Govt measures are hopeless, I am not optimistic on India: Jim Rogers
Legendary Wall Street trader Jim Rogers says the measures taken by the Indian government and the Reserve Bank recently to improve the macro-economic sentiment and arrest the fall of rupee have not yielded any results and have instead made the situationworse.
Singapore-based Rogers, who is chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests Inc, says the government just doesn't understand economics. "Debt is rising and the balance of trade is going higher. The government is making more mistakes and that's not going to solve the problem," he said in an interview to ET. Edited excerpts:
The government and the Reserve Bank have announced a slew of reforms and policies this year to revive economic growth. What is your view on these measures?
I have been shorting India due to many reasons. The currency is in a mess, the country has very high debt, and debt-to-GDP ratio is going up every year. I am very concerned about the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit situation. The measures taken by the government are hopeless, they are making things worse. The measures for exchange control are bad and the restrictions on gold are making things worse.
How ferocious is the current bear market?
India currently has serious problems, and I am not optimistic about India. India is a very exciting country to visit, but as far as stock markets is concerned, I am not hopeful.
The rupee touched a new low of 63 on Monday. Do you think it can test 65 levels?
I am short on India because of the currency, and one of the reasons why I am making money is because the currency has gone down. I don't know what's going to happen to the world or to the Indian government. But I am judging Indian markets every day, every week, every month. So far, the government is making more mistakes and that's not going to solve the problem. Debt is going higher and the balance of trade is going higher as well. The Indian government just doesn't just understand economics.
Your prophecies on commodities have always been true. Which are the commodities you are currently betting on?
I always like things when things are depressed. I would look at sugar as an opportunity, as it is down 75% from its all-time high. I own gold and silver but at the moment I am not buying gold or silver. I think there would be a chance to buy gold or silver sometime next year. India is the largest buyer of gold, and when the largest buyer of gold stops purchasing from global markets, there will be a change in the demand-supply scenario.
India seems to have lost the opportunity to benefit from falling commodity prices and now with currency depreciation, commodity prices have become expensive. Where have we gone wrong in our policies?
The government has made so many mistakes, which has led the country into this position. Whatever happens now, it is not going to help India. If commodity prices go down, it will not help because the currency is going down. The government should realise that India has made mistakes, and it should start correcting those mistakes. The necessary actions may be painful for a while, but if you delay things, one has to pay a price.
Singapore-based Rogers, who is chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests Inc, says the government just doesn't understand economics. "Debt is rising and the balance of trade is going higher. The government is making more mistakes and that's not going to solve the problem," he said in an interview to ET. Edited excerpts:
The government and the Reserve Bank have announced a slew of reforms and policies this year to revive economic growth. What is your view on these measures?
I have been shorting India due to many reasons. The currency is in a mess, the country has very high debt, and debt-to-GDP ratio is going up every year. I am very concerned about the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit situation. The measures taken by the government are hopeless, they are making things worse. The measures for exchange control are bad and the restrictions on gold are making things worse.
How ferocious is the current bear market?
India currently has serious problems, and I am not optimistic about India. India is a very exciting country to visit, but as far as stock markets is concerned, I am not hopeful.
The rupee touched a new low of 63 on Monday. Do you think it can test 65 levels?
I am short on India because of the currency, and one of the reasons why I am making money is because the currency has gone down. I don't know what's going to happen to the world or to the Indian government. But I am judging Indian markets every day, every week, every month. So far, the government is making more mistakes and that's not going to solve the problem. Debt is going higher and the balance of trade is going higher as well. The Indian government just doesn't just understand economics.
Your prophecies on commodities have always been true. Which are the commodities you are currently betting on?
I always like things when things are depressed. I would look at sugar as an opportunity, as it is down 75% from its all-time high. I own gold and silver but at the moment I am not buying gold or silver. I think there would be a chance to buy gold or silver sometime next year. India is the largest buyer of gold, and when the largest buyer of gold stops purchasing from global markets, there will be a change in the demand-supply scenario.
India seems to have lost the opportunity to benefit from falling commodity prices and now with currency depreciation, commodity prices have become expensive. Where have we gone wrong in our policies?
The government has made so many mistakes, which has led the country into this position. Whatever happens now, it is not going to help India. If commodity prices go down, it will not help because the currency is going down. The government should realise that India has made mistakes, and it should start correcting those mistakes. The necessary actions may be painful for a while, but if you delay things, one has to pay a price.
There are reports that the US 1Federal Reserve may start winding up its stimulus programme sometime soon. How negative is the sentiment among investors globally?
I am worried about the global economy because this is all artificial money. Things are looking better because the world is printing money. All the major central banks including the US, Japan, UK are printing money. This is all artificial, and this is going to end badly, when it does. Nobody so far had success by printing money.
There are fears of a sovereign downgrade for India...
I don't pay any attention to rating agencies as they do not make money for you, so why should you pay attention to them? If they file any downgrades, then you may find bottoms in markets, may be that would be a time to buy again.
We have serious problems on the currency front and there are concerns over rising current account deficit . What would be your advice to policy makers?
I am worried about the global economy because this is all artificial money. Things are looking better because the world is printing money. All the major central banks including the US, Japan, UK are printing money. This is all artificial, and this is going to end badly, when it does. Nobody so far had success by printing money.
There are fears of a sovereign downgrade for India...
I don't pay any attention to rating agencies as they do not make money for you, so why should you pay attention to them? If they file any downgrades, then you may find bottoms in markets, may be that would be a time to buy again.
We have serious problems on the currency front and there are concerns over rising current account deficit . What would be your advice to policy makers?
Readers' opinions (122)
1
3
2
excellent points. Especially with the point on commodities and rupee. We missed the commodity downturn, and didnt managed to keep Rupee value. Because the Fin Secratary is busy making gold plated toilets, minister busy with getting in to contracts with malaysian, middle eastern companies as his term is just an year more. PM - if he exists then he must be sleeping.
The comment by Jim , "Somebody should get rid of these absurd regulations, absurd bureaucracy, and start all over again, so that India can be a great nation again". Remind me Mr.Rogers, when was India great in our life time? India is in a real bad financial crisis because this is the way people (the voters) want it. People like welfare schemes because they don't have to work and the corrupt Politicians and bureaucrats exploit these dumb people as voter bank to stay in power. The only difference is Congress has done this so well for more than 50 years since independence. Indian politicians are so corrupt that the crisis is going to explode when the currency collapses and inflation skyrockets and the middle class is going to their shirts and pants and India is the next Argentian multiplied by 50 times.
HAHAHAHA!!!!!!!! India's so-called economy is really just based on siphoning other countries' economies. Cut off the visas and the job-robber spigot dries up, doesn't it?
Jim Roger is a crook. You cannot trust what he says.He started to tell that he will put all his Money in China and live ther and give up his american Passport as he does not believe in USA. Now he is sitting in Singapore as no one listens his lies in Europe. His theory of ivest in commodities has proven wrong, He also said buy Gold and you know where Gold is.
Does not believe in USA? You mean those millions of genius Indians aren't keeping the US economy booming as promised? I am SHOCKED. As for crooks, what do you call the millions of Indian conmen cleaning out the US economy via remittances and wrecked companies?
1
3
3
In short we need to get a completely new leader with fresh ideas. Modi is best bet with his clean, no nonsense and pro growth style of working. It will be good if India can go on path of Less Government and Better Governance. Socialistic policies of Congress just do not work.
1
1
1
Yes ....he is right......India is in CLUTCH of MOST corrupt & hopeless NETAGANG
2
3
3
Amartya sen is the only optimistic guy or the paid Congress guy.
1
3
3
Amartya Sen is a jhola chaap pappu ka deewana.
"The government has absurd restrictions in agriculture. India has been, and should be, one of the great agriculture nations of the world. It has land, soil, water everything, if you see the population, there are very smart Indians. There are enormous regulations in the country. Somebody should get rid of these absurd regulations, absurd bureaucracy, and start all over again" Jim Rogers is echoing the sentiments of many Indians. The land acquisition act is dated 1894, politicians are swindling money of this law, don't want this law to be replaced. There are so many antiquated laws, which have outlived their utilities. Government departments are inefficient, corrupt and uninspiring. How can entrepreneurship thrive when such is the state of government and governance ? Reform should start from the government by making it more responsive, transparent and accountable to people.
2
4
1
Our Finance minister and RBI Governor must heed the sound advise of Jim Rogers and take immediate corrective steps to arrest the further slide of the Rupee and also strive to make it a stronger Currency it once was.
Cmon government wake up...its gttng worse day by day...
1
2
2
Its a shame that Govt would not respond to such serious condition of our economy, and only try to fool people by introducing bills which may get votes for them, but bleed the economy further!
1st have an analysis abt ur countries debt to GDP.
Jim criticize more times American government then India. He is one of few out spoken truth teller in investment world. He left USA because of coming problem in western countries. You need to read more about Jim then comment on him.
2
2
first check your currency and politics before advising Jim Rogers to check debt to GDP of his country. United States has best politician in the world, they can dodge the rise of political Islam and still buy crude oil from them. Their politician could make the USD a globally accepted currency which eventually means they can stay comfortable at even high Debt to GDP ratio. Check your, your country's 'Aukat'. Politicians can fool you by saying '70% will be benefitted' because of food subsidy bill (a white lie) and idiot media can't question government on statistics forget about opinions..
1
2
2
good point of view
2
2
Where is Amartya sen? May be rogers doesnt know aobut secular and communal funda. Tell rogers about your funda and how great UPA government is.
"The Indian government just doesn't understand economics" : “The government has made so many mistakes, which has led the country into this position†These lines sum it up all! When I think back to what has happened in the last decade, I could very well correlate the mess we are in as a country! I dont want India to become a Zimbabwe or Egypt. God bless and save my country!!!
1
1
1
Since Rogers is a foreigner pointing out the deficiences in our economy, I am sure the government will listen now atleast. Our country is used to listening only to foreign voices and experts and not to locals.
2
4
1
Jim Rogers has sound credentials backed up by his long experience and it is up tp our Finance Minister and our RBI Governor to heed his sound advise and take corrective action.
2
2
our govt listens to only foreign and 'Secular' voices... Jim Roger sounds communal..
"There are enormous regulations in the country. Somebody should get rid of these absurd regulations, absurd bureaucracy, and start all over again, so that India can be a great nation again." - This Govt is BLOCKING EVERY INDUSTRY/Putting unnecesary HURDLES to growth for almost EVERYBODY.
That's right moron - it's called communism and it's a proven failure everywhere.
We need USA Work Permits, and we NEED USA Work Permits NOW!
Keep dreaming - ain't gonna happen. Indians have already wrecked US econ. No way we are going to let more of you in. India's entire ahem... economy is based on siphoning other countries. As soon as we cut off your work permits, India's ahem.... "economy" collapses. HAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!
"The Indian government just doesn't just understand economics" - All THANKS to Jobs Reservations for Tribals/Govt. Vote Banks...
Junk rating for India in a few months, if not weeks. See rupee soon at 75 to the dollar, maybe even 80. Thank you Congress and UPA! Junk nation, junk government, junk population, junk policies, junk goods and services. junk currency, and eventually junk credit rating for this glorified beggar nation that thinks it is a "superpower". LOL! Nation of low class beggars and scoundrels.
2
2
thats how BHARAT NIRWAN (oops NIRMAN) takes place
2
3
3
Govt needs to take a note of it...
Stop buying foreign matrials of any format.
And where will you get functioning products from? India? HAHAHAHAHA!
2
2
changing whom you vote and elect should be easier
People are so used to imported goods now that changing the habit is so difficult.
Does India even make an operating system? LOL.
Why do u want to savethis coutry for our politicians? Remeber The products produced in India are sub standards and our people are forced buy low quality products at very high price and govt get a huge tax income. Let our companies make quality products and compete with international market so that india can export. If u make low qulity products and dump on our own people who is benifiting??? Before you comment think twice. What we write here is seen by many people and it affects their perception.If u cannot sell something in international market, the money is made only by the company and goverment. Losser is the indian citizen who is forced to buy poor quality goods....
2
4
6
What a shame. It is no doubt he is talking bitter truth. Let the current so called super economists like PC, MMS, Ahulwalia and Rangarajan take this credential along with them when the current Government falls.
certainly... i am also not hopeful...
Indias condition is bad on CAD side but this guys comments are slightly suspcious because he says -- India please buy gold you are largest consumer of gold if you stop buying the prices will fall and i hold investment in gold and silver
1
2
1
Outstanding Interview... India's main problem: 1.25 BILLION OF POPULATION.
No: India's main problem: STUPIDITY. With a workforce that size you ought to be able to outcompete anyone.
1
1
2
No, it's corruption !!! corruption & deeeeep rooted corruption !!!
No. It is absurd regulation which provides breeding ground to corruption.
Guys, to make things worse, the Government has pushed one more subsidy candidate viz., the food bill. Is this required at all at this point of time. Government's target is only to score in the 2014 elections, it is painful to see India going down.
Very true!!! More debt....
3
3
More than that willingness to work, will decrease among indians......
Or a decrease in stupidity. HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2
3
2
BY UPA RULE WE GET PEOPLE LIKE THESE WHO GIVE US FREE ADVISE ON WHAT INDIA SHALL DO IN OUR ECONOMIC FRONT FOR UPLIFTMENT & AND FILL THEIR COFFERS.
"The government has made so many mistakes, which has led the country into this position. Whatever happens now, it is not going to help India" is a certificate for the incompetence of the decision-makers.Party form of Government is the root cause and the sooner it is dismantled and state policies as given in the Directive Principles of Sate Policy are carefully implemented, the better it will be for the country.Art.39(b) will come in for prioritised attention.The Congress and its allies seem to be pushing the people of India into a revolution when they hope to flee the country to feed on the huge sums stashed abroad.If a revolution happens these political looters should not be allowed to leave the country.The trusting people of India have been fed false promises all these years and taken for a donkey ride.
2
3
2
Seem to be an opportunistic interview and comment. You should have given this comment at-least an year back to show your true value Roger Saheb.
1
1
1
India is a developing country and on way to become a super power.
1
1
2
Looks like a type.. India is country with mafia developing like cancer inside and way to become super pauper.
2
4
1
Very old dialogue .. and not practical ..
Jim Rogers belongs to RSS/BJP.
This is the only mentality took our country down to this level. Dont be in any political party also dont trust a political leader taking a policy stand sitting in his/her house with business people secretly. Look what is good for our country and what not. Hit this pioliticans and let then run out of this country...If u play tom and jerry we will see the ground level below africa...becose africa is improving and they r in better shape.According to BBC report our poverty level is much much higher than Africa.
1
1
2
Na-haar maan munna! Go and learn ABC again!!
2
4
6
Whatever not palatable is the action of RSS/BJP for Congress supporters. See the negligence they are showing. For them Congress ruling is more important than the country itself.
2
4
1
ha ha ha .... It would be nice if he join RSS/BJP ..
2
4
2
Are you a ardent follower of Diggy Raja, atleast your comment suggests that.
2
3
2
He is telling the true picture which CONgi govt is still in denial mode. You seem to belong to CONgi govt for whom whoever opposes them hails from RSS / BJP.
Oh dear, none of you could understand the satire in what I said. anything that goes against them is RSS/BJP whether it is Anna movement, former CAG Head Vinod Rai, Senior Haryana IAS officer Ashok Khemka, the list is endless. So that could hide their wrong doing by labeling people communal. The most disgusting and disturbing thing is that there are people who believe in such stories and vote for them.
2
4
2
Sooner than later the country would get a junk status by everyone except the Italian mafia.
All this is the problem is this doti clad self proclaimed only educated whiz man on the block, first throw him out of the party and Finance ministry all will be ok, he has made common man suffer to maximum by just making small aam admi to pay tax, when he and his cham chas have eated billions, this $ upsurge is just to bring back all the $ stashed abroad by this congress and cash it more so that they can spend in the election and again get back and ruin this country, only god has to atleast give them some sense that they dont have life remaining with them to spend what they have looted, so better stop now and atleast do something good for the country. our PM should first resign all will then fall in place
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/govt-measures-are-hopeless-i-am-not-optimistic-on-india-jim-rogers/articleshow/21924773.cms