Disgruntled BJP leader LK Advani has surprised friends and foes alike by the rapidity with which he has launched his last political yatra – scuttle Narendra Modi’s ‘campaign Red Fort’. Unless checked firmly, this will happen even at the cost of destroying the momentum gained by the BJP on account of Modi’s popularity and the UPA’s unending saga of corruption and misgovernance.

In typical Advani style, he has moved with surgical precision. The first salvo after his ‘Goa sulk’ failed to prevent Modi’s elevation as campaign committee chief was to ‘signal’ Nitish Kumar, who promptly demanded concrete assurance that the Gujarat strongman would not be named Prime Ministerial candidate without the concurrence of all NDA allies. As this was not an issue with the Akali Dal or Shiv Sena, it was a ruse to give ‘veto power’ to Nitish Kumar, for the benefit of Advani. Kumar has since revealed that he got an assurance from former president Nitin Gadkari (strenuously denied); but in that case why another demand?

With Nitish Kumar formally calling off the alliance with the BJP on Sunday, June 16, the Advani coterie is working overtime to replace Suresh Soni as RSS coordinator with the BJP, as Soni is widely perceived as the power behind Rajnath Singh and Narendra Modi. Though some RSS stalwarts deny such a move is afoot, others say that the organisation did ask Dattatreya Hosbale to step in, but he declined. There is now pressure on sarkaryawah Bhaiyaaji Joshi to replace Soni.

Advani’s aides claim that if he (Advani) works out the post-election coalition, he should have a shot at the Prime Minister’s post before paving the way for Modi. This plan rests on two assumptions. First, that BJP will not win an independent majority. Second, that BJP will not be able to sew up alliances without Advani, and will have to give him veto power.

The first assumption will be tested during the elections; the second can be dismissed with contempt. What the ‘plan’ reveals, however, is that Atal Bihari Vajpayee became the BJP’s first Prime Minister because he was always the RSS’s chosen candidate for the job, a fact recognised by first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru! Deen Dayal Upadhyaya removed ambitious rivals from his path.

Narendra Modi was made Gujarat Chief Minister as a stop gap because Keshubhai Patel had to be removed following sheer incompetence in handling the Bhuj earthquake. Four months later came the unexpected Godhra train burning and subsequent riots. Modi, after initial dithering, rose to the occasion and cemented his leadership.

Despite the ignominy heaped on him by a well-funded brigade, Modi has won national and international acclaim for efficient and corruption-free governance, and made major strides in industrial and agricultural development, solar power, education, reconstruction of Bhuj, and so on.

This has given him a powerful middle-class backing across the nation, and the clamour from this powerful votebank, besides the BJP cadre and colleagues, made Rajnath Singh and the RSS promote him to encash the rising tide of revulsion against the UPA. Within Gujarat, it is no secret that the Parivar led by Dr Pravin Togadia worked to defeat Modi in previous elections. Thus, he was the architect of his programme in the state, and he fashioned his own electoral victory. Hence the Parivar cannot ask Modi to forfeit the fruits of his victory as they could in the case of Advani, where RSS provided the cadre and logistics for the temple movement.

Instead of encouraging BJP dissidents from the States, most notably former party president Nitin Gadkari, to cluster around him, Advani would do well to introspect about the realities of his political career, and his personal and political limitations. His graceless machination against a rising star is causing revulsion among the people and the party rank and file. No Chief Minister, potential Chief Minister, or any party stalwart is supporting his frantic attempts to scuttle Narendra Modi.

Stirring the dissident cauldron in the States, especially those going to the polls this year, could hurt the party. Vasundhara Raje lost the last election in Rajasthan narrowly, on account of sabotage by a veteran leader stoutly supporting Advani. Chhattisgarh recently witnessed a horrific bloodbath by Maoists, which took away the cream of the Congress party leadership; Raman Singh has his hands full battling the menace, nabbing the culprits, and instilling voter confidence in his leadership. Narendra Modi recently visited the State to shore him up.

In Madhya Pradesh, Congress is making a serious bid to wrest back the State. Encouraging dissidents to visit him could create unforeseen problems for Shivraj Singh Chouhan, whom Advani attempted to prop up as a rival to Modi. Does BJP need a fratricidal war at this stage?

Regarding Gujarat, it is pertinent that all anti-Modi leaders are already in the Congress, so whom did Advani invite to Delhi?

Reportedly, at the core committee meeting before Goa, Advani asked Rajnath Singh if BJP was going to announce Modi as the prime minister candidate for the 2014 elections; if it had taken the NDA allies into confidence; if the party had considered the ramifications of Modi’s projection as PM, and the difficulties of running a coalition at the Centre. He particularly objected to the ‘haste’. His agitation grew when told that the cadre wanted to elevate Modi, so it was decided to let him lead the central election campaign committee, while the Prime Ministership could be decided later.

Clearly Sarsanghachalak Mohan Bhagwat erred in providing Advani a face-saver to withdraw his resignation from party posts while retaining chairmanship of the NDA. Advani has reciprocated by upping the ante against Modi. Bhagwat must respond by giving a clear signal that Advani is effectively persona non grata in the Parivar.

More importantly, the farce called NDA must be ended without ado and party leaders told to stop lamenting the exit of Nitish Kumar. This should be taken as the golden opportunity for the revival of the BJP, and plans expedited to bring back leaders like BS Yeddyurappa.

Footnote: Realising that he was nearing his end, former RAW chief and strategic expert B Raman tweeted his testament to the nation on May 22: I decided to back NaMo becoz he is only leader with the required lucidity in thinking, razor-sharp focus on issues & ability to prioritise.

This is possibly the best summation of the nation’s political landscape — a light in the tunnel ahead.