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It really is the economy, stupid -- S. Rukmini on CNN IBN The Hindu Survey results

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Published: July 22, 2013 20:54 IST | Updated: July 23, 2013 02:17 IST
CNN IBN-The Hindu Election Tracker

It really is the economy, stupid

Rukmini S
  • In this file photo shoppers crowd a vegetable market in Ahmedabad. Results from an opinion poll conducted by CSDS for CNN-IBN and The Hindu indicate that price rise will dominate voter concerns in 2014.
    APIn this file photo shoppers crowd a vegetable market in Ahmedabad. Results from an opinion poll conducted by CSDS for CNN-IBN and The Hindu indicate that price rise will dominate voter concerns in 2014.
  • Development and the economy are the top concerns for all groups except women for whom ‘price rise’ is the greatest concern. Photo: Basheer
    Development and the economy are the top concerns for all groups except women for whom ‘price rise’ is the greatest concern. Photo: Basheer
  • All figures are in per cent and rounded off; hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data. Question asked in 2013: Now I will ask you about some important issues. Please tell me about each issue whether they have increased, remained same or decreased during the last four years of UPA-2’s rule? Price rise. The question in 2011 was worded differently as - Please tell me whether the control on price rise has improved, remained same or deteriorated? Those who said ‘deteriorated’ have been presented as ‘increased’ and those who said ‘improved’ have been presented as decreased in the table.
    All figures are in per cent and rounded off; hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data. Question asked in 2013: Now I will ask you about some important issues. Please tell me about each issue whether they have increased, remained same or decreased during the last four years of UPA-2’s rule? Price rise. The question in 2011 was worded differently as - Please tell me whether the control on price rise has improved, remained same or deteriorated? Those who said ‘deteriorated’ have been presented as ‘increased’ and those who said ‘improved’ have been presented as decreased in the table.
  • All figures are in per cent and rounded off; hence they may not add up to 100. Question asked: What will be the single most important issue for you when you vote in the next 2014 Lok Sabha election?
    All figures are in per cent and rounded off; hence they may not add up to 100. Question asked: What will be the single most important issue for you when you vote in the next 2014 Lok Sabha election?

Development, price rise and jobs will be the overriding voter concerns in 2014 Lok Sabha poll

Results from a nearly 20,000-strong opinion poll conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and The Hindu indicate that ‘development and the economy’ and ‘price rise’ will dominate voter concerns in 2014. Corruption comes in at a distant fifth, just half as important to voters as ‘development and the economy’.
Moreover, these numbers hold strong, with small variations, across income groups and social categories. ‘Development and the economy’ is the top concern for all groups including Muslims, except women for whom ‘price rise’ is the greatest concern; unsurprising in a country in which women still do the lion’s share of household work.
With the International Monetary Fund lowering India’s growth projections for this fiscal year to 5.6% and food price inflation escalating further towards the end of June when the survey was conducted, it seems only logical that the economy and price rise were of greatest concern to voters. The perception of the economy is largely fair or ‘bad’, with just over 20% seeing the economy in “very good” or “good” shape. Respondents from western and central India are more positive about the state of the economy than those in the north, east and south. But with the rupee in trouble and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh warning that there’s a tough year ahead, the UPA has reason to worry that respondents, especially those better off and those living in cities, viewed the BJP as being better at handling economic crises than the economist-led Congress.
More people reported being satisfied with their personal financial conditions than dissatisfied — 59% as against 34% — but this satisfaction rating has been dropping sharply since 2011. The poor report consistently lower satisfaction with their financial situation than the rich in all surveys. Across the spectrum, most seem to agree inequality has risen.
Although income and consumption expenditure have risen and poverty, as the latest Planning Commission figures show, has fallen, the picture on real wages is at best mixed, but with substantial declines in several sectors. But high inflation, especially of food, is eroding the purchasing power of many, particularly the poor. The urban poor, whose real wages have not had the bolstering effect of an employment guarantee scheme and do not produce any food for self-consumption, are most vocal about rising prices; nearly 90% of the urban poor said prices of essential commodities had risen during the tenure of UPA-II, as compared to just over 80% for the whole sample. Perceptions about rising prices are in general far stronger in 2013 than in 2011.
Most respondents place the blame for this with both the government at the Centre and at the States, with another third blaming only the Central government. In Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Karnataka and Bihar, the anti-Centre sentiment is far stronger, with far more respondents in these states blaming the Centre than the State or both for rising prices.
“It really is puzzling, that we have had nearly two years now of consumer price inflation over 10%, and nobody seems to be making an issue out of it. In earlier times, an unanticipated spike in prices could topple governments. But the opposition just hasn’t been taking up these questions,” Pronab Sen, economist and former chief statistician of India, told The Hindu.
With the government having added nearly no net new jobs between 2005 and 2010, it isn’t surprising that nearly 60% of respondents said that employment opportunities had either remained the same or decreased under the UPA-II. The 2011 Census showed that for the first time urban job creation had outstripped rural job creation, and these numbers find an echo in the CSDS survey; 34% of urban voters believe job opportunities have improved as against 27% of rural voters. While more urban voters believe job opportunities have increased than decreased, the reverse is true for rural voters. Women, whose rates of workforce participation are not just low but are falling as the National Sample Survey shows, report being far less satisfied with employment opportunities than men.

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid/article4941378.ece?homepage=true
Published: July 22, 2013 20:54 IST | Updated: July 23, 2013 03:51 IST

Nitish down, BJP up but the story is incomplete

Vidya Subrahmaniam
The Nitish Kumar government in Bihar is up against heavy odds, according to the 2013 CNN-IBN-The Hindu Election Tracker poll. The survey shows that the State government’s performance and approval ratings have taken a huge hit compared to 2011. File photo
PTIThe Nitish Kumar government in Bihar is up against heavy odds, according to the 2013 CNN-IBN-The Hindu Election Tracker poll. The survey shows that the State government’s performance and approval ratings have taken a huge hit compared to 2011. File photo

No erosion in JD(U)’s vote share after its split with BJP

The Nitish Kumar Government in Bihar is up against heavy odds, according to the 2013 The Hindu-CNN-IBN-CSDS election tracker. The survey shows that the state government’s performance and approval ratings have taken a huge hit compared to 2011. Down from 90 per cent to 69 per cent measured for performance. and from 87 per cent to 54 per cent measured for approval/popularity.
To make matters worse, the survey shows wide disapproval for Mr. Kumar's decision to break with the Bharatiya Janata Party on the issue of Narendra Modi leading the National Democratic Alliance. Forty-one per cent respondents from the Kurmi-Koeri castes, who form Mr. Kumar’s core constituency, said he should have accepted Mr. Modi. This flies against the perception that Mr. Kumar broke with the BJP in response to demands from his voters.
The good news for the Chief Minister is that there seems to be no erosion in the Janata Dal(United)’s vote share post its split with the BJP. If anything the JD(U)’share of votes is shown to be up by a percentage point, which could of course also be due to the JD(U) being able to contest more seats. On the other hand, the survey shows a significant gain in the BJP’s vote share which could be because of Mr. Modi.
The survey makes no mention of alliances. Clearly with his own vote base intact , Mr. Kumar can more than recover his fortunes if he chooses to align with the Congress.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/nitish-down-bjp-up-but-the-story-is-incomplete/article4941319.ece?homepage=true
Published: July 22, 2013 20:54 IST | Updated: July 23, 2013 02:09 IST

Left vote plummets in West Bengal

Special Correspondent
  • West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. File photo
    PTIWest Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. File photo
  • West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. File photo
    The HinduWest Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. File photo
  • Figures for 2011 based on the State of the Nation survey conducted by CSDS in July that year.
    Figures for 2011 based on the State of the Nation survey conducted by CSDS in July that year.
  • All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Vote share estimates are based on the voting intentions declared by respondents through a secret dummy ballot. These raw figures have been adjusted by the CSDS team for the known patterns of under-reporting for independents and very small parties and over-reporting for the ruling party/alliance to arrive at the vote share estimates presented here. Undecided voters are those who did not disclose their vote preference. They have been excluded while deciding the estimated vote share.
    All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Vote share estimates are based on the voting intentions declared by respondents through a secret dummy ballot. These raw figures have been adjusted by the CSDS team for the known patterns of under-reporting for independents and very small parties and over-reporting for the ruling party/alliance to arrive at the vote share estimates presented here. Undecided voters are those who did not disclose their vote preference. They have been excluded while deciding the estimated vote share.

If general elections are held now, the Trinamool Congress will improve on its 2009 vote share in West Bengal by one percentage point, and the Congress by eight percentage points, a CSDS countrywide poll says. The Left Parties’ share, the poll notes, would plummet from the 43 per cent it received in 2009 to 28 per cent; the BJP’s would double from the six per cent it had to 12 per cent.
Muslims, the 2013 The Hindu-CNN-IBN-CSDS election tracker says, marginally preferred the previous Buddhadeb Bhattacharya-led Left Front government to Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool administration, 37 per cent plumping for the past, 36 per cent for the present. And while rural Bengal is overwhelmingly with the Trinamool, 39 per cent as against 29 per cent for the Left, the opposite is true of urban areas: 39 per cent hanker for Mr. Bhattacharya; 37 per cent are content with Ms. Banerjee.
The CSDS poll also suggests that in the event of a Third Front government coming to power in 2014, Ms. Banerjee would be the third choice nationally for PM, polling eight per cent, behind Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar (12 per cent) and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa (nine per cent).
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/left-vote-plummets-in-west-bengal/article4941349.ece?homepage=true
Published: July 23, 2013 01:57 IST | Updated: July 23, 2013 02:10 IST

What Hindus can & should be proud of

Ramachandra Guha

Those who care for the future of the religion should valorise the work of reformers who rid an ancient, ossified faith of its divisions, prejudices, and closed-mindedness

bhadralok friend of mine is of the view that the Government of India should celebrate every December 16 as Vijay Diwas, Victory Day, to mark the surrender in 1971 of the Pakistani forces in Dhaka to the advancing Indian Army. My friend argues that such a celebration would take Indians in general, and Hindus in particular, out of the pacifist, defeatist mindset that he claims has so crippled them. The triumph in Dhaka represents for him the finest moment in a millenia otherwise characterised by Indian (and more specifically Hindu) humiliation at the hands of foreigners.
I was reminded of my friend’s fond fantasy when reading about the posters in Mumbai recently put up by members of the Bharatiya Janata Party. These carry portraits of a prominent BJP leader, with two accompanying slogans: ‘I AM A HINDU NATIONALIST,’ in English, and ‘Garv sé Kaho Ham Hindu Hain’, in Hindi. The latter slogan needs perhaps to be translated for south Indian readers, and set in context for younger ones. ‘Proudly Proclaim Our Hindu-Ness’, would be a faithful rendition. The slogan originates in the Ram Janmabhoomi campaign of the 1980s and 1990s, when it was used by the VHP, RSS, BJP, and Bajrang Dal cadres to mobilise men and materials in the drive to demolish a 16th century mosque in Ayodhya believed by many to be sited on the birthplace of the (mythical) God Ram.
Victory in Dhaka
Should Hindus be proud of the Indian Army’s victory in Dhaka in 1971? Perhaps as Indians, but not specifically as Hindus. The war had its basis in the savage repression of Bengalis in East Pakistan by the West Pakistan Army. The refugees who came to India were both Hindus and Muslims. The help rendered to them by the Government of India did not discriminate according to their faith. As for the Indian military campaign, the chief commander in the field was a Jew, his immediate superior a Sikh. A Parsi served as Chief of Army Staff. His own superior, the Prime Minister of India, had notoriously been disallowed from entering the Jagannath temple in Puri because she had not married a Hindu.
To be sure, many soldiers and officers in the Indian Army were of Hindu origin. Yet they never saw themselves in narrowly communal terms. In our armed forces, then and now, Hindu and Muslim, Christian and Sikh, Parsi and Jew, lived, laboured and struggled together.
Hindu in intent and content
Unlike the military campaign in East Pakistan in 1971, the campaign to build a temple in Ayodha was unquestionably Hindu in intent and content. No Muslims or Sikhs or Parsis or Jews or Christians participated in it. But should Hindus have been proud of it? I rather think not. In a society where so many are without access to adequate education, health care and housing, where malnutrition is rife and where safety and environmental standards are violated every minute, to invest so much political energy and human capital in the demolition of a mosque and its replacement with a brand-new temple seemed wildly foolish, if not downright Machiavellian. As it turned out, the Ram Janmabhoomi campaign led to two decades of strife across northern and western India, with thousands of people losing their lives and hundreds of thousands their homes and livelihoods.
The war of 1971 was not a Hindu war, and the destruction of the Babri Masjid was not something that could fill Hindus with pride. What then, should Hindus be proud of? The answer is that rather than seek for one defining moment, one heroic triumph, Hindus who care for the fate and future of Hinduism should instead valorise the quiet, persistent work of reformers down the centuries to rid an ancient, ossified faith of its divisions, its prejudices, and its closed-mindedness.
The story of Hindu pride that I wish to tell also begins with Bengal, not with the surrender of the Pakistani Army in 1971, but with the work in the early 19th century of Rammohun Roy, who was unarguably the first great Indian modernist. Rammohun campaigned for the abolition of sati, for greater rights for women more generally, for the embrace of modern scientific education and for a liberal spirit of free enquiry and intellectual debate. His example was carried forward by other Bengali reformers, among them Ishwar Chandra Vidyasagar and Swami Vivekananda, who focussed on, among other things, education for women and the abolition of caste distinctions.
Epicentre of radical thinking
The torch first lit in Bengal was taken over, and made even brighter, in Maharashtra, which in the late 19th and early 20th centuries was the epicentre of reformist and radical thinking in India. The pernicious practice of ‘untouchability’ was attacked from below by Jotirau Phule and from above by Gopal Krishna Gokhale. Maharashtra also gave birth to India’s first home-grown feminists, such as Tarabai Shinde and Pandita Ramabai, who wrote searing tracts against patriarchal practices and motivated young girls to emancipate themselves through modern education.
In 1915, Mohandas K. Gandhi came back to India after two decades in the diaspora. Living in South Africa, he had been seized of the need to build harmonious, mutually beneficial, relations between Hindus and Muslims. This commitment to religious pluralism he now renewed and reaffirmed. Meanwhile, he progressively became more critical of caste discrimination. To begin with, he attacked ‘untouchability’ while upholding the ancient ideal ofvarnashramadharma. Then he began advocating inter-mixing and inter-dining, and eventually, inter-marriage itself.
Gandhi was pushed to take more radical positions by B.R. Ambedkar, the outstanding lawyer-scholar who was of ‘Untouchable’ origins himself. A modernist and rationalist, Dr. Ambedkar believed that for Dalits to escape from oppression, they had to not look for favours from guilt-ridden reformers but themselves ‘educate, agitate and organise’ their way to emancipation. He remains an inspirational figure, whose work and legacy remain relevant for Dalit and Suvarna alike.
When India became independent in 1947, a central question the new nation faced was the relation of faith to state. There was a strong movement to create India as a ‘Hindu Rashtra’, a mirror-image of the Islamic nation that was Pakistan. The person who stood most firmly against this idea was the first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. In a letter written to Chief Ministers on October 15, 1947, he reminded them that “we have a Muslim minority who are so large in numbers that they cannot, even if they want to, go anywhere else. They have got to live in India. This is a basic fact about which there can be no argument. Whatever the provocation from Pakistan and whatever the indignities and horrors inflicted on non-Muslims there, we have got to deal with this minority in a civilised manner. We must give them security and the rights of citizens in a democratic State.”
Gandhi was a heterodox Hindu, who was detested by the priestly orthodoxy; so much so that the Sankaracharyas once even organised a signature campaign that asked the British to declare Gandhi a non-Hindu. Nehru was a lapsed Hindu, who never entered a temple in adult life. He too was intensely disliked by the sants and shakha heads who arrogate to themselves the right to speak for Hindus. Ambedkar was a renegade Hindu, who was born into the faith yet decided in the end to leave it, through a dramatic conversion ceremony weeks before his death.
For all their lapses and departures from orthodoxy — or perhaps because of them — Gandhi, Ambedkar, and Nehru were the three 20th century figures who did most to rid Hinduism of its ills and excesses, who worked most heroically to nurture the spirit of equal citizenship that the Laws of Manu so explicitly deny. The work that they, and the equally remarkable reformers who preceded them, did, are what Hindus should be most proud of.
Entrenched prejudices
That said, Hindus still have much to be ashamed about. As the recent spate of attacks on Dalits and women shows, deep-rooted caste and patriarchal prejudices remain entrenched in many parts of India. Meanwhile, in countries that neighbour ours, Islamic fundamentalism is on the rise, giving ammunition to parties in India who represent the most sectarian and exclusive aspects of Hinduism themselves. The battles inaugurated by the likes of Rammohun Roy and Jotirau Phule, and carried forward by Ambedkar and Nehru and company, have now to be fought afresh. The abolition of caste prejudices; the elimination of gender hierarchies; the promotion of religious pluralism — these remain the elusive ideals of those who wish (proudly or otherwise) to call themselves Hindu and Indian.
(Ramachandra Guha’s books include Makers of Modern India. He can be reached at ramachandraguha@yahoo.in)
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/what-hindus-can-should-be-proud-of/article4941930.ece?homepage=true&css=print

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