As the climate warms, increased melting of glaciers and more rain along the Himalayas is likely to enhance the flow of water into the big rivers that arise in this vast mountain range, according to research just published.
Researchers in The Netherlands and Nepal used high-resolution modelling to study how a warmer climate would affect run-off in the Himalayas into the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween and Mekong rivers in the coming decades. These five rivers sustain agriculture and 1.3 billion people in a dozen countries.
There would be increased run-off into the five rivers at least until 2050, Arthur F. Lutz and his colleagues noted in a paper carried in Nature Climate Change .
As a result of rising temperature, “a decrease in glacier extent is projected for all basins.” However, the decrease in glacier area would be compensated by a higher rate of melting. Consequently, the contribution from melting glaciers to the five rivers would not change much till 2050, they noted.
“If glaciers continue to retreat, at some point in time there will be a net decrease in melt water,” remarked Mr. Lutz in a press release issued by the Utrecht University in The Netherlands.
The Indus, however, was likely to see increased run-off from accelerated melting of glaciers in the period up to 2050, according to the paper.
In the case of the other four rivers, it would be more rain along the Himalayas that swell their flow. The upper Ganges basin could see its yearly run-off growing by up to 27 per cent. In the press release from Utrecht University, the scientists emphasised that their projections were only until 2050.


  • New research points to how warmer climate affects run-off
  • Five rivers to get more water at least until 2050


  • Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween and Mekong rivers sustain agriculture and 1.3 billion people in a dozen countries

    How long before the glacial lakes swell?

    By Navin Singh Khadka, BBC News
    IN PERSPECTIVE 2 June 2014
    It has been almost two decades since the first few field studies were done on the Himalayas.

    After a long gap, scientists in Nepal have embarked on the first field studies of Himalayan glacial lakes, some of which are feared to be swelling dangerously due to global warming. In May, they completed the field visit to the first location, a lake in the Everest region. They plan to conduct similar surveys of two other glacial lakes in the central and western part of the Nepalese Himalayas later in the year.

    “We have started with Nepal, but we intend to extend studies to other Hindu Kush Himalayan countries,” says Dr Arun Bhakta Shrestha, a climate change specialist with the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), which is carrying out the research alongside a number of government agencies.

    The Hindu Kush Himalayan region stretches between Burma to Afghanistan, showcasing snow-clad mountains, some of which are the world's highest. Having returned from their first field visit, the scientists are now grappling with the data they collected on the body of water, known as Imja lake. It will take some time before they release their final conclusions. But, sharing his initial observations, Pradeep Mool, a remote sensing specialist with the ICIMOD, said there was an air of change in and around Lake Imja. “The area of the lake has become bigger and there are some changes in its end moraines.” But, he added, “I would not call it alarming.”

    Witnessing change

    While scientists are cautious when speaking about the changes, mountaineers have been more vocal. There is talk among Sherpa climbers about what they say is fast glacial retreat and snow meltdown. Appa Sherpa, who has climbed Everest a record number of times said that he had seen fresh water at the height of above 8,000 metres on Everest.
    “I was shocked to see fresh water at that altitude, where I had seen nothing but snow and ice before,” he said on his return last month from his 19th climb. This time he was on the Everest as a ‘climate witness’, for green group WWF's campaign to raise awareness of the impact of climate change on the Himalayas.

    It has been almost two decades since the first few field studies were done on the Himalayas. This gap in data-gathering and dearth of local climate change information has earned it the name ‘white spot’. Most of the studies have been desk-based, with the help of satellite imagery and computer simulations. Such studies have shown that the average temperature in the Himalayas have been rising at the rate of 0.06C every year, fuelling fears that glaciers may be melting fast, and filling up glacial lakes. One such study by the UN Environment Programme and ICIMOD warned that 20 glacial lakes in Nepal and 24 in Bhutan were swelling so rapidly that they could burst by 2009. A burst lake would cause flash floods, which could sweep away buildings and roads or even whole communities in countries like Nepal and Bhutan. This has already happened more than 30 times in and around Nepal in the last 70 years.

    Invisible threat

    There are around 3,300 glaciers in the Nepalese Himalayas and early 2,300 of them contain glacial lakes. No one knows which of these are reaching breaching point. But these new field studies, starting with Imja, Thulagi and Tsho Rolpa glacial lakes, should begin to answer these important questions. The Tsho Rolpa caused panic among locals until some water was drained from it almost ten years ago. Ever since then, the threat from glacial lakes has lurked. But funding difficulties have meant that no field studies have taken place. Things appear to be changing now.

    “We have attempted to go beyond desk-based assessments, which were largely hazard focused,” says Dr Shrestha. Mool says it was also about bringing specialists from different fields together. “Through the findings from these studies, we are trying to link science, policy making and public awareness so that what we find becomes practically useful for the society.”

    Although the field studies are specific to glacial lakes, they could also indicate how rivers in the regions might change. Major local rivers, like the Ganges, Bramhaputra, Meghna and Indus, have most of their tributaries fed by snow melt from Himalayan glaciers. 
    Previous studies and computer simulations have already shown that these rivers are likely to swell significantly as glaciers melt rapidly due to global warming. But scientists say, in the long term, when the glaciers have retreated, the rivers could dry up almost entirely during the dry season. This could cause an unprecedented crisis in the water supply for millions of people in the region.

    How soon could that happen is something these unique field studies will perhaps show.