US President Barack Obama’s proposed visit to New Delhi on 25-26 January may be the unstated reason behind the extended belligerence of opposition parties in the Rajya Sabha over the issue of 'conversions'. If this sounds far-fetched, this is what senior leaders of BJP believe, and the thought is shared privately by some opposition leaders, too.

The purpose of stalling the Rajya Sabha is to achieve two 'objectives': one is to 'prove' that Narendra Modi and the BJP are communal; more important, if the Insurance Bill is not passed, Modi will have nothing to show Obama when he comes a-calling next month. This will not only prove Modi’s inability to get reforms through, but will also puncture his international standing as the man who can get things done. The insurance bill would thus have been stalled in two successive sessions of parliament despite Modi’s majority in the Lok Sabha.

In the previous (monsoon) session, the opposition (Congress, Left, TMC, SP and JD-U) foiled all attempts by the Modi government to pass the Insurance Bill and forced it to refer it to a Select Committee. A number of opposition leaders had then, inside and outside of Parliament, linked the government’s determination to pass the Insurance Bill with Modi’s proposed visit to the US with a reformist legislation in the bag. But they claimed the Bill had some clauses that needed examination by a select committee.

The select committee submitted its report last week and on the same day the Cabinet approved it for consideration in Parliament. But since the committee was constituted by the Rajya Sabha, the Bill in its present form must come in this house first. The Bill cannot be taken up for consideration till the house is in order. The chair would not like to allow the passage of such an important bill amid a general din. The Congress, which had mooted the Bill when it was in power, and had its suggestions incorporated in the select committee’s final report, will need to take a clear position in the House when it comes to a vote. Disruptions on conversions suit its purpose.

That explains why the Lok Sabha, barring a few interruptions, is functioning smoothly while the Rajya Sabha continues to be disrupted endlessly on some pretext or the other.

The ruling BJP realises the Opposition’s gameplan but this time it is inclined to return the fire and play hardball. It is unlikely to walk the extra mile to meet opposition demands, which include a statement by the Prime Minister. There are only four working days left in this session, which ends next Tuesday. "If the opposition is being so unreasonable and is in a totally disruptive mood, what can we do? We are still hopeful that the logjam will end but if that does not happen then let it be," a BJP leader said.

Top government functionaries are also mulling over Plan B – bringing an ordinance on the Insurance Bill after the session comes to an end, and have it ratified in the budget session. The government would then like to present it first to the Lok Sabha, where it has a clear majority, and then to the Rajya Sabha. The option of a joint session, if the Rajya Sabha rejects it, is also there.

If the current Rajya Sabha session ends without passing the bill, the insurance ordinance is likely to be promulgated before Obama’s visit to India. This would send a strong message to all concerned that this government is firm and uncompromising on economic reform and development.

On the conversion row, Modi is expected to be present in the Rajya Sabha today (18 December) but will not respond to Opposition charges about the Sangh’s conversion agenda. Thursday, in any case is his 'Question Hour' day in the Rajya Sabha. The Opposition did not allow a discussion on the issue, even as it was listed for the day’s business, insisting that the government must first commit to the Prime Minister’s presence in the House during the debate and respond to it in conclusion.

The government may not relent. Its floor strategists quote the previous instance, when the PM’s clarification on Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti’s Ramzaade-Haramzaade remarks did not yield any benefit. It does not want a repeat where the PM’s statement results in no good.

At a meeting held on Wednesday with senior ministers Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley, Venkaiah Naidu and Nitin Gadkari, it was decided that the government would not yield to the Opposition’s demand that the PM should respond to their charges on conversion. The BJP leaders were asked to aggressively take on the Opposition’s misdeeds within and outside Parliament.

Modi, for his part, has already told the motormouths in his party to stop making controversial statements, and drew a ‘Lakshman rekha’ for them to respect. The party, though, is in no mood to be defensive in parliament anymore. BJP national secretary Shrikant Sharma said “we have done nothing to be on the defensive. It is in fact the Congress which has to explain a lot of things to the nation at large.”

The suspension of a senior Congress MP for a day by Chairman Hamid Ansari, for making derogatory remarks against the Prime Minister, has given the BJP the right handle to demand an explanation from the Congress.