Election tracker: Is this Jayalalithaa’s Jyoti Basu moment?
by Anant Rangaswami 10 mins ago July 23, 2013 8:29 PM
In the event of a hung assembly, could we see the second woman prime minister in India – Tamil Nadu’s J Jayalalithaa?
Stranger things have happened. As historian, Ram Guha said yesterday on CNN-IBN, once near non-entities like HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujral, two prime ministers with no semblance of national stature, became prime minister, anything is possible.
But before we get there, let’s take a look at the Tamil Nadu results of CNN-IBN-Hindu survey conducted by CSDS.
Jayalalithaaa. PTI
The highlights: incumbent chief minister J Jayalalithaa’s ADMK is projected to emerge as the largest single party in the state, with 16-20 seats (the Congress-DMK combine is projected to deliver 9-17 seats). See table here.
More details: Even something as seemingly divisive as J Jayalalithaa’sIPL stance is not unpopular: Forty-six percent of TN’s electorate believe Jayalalithaa’s government is better than the previous DMK government; a total of 46 percent answered, ‘fully justified’ or ‘somewhat justified’ when asked on their opinion on the Tamil Nadu government’s decision to not allow Sri Lankan players to participate inIPL cricket matches in Chennai.
While the survey focused on the next Lok Sabha poll, there is every indicator that J Jayalalithaa’s party will be impossible to dislodge from power in Tamil Nadu.
Compared to the other political leaders who have staked a claim to the leadership of the mythical third front, Jayalalithaa seems to be the most safe, the most sure of delivering MPs. Bihar’s Nitish Kumar is on shaky ground, West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee finds her party in disarray and Odisha’s Naveen Patnaik is hardly heard (or written about) outside his home state.
Forget the third front – what if jugglery after the next Lok Sabha polls results in Jayalalithaa’s wins being critical to the formation of a government? Could we see her, with control of 16-20 seats, as a compromise, as the CPM’s Jyoti Basu was once seen?
The question that could arise is whether India Inc sees her as acceptable. While the survey does not cover this area, Tamil Nadu has not had a bad industrial climate. The concerns of India Inc could be about the appalling power situation in the state and the pathetic state of urban transportation. Having said that, many states fare worse on these two parameters.
So could we see, for the first time in India, an erstwhile actor as a Prime Minister? Considering the fragmented state of Indian politics, it’s very, very possible.
Key points about survey: Note: 1. All figures are in percentage and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Sample size is 786.
3. Question asked are: a) If we compare the present AIADMK government of Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu with the earlier DMK government of Karunanidhi, which one of the two is better in your opinion?
b) Now I will ask you about a few events that have taken place in Tamil Nadu over the last one year. Please tell me about each of them, were they justified or unjustified? (Probe further whether ‘fully’ or ‘somewhat’ justified or unjustified)
2. Sample size is 786.
3. Question asked are: a) If we compare the present AIADMK government of Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu with the earlier DMK government of Karunanidhi, which one of the two is better in your opinion?
b) Now I will ask you about a few events that have taken place in Tamil Nadu over the last one year. Please tell me about each of them, were they justified or unjustified? (Probe further whether ‘fully’ or ‘somewhat’ justified or unjustified)
