NEW DELHI: As a city state with a large migrant population, if Delhi elections reflect voter sentiments of regions to which these migrants belong, it's bad news for Congress in 2014 polls. Of the 15 constituencies where migrants from UP and Bihar have a significant population, BJP has won nine while AAP has bagged four leaving just two for Congress.

To make matters worse, in five of the nine seats where BJP has won, AAP is in the second position, while on two of the four seats won by AAP, BJP is a close second. The Congress is second to AAP or BJP only in five seats. In two constituencies (Gokalpur and Palam), Congress is not even among the top three. Put together, Congress has had little influence on voters in as many as 10 constituencies with migrant population.

The combination has virtually pushed Congress out of the equation among people from UP and Bihar where Congress along with other parties will fight a decisive battle to stall the BJP juggernaut for 2014 polls.

According to 2001 census, Delhi has a migrant population of 1.3 million from Bihar and UP alone.

In eight constituencies where Congress has stood second or third, it is behind BJP by minimum of over 4,000 votes and maximum margin of 53,000 votes. In five constituencies, it is behind BJP by over 11,000 votes. In the two seats which Congress has won, Mustafabad and Gandhi Nagar, BJP has lost by less than 2,000 votes.

Interestingly, in Burari and Kirari, with high UP-Bihar migrant population, Congress is behind BJP by 28,000 and 53,000 votes, respectively. These were also constituencies being eyed by JD(U) where Bihar CM Nitish Kumar campaigned vigorously. Its candidate in Kirari polled 944 votes, while its Burari candidate got 2,643 votes.

Even in Okhla, with large Muslim population, JD(U) candidate polled merely 9,735 votes, lagging by over 40,000 votes to victorious Congress candidate Asif Mohammed Khan and over 13,000 votes to BJP's Dhir Singh Bidhuri.