Is AAP Delhi water formula full of leaks?

The people of Delhi may be in for a rude shock, following the new water pricing formula of AAP. They may have to shell-out 2-3 times more. Where meters are faulty, cost will be even higher

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has delivered on its electoral promise of providing 700 litres of free water per day per household even before they have proven their majority in the legislature. However, putting aside questions of political morality, no analysis of probable impact of this move on households and on fiscal health of the government, has been released by AAP so far. How genuine is the promise of free water? Could it be that the water bills are set to actually rise for a large number of people?

AAP claims to have pioneered the concept of “lifeline water” in India by promising minimum quantity of water required for survival. But how does the economics of water work in practice in Delhi as against what has been claimed conceptually?  How does it impact household budgets? What probable behavioural changes could be expected from different sections of Delhi population because of this measure? Is it a subsidy for the poor or the middle class? Here is the reality.

There are three major components of water charge that is billed to domestic consumers (Category 1) in Delhi. (There are two more categories of consumers, residential with mixed commercial use (Category 1A) and commercial and industrial use (Category II) but we have kept them out of our analysis as subsidy is not applicable to them.)

• • Metered water consumption: Divided into four slabs with progressively higher rates
• • Sewerage maintenance charges: Levied at 60% of price for metered water consumption
• • Fixed service charges: Levied based on slab under which your metered water consumption falls
   

There are two more components -- water cess charge and meter rent of Delhi Jal Board (DJB) which is negligible and hence not considered in this analysis.
The four slabs with progressively higher rates for each slab for both metered water consumption and fixed service charge are given in Table 1.1

Table 1.1

Consumption  per month	Old Rates	Fixed charges
1-10 KL	2.42	60.50
10-20 KL	3.63	121.00
20-30 KL	18.15	181.50
30-above KL	30.25	242.00

1 KL = 1,000 litres

Now, the AAP government has made consumption within first two slabs free of cost and increased rates for both metered water consumption and fixed service charge by 10% as per this ET report. Additionally, consumption beyond 20 KL in a month would be chargeable in full and it is implied in this report that such calculation would be on the basis of higher slab rates. The new rate brought in force by AAP is given in Table 1.2

Table 1.2

Consumption  per month	New Rates	Fixed charges
1-10 KL	0	0
10-20 KL	0	0
20-30 KL	19.97	199.65
30-above KL	33.28	266.20

    1 KL = 1,000 litres

So, how does water billing change at different consumption points for Delhi households? Below is the table (Table 1.3) and graph (Graph 1.1) for comparison. Also, DJB claims to incur a cost of Rs28 per KL including sewerage maintenance cost for supplying water.

Table 1.3

S No	Consumption per month (In KL)	Billing Amount (Old Rate)	Billing Amount (New Rate)	Additional burden due to new rates	Increase in Billing
1	10	99	-	(99)
2	15	189	-	(189)
3	20	218	-	(218)
4	21	308	871	563	183%
5	22	337	903	566	168%
6	23	366	935	569	155%
7	24	395	967	572	145%
8	25	424	999	575	136%
9	26	453	1,031	578	128%
10	27	482	1,063	581	120%
11	28	511	1,095	583	114%
12	29	540	1,127	586	109%
13	30	569	1,159	589	104%
14	31	678	1,278	600	88%
15	35	872	1,491	620	71%
16	40	1,114	1,758	644	58%
17	45	1,356	2,024	668	49%
18	50	1,598	2,290	692	43%
19	55	1,840	2,557	716	39%
20	60	2,082	2,823	741	36%

What are the conclusions from this chart?

1. Earlier there was a gradual increase in prices as you consume more. Now, there is a steep incline at 21 KL consumption due to a massive combined effect of free water till 20 KL, higher applicable slabs and increase in rates above 20 KL
2. Marginal rate for consumption even slightly above 20 KL per month is severely high compared to earlier rates, an incredible Rs871 against Rs308 earlier!
3. Consumers in the 20-30 KL slab get the worst deal and would have to pay 200%-300% times more!
4. Against principles of fairness, cost for higher category consumers (>30 KL per month) will be less steeper as their bills would go up by 30%-80%

Faulty Meters
Apart from the steep hike, there is an additional problem of fast meters that many in Delhi complain about. We have monitored our meter for past three days and found it to be running faster by 25%-40% (showing a gain of 1.25 to 1.4 KL for filling a water tank of 1,000 litre). Any evidence for such faulty meters is largely anecdotal and a systematic study is required to establish it as a fact. However, complaints of fast-running faulty meter are widespread. If we assume it to be a factor, then actual consumption would have to be limited to less than 500 litres per day to take advantage of new tariff structure. Suspicion about faulty meters will get combined with incentive to stay below the punitive consumption threshold. This will force consumers into adopting means that are totally against the principle and philosophy of AAP. Talk of unintended consequences!

Over the course of the next few months, all this will get clearer to Delhi citizens. How will it impact the different consumer classes and what impact it may have on their behaviour?

1. The middle class in Delhi, who have placed high hopes on AAP due to its clean image, would be in for a rude shock. Any additional gain they expected may not be realised and they may actually have to shell-out 2-3 times more.
2. Those who can limit their consumption to 20 KL per month do not pay anything and get the best deal. However, if they fail to do so in even one billing cycle, their entire gains would be wiped out and they may have to shell-out some additional money (DJB seems to be settling into a 3-month billing cycle so we have assumed four bills in a year) due to steep incline at 21 KL consumption level. A lower-income category household of up to 5 persons can be expected to limit their consumption within the free water limit and gain from this scenario. However, excess consumption due to extraneous factors (festival consumption, water coolers use in summers, temporary increase in household number due to guests) in even one billing cycle would prove very costly.
3. DJB allows households to install their own meters which can be sourced from certified manufacturers. But all kinds of water meters are available in the market which can be easily registered with DJB. Of course, it’s entirely possible that model citizens of Delhi would display exemplary behaviour and actually get down to learning about water conservation! And in the case of deviation, the gargantuan bureaucracy planned by AAP that goes by the name of Jan Lokpal would be at hand to take care of the enforcement problem! 
4. Even assuming that 40%-50% households would be able to limit their consumption and gain from new tariff structure, their gains would be Rs218 per month at the most. However, it does not bear out that such gains are so substantial even for lowest income category that it has become a calling card for AAP. The minimum wage in Delhi for unskilled category is Rs8,086 per month and Rs218 per month for water was a sensible tariff to charge.

As far as fiscal health of DJB is concerned, in the earlier tariff structure, DJB was giving a subsidy of Rs17-18 per KL up to 20 KL per month consumption and was recovering full cost for consumption between 20-30 KL and making a profit of ~40% on consumption beyond 30 KL. In the new tariff structure, DJB would be providing subsidy of Rs28 per KL up to 20 KL per month consumption and would not be able to recover any part of the cost, but would make profit of  ~30% for consumption between 20-30 KL and super-profit of ~50% for consumption beyond 30 KL. Additionally, rate increase is expected across-the-board so billing for other two categories of consumers would also be higher so it may be possible that the new tariff structure actually bring additional revenues to DJB. (The ET report suggests that DJB officials expect a subsidy of Rs160 crore annually. However, this is not clear as household data for water consumption in Delhi is not available in public domain)

This policy definitely does not address concerns like water for all, assured supply, good quality, developing long-term sources as Delhi ‘imports’ 80% of its water from other states, cleaning river Yamuna, dual supply lines for potable and non-potable water, metering all connections, tackling tanker mafia, reducing distribution losses for long-term sustainable water availability and supply. Instead, AAP has taken the easy route to gain political mileage. Strangely, price of water was hardly an issue in Delhi (price of electricity was definitely an electoral issue). This move is of a piece whereby a supposed benefit has been provided to half of Delhi which was not asked for but would create a legacy that may be replicated elsewhere and would be difficult to eradicate in near future.

Another calling card of AAP, which has generated even more interest and debate, is their promise to reduce electricity rates by 50%. Given that electricity pricing, unlike water pricing, is not entirely in the hands of the Government of Delhi, AAP may want to replicate the same model for new power tariff structure as well. However, sensitivity to electricity bills is quite high in Delhi and any such move to cross-subsidise part of the population may have negative consequences

New water tariff structure has been approved for the period Jan-Mar 2014. The bills, therefore, would start hitting households in the month of April and would provide quite a shock just in time for parliamentary elections and a possible re-election in Delhi. AAP would be well-advised to re-think the tariff structure and at least continue with the earlier rates for 0-10 KL and 10-20 KL slabs for billing of consumption beyond 20 KL. Otherwise, the most vociferous backers of AAP, the middle class and young, may not be available to vote for AAP six months down the line.

(Vivek Khaitan is an MBA from IIM Calcutta and is working as a management consultant for past five years in New Delhi)