. Who is Anant? Any leads?

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"Truth be damned. And statistics are lies. It is time to give marching orders to Anant – following Avinash Chander and Sujatha Singh." -- Says, Sarvaprajna P. Chidambaram, Former FM who claims credit for everything. He is a lender of the last resort in politics.

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/across-the-aisle-truth-damned-truth-and-statistics/2/

India's FY15 GDP estimated to soar 7.4% under new methodology

The latest estimate compares with a revised 6.9% growth a year earlier

Image via Shutterstock
The government, on Monday, estimated India’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 7.4% for 2014-15, compared with earlier forecasts of 5.5-6%, on back of the switch of base year from 2004-05 to 2011-12, and the new Gross Value Added (GVA) method of calculation.

For 2013-14, the centre had revised the GDP growth rate to 6.9% from the earlier reported 4.7%.

The Central Statistics Office today also estimated the September-December 2014 quarter GDP growth at 7.5%. Based on the new base year and the method of calculations, the April-June 2014 quarter provisional GDP growth was revised to 6.5% from 5.7% and the July-September 2014 quarter provisional GDP growth was revised to 8.2% from 5.3%.

Under the new process of calculating national accounts, the gross domestic product would include indirect taxes, technically called GDP at market prices instead of GDP at factor cost, exclusive of indirect taxes, which has been taken for calculating economic growth so far. This may put India at par with international standards but will rejig the entire figures of growth numbers calculated so far.

GDP growth as % year-on-year
2005-06 (base 2004-05)2006-07 (base 2004-05)2007-08
(base 2004-05)
2008-09 (base 2004-05)2009-10 (base 2004-05)2010-11 (base 2004-05)2011-12 (base 2004-05)2012-13 (base 2011-12)2013-14 (base 2011-12)2014-15 (base 2011-12)
9.39.39.83.78.510.36.65.16.9          7.4
Note: Growth is given on the basis of new definition of GDP; 2014-15 growth is based on advance estimates

If that is the practice adopted now and if the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank estimates turn out to be true, India will actually take over China in terms of growth in the next couple of years. India's economy is estimated to grow by 6.5% in 2016-17 against China's 6.3% in 2016 and both the growth rates are estimated at GDP at market prices by the Fund. The Bank projected India's economic growth rate at 7% against China's 6.9%.

Size of India's economy (in Rs crore)
Base Year 2011-122012-132013-142014-15
2004-0590,09,722101,13,281113,55,073128,76,653*
2011-1288,32,01299,88,540113,45,056126,53,762
*Budget Estimates


Centre's fiscal deficit as percentage of GDP
Base year2011-122012-132013-142014-15
2004-055.64.84.54.1*
2011-125.84.94.54.2
*Budget Estimates
Source: Ministry of statistics and programme implementation

http://www.business-standard.com/article/printer-friendly-version?article_id=115020900697_1

It's official: India is the world's fastest growing big economy at 7.4%





  • Reuters, New Delhi

  •  | 




  • Updated: Feb 09, 2015 06:52 IST

  • The government on Monday forecast that annual economic growth would accelerate to 7.4% in the year ending in March after its statisticians changed the way they measure the country's economy.
    The new estimate is sharply higher than the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) growth projection of around 5.5% under the old method as well as a revised 6.9% growth a year earlier.
    Under the new method, the economy grew 7.5% in the quarter ending in December, outpacing China's 7.3% growth in the latest quarter and making India the fastest growing major economy in the world.
    The revisions mark a dramatic turnaround for an economy that barely a fortnight ago was assumed to be still struggling to gather momentum under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reform-minded government. Prior to Modi's election last May, the economy had endured its weakest phase of growth since the 1980s.
    The apparent recovery is, however, in large measure due to changes both in the way authorities calculate gross domestic product (GDP) and the base year.
    India now measures GDP by market prices instead of factor cost, to take into account gross value addition in goods and services as well as indirect taxes net of subsidies. The base year has been shifted to 2011/12 from 2004/05.
    The reading, however, is at odds with other indicators such as industrial production and trade data, which suggest the economy is still suffering from slack.
    A Prasanna, economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd, questioned the credibility of the data and asked the government to explain glaring gaps.
    "The government has itself been saying that tax collections are slow due to a slowdown in the economy, but the other wing of the government is saying that GDP growth has been good," he said.
    "That means either one part of the economy is not taxed or there is an issue with the data."

    GDP growth for the first half of fiscal 2014/15 was also recalculated and revised up to about 7.4% from the 5.5% reported earlier.

    http://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/gdp-expected-to-grow-7-4-in-2014-15-based-on-new-formula/article1-1315159.aspx


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