Circus Clowns at the Gate, But Modi Citadel Remains Unfazed
By JAY BHATTACHARJEE
Published: 23rd November 2014 06:00 AM
Last Updated: 23rd November 2014 07:33 AM
Indians are fortunate that they have had a regime change in May through the ballot box and the hustings. When this happens, there are no cataclysmic events or seismic tremors that accompany more radical methods of replacement or expulsion of oligarchies and dynasties. This achievement should really earn us a podium place in the history of governance. Ordinary Indians have taken the whole thing in their stride, but this does not mean that the ousted cabal has been mature and composed about their loss of power and pelf. The recent brouhaha by our previous rulers about the third language in the Kendriya Vidyalaya institutions is an indication of their desperate mindset.
Lately, this writer has been studying the subject of regime changes and trying to assess various factors that bring about the collapse of entrenched rulers and groups. The reason for this interest was, of course, the death rattles of the previous regime that were audible to everyone except the ruling coterie. It was obvious that the UPA oligarchy was in the intensive care unit for the last few years and the main question most dispassionate observers, including yours truly, were asking was when the misery would finish. The end mercifully came in May, when the previous occupants of Lutyens’ Delhi found themselves without jobs and sinecures.
The principal reasons why oligarchies and dictatorships eventually collapse can be grouped into about four or five categories. It is, of course, possible to increase the number of factors by adding subsidiary ones or by plain hair-splitting. However, the major schools of socio-political studies would broadly agree with the following list : (1) economic reasons —wealth and earnings inequalities, unfair and inequitable fiscal burdens etc. (2) social considerations—visibly immoderate greed of the rulers (3) psychological factors—the de-sanctification or de-mythologising of the ruling family and groups, resentment of foreigners/aliens in the governing apparatus, overt preferential treatment to selected segments of the population and (4) manifest failures of governance at the grassroots level—a predatory bureaucracy, a non-functioning judicial/grievance redress framework etc.
In today’s world, these factors have a multiplier effect because of information technology and the speed of dissemination of ideas. When we closely look at the variables outlined earlier, the parallels with the situation in India in the last few decades become patently clear. The vast majority of thinking citizens of the Republic will agree that our country exhibited all the variables that are pre-requisites for major political upheavals.
The only question that bothers me is how the Congress power structure in its current form managed to survive (and indeed prosper) so long. This is the same query that Edward Gibbon posed in his monumental study, The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, and which is so apposite in the present Indian context for obvious reasons. Gibbon summarised his dilemma by saying that “instead of inquiring why the Roman Empire was destroyed, we should rather be surprised that it subsisted for so long”. This is exactly what many Indian social scientists would ask the grand old desi party.
The subject becomes more interesting when we look at the post-catastrophe arena. In the current national scenario, the Congress has been reduced to a minor also-ran in Indian politics. However, its clout and nuisance value for the new lot in Raisina Hill cannot be gauged solely on the basis of the number of seats it has in Parliament. Given the fact that its financial resources are humongous, to put it mildly, I would feel that it can mount a major rearguard assault on the new rulers. Here again we have many interesting parallels, some from the recent past. The Nazi and fascist gangs in Europe during the last world war managed to secrete their enormous assets in South America thanks to the infamous rat-line and the liberal assistance from the Vatican. Similarly, the French Royalists who fled after the 1789 revolution aligned themselves with the English and Prussians and continued to subvert the new Republic.
In our shores, the Congress would dearly like an intense sniping attack on the new regime. However, to initiate a major comeback effort, it will most certainly call for grey matter, cerebral minds and people with reasonably clean hands. 24 Akbar Road and 10 Janpath are manifestly short of these three ingredients, which is why they got into this gigantic mess to start with. Financial and physical resources are just not sufficient to claw back to power if you are a venal and rickety organisation, with no ideology or principles to motivate the rank and file.
There cannot be serious challenges from a party whose senior leader claims that his financial documents were breakfast material for termites. Nor can a programme to promote German as a third language in Indian schools be a vote catcher. Modi’s citadel can rest easy for the time being.
jay.bhattacharjee@gmail.com
The author is a corporate laws and business analyst, based in Delhi
http://www.newindianexpress.com/columns/2014/11/23/Circus-Clowns-at-the-Gate-But-Modi-Citadel-Remains-Unfazed/article2536152.ece