RBI may ease up on monetary tightening if rupee stabilises; Govt cuts growth forecast
The Reserve Bank of India may consider relaxing its monetary tightening measures once the pressure on the rupee eases, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has said. He also promised more reforms on the foreign direct investment front, besides bringing down the current account deficit to below the 2012-13 level.
“The most immediate cause of worry is the recent volatility in foreign exchange markets,” Singh said, inaugurating the annual meeting of industry chamber, Assocham. His statement comes in the backdrop of the rupee depreciating nearly 10 per cent since April 1. After dipping to 61 against the dollar, it has now recovered to just under 60.

Rate hike concern

To curb volatility, the RBI first injected dollars into the market. This helped to some extent. On Monday, it took steps to raise short-term interest rates for banks on additional daily borrowing, besides capping the daily normal borrowing at Rs 75,000 crore. There was concern that these measures would result in higher interest rates on retail and corporate loans .
However, Singh said: “These steps are not meant to signal an increase in the long-term interest rates. They are designed to contain speculative pressure on the currency.” Banks have already clarified that they will not raise rates. The Finance Minister also spoke on similar lines. Yet, there is some nervousness in the market.
The Prime Minister felt that the sharp depreciation in the rupee was perhaps exacerbated by the high current account deficit, which touched 4.7 per cent in 2012-13. Singh expects this deficit to be much lower in 2013-14 compared with last year. “It will decline further next year. We will use all policy instruments available — fiscal, monetary and supply side interventions - to ensure that the current account deficit declines further over time,” he said. The Prime Minister also expressed optimism on the medium-term prospects of economic growth.

The way ahead

“The fundamentals of our economy are sound and healthy. We have been taking all possible measures to correct imbalances on the macro front,” he said.
Although, he preferred not to make any growth forecast for 2013-14, he said, “The IMF has recently reduced its earlier projection of growth rates for all countries, including India, for 2013. We had targeted 6.5 per cent growth at the time the Budget was presented. But it looks as if it will be lower than that.”
(This article was published on July 19, 2013)