Congress clear loser, but BJP far from victory, opinion poll says
Times Now-CVoter opinion poll projects that the NDA would win 156 seats with the BJP getting 131 of them, while the UPA would win 136 with the Congress pegged to 119.
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The poll estimated that the 'Third Front', which includes the Left, Samajwadi Party, RJD, TDP, BJD and some other regional parties, would win 129 seats and the 'Fourth Front' including the BSP, Trinamool Congress, AIADMK and others, would win 122. In short, the elections are projected to end up as a fairly even four-way split, though some of these formations like the Third and Fourth Fronts are not really firmly established, at least as of now, and others may also morph in the coming months.
If the predictions come true, the SP, BSP, Left, AIADMK and Trinamool would each have between 22 and 33 seats, possibly giving them a crucial role in the formation of the next government in New Delhi. With the two big national parties put together not winning even half of the seats, the regional bosses would really be able to call the shots in such a scenario.
Among the bigger states, the poll projects SP and BSP between them winning three-fourths of the 80 seats in UP, with the SP picking up 33 and the BSP 27. The Congress, which won 21 seats in the state in 2009, is projected to win just five in 2014 and the BJP is estimated to gain just a couple of seats to get 12.
In Maharashtra, it's advantage NDA and bad news for Sharad Pawar's NCP, if the poll has got it right. It estimates that the Shiv Sena will win 15 seats of the state's 48 seats and the BJP 11, the same as the Congress. The NCP is projected to get just 6 seats, Raj Thackeray's MNS opening its account with 3.
In Andhra Pradesh, a state in which the Congress won 33 of the 42 seats in 2009, the CVoter poll projects it will win a mere 7. Jagan Reddy's YSR Congress, a party that didn't exist in 2009, is estimated to win 14 seats and the Telengana Rashtra Samiti 11, leaving just 7 for Chandrababu Naidu's TDP. Of course, the AP numbers could change dramatically once the formation of Telangana is announced, as expected soon.
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee will continue to fly high despite her alliance with the Congress having broken up since the last elections. The poll projects that the Trinamool Congress will win 22 of the state's 42 seats and the Left will win 17, a gain of two seats for each of them, while the Congress tally will drop from 6 to 2.
In Bihar, the break-up between Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and the BJP seems to be hurting the former more. In fact, the poll projects that the BJP will emerge as the single largest party in the state winning 14 of the 40 seats, Lalu Prasad's RJD coming a close second with 12 and JD(U) in third place at 11.
In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK is projected to sweep, winning 29 of the state's 39 seats. The DMK, which won 18 seats last time is expected to drop to a mere 5 and the Congress might have to settle for a lone MP from the southern state.
In Madhya Pradesh, the projections show a fairly close battle between the two national parties with the BJP winning 16 of the 29 seats and the Congress 12, leaving one for the BSP. That would be a repeat of the 2009 results.
In Karnataka, on the other hand, the prediction is for a near total reversal of the 2009 results. In those elections, the BJP had won 19 of the 28 seats, giving the party its largest chunk of seats from any state. The Congress had won a mere 6, the remaining 3 going to H D Deve Gowda's JD(S). This time round, the poll predicts, the Congress will win 17, which would make that the largest chunk of Congress MPs from any state, while the BJP will get just 8 seats. The JD(S) tally will remain unchanged.
In Gujarat, not surprisingly, the BJP is predicted to sweep, winning 21 of the state's 26 seats, leaving just 5 for the Congress. This would also mean that the BJP would have more Lok Sabha MPs from Narendra Modi's home state than from any other state.
In Rajasthan, where the Congress nearly swept in 2009, winning 20 of the 25 seats, the estimates are that its tally could drop to 9 while the BJP's tally could rise from 4 to 15.